The more I researched the Padres system, the more I liked it.
We all know about Ethan Salas and Jackson Merrill. Both are elite prospects. However, Merrill is much better than I initially thought. He had an incredible 2023 season, showing one of the best hit tools in the minors and growing into some power.
Robby Snelling was among the best pitchers in the MiLB last season, posting a 1.82 ERA over three levels. Dylan Lesko’s ceiling is higher, but there’s more risk with him as he continues to work his way back from TJS. The stuff looks fantastic. Sam Zavalla is one of my favorite players in their system, with tremendous bat speed. He’s still learning the game, but that’s someone in which to invest.
That’s just the top guys. There is plenty of talent throughout the system. It’s good. Really good.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Ethan Salas
- Biggest Mover: Graham Pauley
- Biggest Disappointment: Eguy Rosario – disappointment is too strong a word. He’s likely a utility player. I was hoping for more.
- Emerging Prospect: Luis De Leon
1. Ethan Salas (C)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 10 Catcher with upside
- Tools Summary: He might have a special blend of a feel to hit and power.
If you’re even a casual fan of Minor league baseball, you’ve followed the impressive season of 17-year-old Ethan Salas. Here’s a quick recap:
- He was signed on January 15 for $5 million.
- In Spring Training, he wowed scouts, fans, and the media with his advanced baseball skills, with many proclaiming him to be a future All-Star before playing a single game.
- The Padres decided to pass him over the DSL and the Complex Leagues and send him directly to Low-A, where he held his own, hitting .267 with nine home runs and five stolen bases
- The Padres had seen enough and promoted him to High-A, where he only hit .200 in nine games.
- With a .200 batting average in High-A for a 17-year, equating to a .300 hitter for most players (I made that up – my feeble attempt at a joke), the Padres promoted him to Double-A where he hit .179 and finished the season on the IL with a knee sprain (not expected to be serious).
I’ve only seen Salas play on TV, and the swing looks great. There’s plenty of bat speed to project future power, and he’s been complimented on his defense at every level. There’s even average speed. It’s everything you want to see in a star. But you have to ask yourself what the heck the Padres are doing? Why is he being promoted at such a breakneck pace? Sure, if he had hit .400 with a .600 SLG, okay. But he didn’t. I don’t get it, but I don’t get many things.
I’ve put his ceiling as a Top 10 catcher with upside. What are the chances of him hitting that? I haven’t a clue. The fact that he didn’t look completely overwhelmed in Double-A was impressive. Granted, he didn’t look good (.179 BA), but I guess that doesn’t matter in this new Math that the Padres are playing!
2. Jackson Merrill (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS/2B or Top 40 OF
- Tools Summary: He’s showing solid power and speed with an excellent feel to hit.
Jackson Merrill continued to hit everything thrown at him in 2023 across High and Double-A, posting an impressive 12% K-Rate. He didn’t walk much, but when you hit everything thrown near the plate, you don’t need to work a walk. I knew he had excellent plate coverage, but his power impressed me. He added more loft to his swing, particularly after his promotion to Double-A, and didn’t lose any contact. He’s never going to compete for a home run title, but he could pop 15 to 20 home runs with enough speed to steal 15+ bases early in his career.
He’s also a plus defender at short. However, the Padres have committed to Xander Bogaerts, and I’m unsure who is the future starting shortstop. It’s usually the guy making the money. Regardless, the ceiling is a full-time regular with enough speed and power to be considered a future impact fantasy player. He should be up in 2024, and I wouldn’t put it past the Padres to bring him North with the team. Where does he play? He did play a little in the outfield towards the end of the season. Hmmm…
3. Sam Zavala (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 OF with upside
- Tools Summary: He has plus bat speed and is expected to grow into a 20+ home run hitter. Early in his career, he could steal 15+ bases.
Sam Zavala quietly had a solid year as one of the youngest players in the California League (Low-A). He slashed .267/.420/.451 with 14 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He also received a late-season promotion to High-A, where he only hit .078 in 14 games.
He has elite bat speed that is starting to turn into over-the-fence power. As he fills out, projecting at least 20 future home run pop seems reasonable. He’s also currently a plus runner and, early in his career, could steal 15+ bases annually. He has become too passive at the plate, causing him to get into poor hitting counts. I think that resolves as he gains more experience. I’ve given him a ceiling of a Top 40 outfielder, but he could exceed that as he grows into more power.
4. Dylan Lesko (RHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with risk
- Tools Summary: He’s back from TJS, and while the control is still spotty, the stuff looks back to pre-surgery form.
