88 Comments

2013 Top 100

Original Published Date: Dec. 27 2012

Below are our Top 100 prospect rankings.  We’ve also made it available to download.

1 Jurickson Profar Tex SS
2 Dylan Bundy Bal RHP
3 Oscar Taveras Stl OF
4 Wil Myers KC OF
5 Gerrit Cole Pit RHP
6 Taijuan Walker Sea RHP
7 Zack Wheeler NYM RHP
8 Jose Fernandez Mia RHP
9 Christian Yelich Mia OF
10 Shelby Miller Stl RHP
11 Xander Bogaerts Bos SS
12 Jameson Taillon Pit RHP
13 Travis d’Arnaud NYM C
14 Nick Castellanos Det 3B
15 Billy Hamilton Cin 2B
16 Miguel Sano Min 3B
17 Archie Bradley Ari RHP
18 Anthony Rendon Was 3B
19 Francisco Lindor Cle SS
20 Tyler Skaggs Ari LHP
21 Byron Buxton Min OF
22 Jackie Bradley Bos OF
23 Michael Zunino Sea C
24 Javier Baez Chc SS
25 Trevor Bauer Cle RHP
26 Gary Sanchez NYY C
27 Carlos Correa Hou SS
28 Mike Olt Tex 3B
29 Jon Singleton Hou 1B
30 Mason Williams NYY OF
31 Alen Hanson Pit SS
32 David Dahl Col OF
33 Carlos Martinez Stl OF
34 Gregory Polanco Pit OF
35 Rymer Liriano SD OF
36 Jake Marisnick Mia OF
37 Jake Odorizzi KC RHP
38 Julio Teheran Atl RHP
39 Albert Almora CHC OF
40 Danny Hultzen Sea LHP
41 Taylor Guerrieri TB RHP
42 Addison Russell Oak SS
43 James Paxton
Sea LHP
44 Aaron Sanchez Tor RHP
45 Jedd Gyorko SD 3B
46 Kaleb Cowart LAA 3B
47 Kevin Gausman Bal RHP
48 Trevor Story Col SS
49 Kyle Zimmer KC RHP
50 Max Fried SD LHP
51 Brian Goodwin Was OF
52 Jesse Biddle Phi LHP
53 Tyler Austin NYY OF
54 Adam Eaton Ari OF
55 Noah Syndergaard NYM RHP
56 Oswaldo Arcia Min OF
57 George Springer Hou OF
58 Jorge Soler CHC OF
59 Allen Webster Bos RHP
60 Kolten Wong Stl 2B
61 Matt Barnes Bos RHP
62 Daniel Straily Oak RHP
63 Jonathan Schoop Bal 3B
64 Clayton Blackburn SF RHP
65 Austin Hedges SD C
66 Robert Stephenson Cin RHP
67 Hak-Ju Lee TB SS
68 Slade Heathcott NYY OF
69 Bubba Starling KC OF
70 Yasiel Puig LAD OF
71 Trevor Rosenthal Stl RHP
72 Courtney Hawkins CHW OF
73 Kyle Crick SF RHP
74 Nolan Arenado Col 3B
75 D.J. Davis Tor OF
76 Alex Meyer Min RHP
77 Michael Wacha Stl RHP
78 Bruce Rondon Det RHP
79 Marcell Ozuna Mia OF
80 Jacob Realmuto Mia C
81 Matt Davidson Ari 3B
82 Garin Cecchini Bos 3B
83 Lucas Giolito Was RHP
84 J.R. Graham Atl RHP
85 Gary Brown SF OF
86 Lewis Brinson Tex OF
87 Andrew Heaney Mia LHP
88 Tony Cingrani Cin LHP
89 Manny Banuelos NYY LHP
90 Justin Nicolino Mia RHP
91 Ronny Rodriguez Cle SS
92 Robbie Erlin SD LHP
93 Daniel Corcino Cin RHP
94 Dorsyys Paulino Cle SS
95 Martin Perez Tex LHP
96 Wily Peralta Mil RHP
97 Aaron Hicks Min OF
98 A.J. Cole Oak LHP
99 Josh Bell Pit OF
100 Joc Pederson LAD OF

88 comments on “2013 Top 100

  1. Its Alex Meyer, not “Meyers”.

  2. This site is quickly becoming one of my favorites – thank you.
    I’m in a deep dynasty league and need a future 3B. Would you target Cecchini for long term? Does he have potential to move up these rankings? What kind of player do you expect him to become?

    • Thanks for the kind words. I’m investing in Cecchini and believe he could a first division or solid regular contributor. He’s blocked by Middlebrooks, but that will not be a problem for at least two years.

  3. I just came up on the site a few days ago and it feels like my Christmas present, with all the wealth of information and analysis you provide on prospects. Keep up the great work and Happy New Year!

  4. Why can I not click on Gary Brown…?

  5. Ah, I see..new to the site and plan on following so thanks! I own him in a dynasty and have not had a chance to read up on him lately…

  6. I’m sorry because you have probobaly answered this but what are your expectations for julio teheran for the future.
    Counting on him in a dynasty league.

    • I was very high on Teheran but have soured based on his pitching mechanics and lack of a breaking pitch as I outlined in the profile. I heard that he was working on his mechanics in the Winter League and his last three starts were encouraging with 17.2 IP and 2 hits with 15K/4BB. Fixed? Too soon to say but it is encouraging. His future…today…is murky. Unless he solves his lack of a breaking pitch and stops the back leg collapse, he’s a mid-rotation starter at best. I’m not sure what to tell you as candidly, your league probably knows the struggles he is having and his trade value has taken a huge hit, so you probably need to hold onto him.

  7. Great work on this site and your podcast. Just finished listening to the prospects 76 – 100 podcast for the second time. Very useful as I’m doing an NFBC 15 team by 50 round slow draft right now. Thanks for all the info. You know, the thing I find most amazing is how you find time to do all this. Presumably, you have another very successful full-time job. Perhaps you could write your next blog (book?) about effective and successful time management!

    • LOL…I do most of my writing late at night and on airplanes as I travel a lot. The secret is NO Sleep! Scouting games is pretty easy for me as I live in the Northeast and there is a concentration of minor league parks in easy driving distance.

  8. Rich, I am loving your work more and more each day I come to it. With my dream to be apart of a major league baseball team one day I have always been intrigued in dynasty baseball leagues. Thats why I have been the commissioner of one for 5 years now and cannot wait to do play by play for the Murray State University Baseball team through my internship with their athletic program. Any advice on getting into the scouting industry, television side in baseball (which was my major in college), or just apart of a major/minor league baseball team?

    One error I noticed though. Robbie Erlin is a lefty, not a righty.

    • Thanks for the note. Working for a major league team, particularly within it’s baseball operation is really hard. It’s a limited pool (30 teams) that has a history of hiring people who played the game. Over the last 10 years this has started to change as teams have looked to diversify with more business and quantitative analysis oriented people but candidly is dominated by former players. For anything you want to do, there’s no magic pill and you have to make things work. My philosophy has always been to get educated, develop relationship (something that people have forgotten how to do with the Internet), take chances particularly early in life, and work your butt off. I know it’s trite but that’s how I approach it. For my site, I just started going to games, talking with people, learning the craft and then WROTE and WROTE. If it’s good, people will find it. Good luck.

      • Thank you for your extremely kind advice! What you advised me is everything I have always believed in. This goes for the profession and in life. You must work hard and never be afraid to put yourself out there. No one will ever notice you unless you put yourself out there. This means a lot to me and will only motivate me even more to do one day work in the big leagues.

  9. Great list. Would love to get more in depth feedback about Goodwin and his ceiling and ability to reach it. How does he compare to someone like Jackie Bradley?