Dylan Lesko, the Padres’ 2022 first-round draft pick, spent most of the 2023 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He finally got back on the field in mid-June, and while he didn’t always throw strikes, the stuff looked back to form. His fastball was sitting 93 to 96, touching 97 with a high spin rate. His change-up, his best secondary pitch, was as good as before the injury. It’s an exciting package with a ceiling of a number two starter.
5. Robby Snelling (LHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 SP
- Tools Summary: He has a plus curveball and enough velocity on his fastball to suggest a future mid-rotation starter, if not more.
Whenever you think nobody is left in the Padres system, you are reminded that they are outstanding at acquiring and developing players. Robby Snelling was a supplemental first-round pick in 2022 and was one of the most impressive pitchers in 2023.
He pitched to a 1.82 ERA over three levels (Low, High, and Double-A), with the only blemish coming in Double-A, where he walked 10 in 17.1 innings. He still pitched to a 1.56 ERA.
He’s not a hard thrower, with his fastball sitting 92 to 93 MPH, but he has a plus curveball that could be a real weapon and is athletic enough to project he will be able to repeat his delivery and throw consistent strikes. The Padres have cleaned up his delivery, and the results are promising. The ceiling is a Top 40 starter, but the way he is going, he could exceed that.
6. Jairo Iriarte (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 SP
- Tools Summary: It’s an exciting arm with electric stuff. He needs to continue to work on repeating his delivery so he can throw more strikes.
Jairo Iriarte lit it up during the first half of the season. He started in High-A and pitched to a 3.09 ERA, striking out 11.4 per nine but walking a few too many at 4.1 per nine. But it was electric stuff with a fastball that hit 97 MPH, a plus slider, and perhaps an even better change-up. The Padres rewarded him with a promotion in July to Double-A and then moved him to the bullpen to manage his workload.
It’s an exciting profile that will work as either a starter or reliever, but the Padres have stated publicly that they see him as a starter. The ceiling is a mid-rotation starter, maybe more.
7. Graham Pauley (2B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Tools Summary: He’s showing speed, power, and a feel to hit.
Graham Pauley was a 13th-round pick in 2022 and turned heads since his first professional game. He was among the few players in 2023 to go 20-20 in the minor leagues (actually 23-22). He makes solid contact and has enough bat speed to hit 10 to 15 home runs annually with similar stolen base potential.
Coming into the season, he was a borderline middle infielder. He’s now a borderline Top 15 2B, perhaps with some upside. Finally, since he’s blocked and in the upper levels of the minor leagues, history would suggest that the Padres will trade him. If that happens, it only enhances his value as it could open a playing time path for him.
I would not sleep on him, as there could be sneaky value here.
8. Dillon Head (OF, #25)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with risk
- Tools Summary: Athletic with double-plus speed with more doubles than home run power.
When the Padres drafted Dillon Head in the first round, Twitter and the MLB Network broadcast team were buzzing about it being an overdraft. One thing we know is that AJ Preller is good at acquiring young, athletic players. That’s what Head is. He’s a plus runner who should be able to steal plenty of bases, and if what I hear about his bat speed is true, he could hit plenty of doubles with a chance to grow into 8 to 10 home run pop. I’m pushing him up my FYPD rankings because of his athleticism and the team that selected him.
9. Jakob Marsee (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF with 4th OF Risk
- Tools Summary: Plus speed with an ability to control the strike zone. There is not high-end exit velo, so I doubt there will be more than 5 to 8 HR pop. There is some MLB 4th OF risk.
Jakob Marsee was the Padres sixth-round pick in 2022. He had a breakout season last year, slashing .274/.413/.428 walking more than he struck out (98 BB to 97 K’s) while stealing 46 bases and hitting 16 home runs across High and Double-A. It’s not big bat speed, so his current exit velos point more to a doubles hitter than a home run-hitter. However, he’s a plus runner with excellent basepath instincts, so stolen bases should be a big part of the profile. His ability to control the strike zone was most impressive. If that continues, he could develop into a dynamic leadoff hitter and could be a replacement for Trent Grisham as soon as the second half of 2024. However, his lack of power does give him some MLB 4th OF risk.
10. Homer Bush Jr. (OF, #128)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside if power develops.
- Tools Summary: Strong major league bloodlines. He’s a plus runner with a feel to hit. He needs to get stronger.
The Padres took a familiar name, Homer Bush Jr., in the fourth round last July. Like his father, he’s a slap-and-go hitter with plus speed. There’s not a lot of current power, but he’s 6-foot-3, and I think he’ll eventually develop some power. It’s going to come down to how much he hits. In college, he walked more than he struck out, and in the early going in professional baseball, he’s showing solid contact skills. Remember, the Padres draft exceptionally well. Keep an eye on this one.
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