    • I detailed both in the detailed writeups. But to compare, I think Bradley’s baseball ceiling is higher due to his elite defensive ability. I actually think he’ll contribute nicely offensively as well but Goodwin fantasy ceiling is higher. Much more power and slightly more raw speed although Bradley is fast and is excellent on the base paths as well. Like them both and Bradley will be ranked higher due to his defensive chops and my perception of being more big league ready, but don’t sleep on Goodwin – the guy has a chance to be really good. Expect both to see big league action in 2014 with a potential peek in 2013.

  10. I think you have some guys in this portion that should be in the portions still to be written…… Like Gary brown, Martin Perez, Snydergaard, Tyler Austin, Adam Eaton. I’ll be interested to see who you have ranked above them….maybe I’ll learn about some new prospects. I’ve enjoyed reading your top 100 so far.

    • Hey Rowe, thanks for your email. As you know, I’m still a huge fan of Gary Brown and his writeup is now posted. Perez…I’m a little down on and like Austin and Eaton…a lot. With the depth of the 2011 draft, some guys in a normal year that might be ranked in the 30’s and 40’s are pushed down a little. The minors are stacked and there is absolutely no disrespect in being list in this quartile. RW

  11. Rich, really enjoying your work and of course the podcasts with Tim & Marcus. Great stuff. One day I’ll catch up again for another pulled pork sandwich and a few beers! Cheers, Boris

    • Anytime…hope all is well.

      • Hey Rich… Any chance Addison Russell is #1? I joke of course… I love this kid and I think the sky is the limit. I hope Nakajima is just keeping SS warm for him the next couple of years. Do you think 20 HR with 30 SB and a solid AVG is predicable in his prime? I hope he keeps slim and stays at SS while maintaining is speed. I love what you are doing with the site and the podcast… Keep up the stellar work!

      • Like him a lot and a Top 50 overall prospect for me. 20/30 guy makes him a first round fantasy player, so I’m going to say that’s a bit too high of a ceiling for now. Love the power potential given his swing mechanics but the 30 SB’s might be on the high side. Expect him to move fast for a high school draftee.

  12. Brand new to the site. Actually found it by searching for a fantasy baseball podcast that goes through the winter. So far I have LOVED everything I’ve heard and read. Don’t know how it has taken me so many years of fantasy baseball to find your stuff. Glad I did. Feel like the guy above who said it was like a Christmas present. Keep up the great work!

  13. Suspense for the 26-50 is killing me!

  14. Great stuff. So how confident are you that Jackie Bradley should be rated over David Dahl? Also, I know there are a slew of young SS vying for attention. Was Orlando Arcia ever a temptation for your final list?

    Thanks!

    • I like both but Dahl could be special. Bradley’s glove is special and I he’ll also provide some offensive punch and is starting to look like a low risk prospect to make it to the bigs. Dahl has great tools but is still a kid and won’t start full season ball until this spring. High risk but huge reward. Orlando Arcia broke his ankle and missed the entire season. When Rendon broke his ankle, he lost a lot of speed, so I’m not sure if that will happen here yet. A lot of promise but we need to see what he does in 2013 before ranking him as a prospect.

  15. The list keeps getting better the farther it goes along. Although I must say I was surprised by the Gary Sanchez ranking. I think you are right that he is not getting the respect he deserves on many other lists. He just turned 20 and had a fine season. Also, I heard that Trevor Rosenthal was working out with Chris Carpenter this offseason and was supposedly going to be learning to throw a cutter. He was told to come to spring training stretched out to be a starter. With that knowledge, do you think he has what it takes to earn a spot in the very crowded Cardinals rotation? I’m sure he would be able to earn a spot on a rotation like Cleveland, but the bar will be high because he will be competing against very capable pitchers.

    • I had not heard that about Rosenthal. Can only be good for him. Look, Rosenthal has great stuff and has always been a starter. Just because they used him in the pen and he thrived, doesn’t meant that’s where he stays. If I’m in a keeper league, I’m treating him like a starter. In a redraft league for 2013, I’m feeling less sure he’ll be a starter but believe there’s still a chance. Do you really believe in Lance Lynn?

  16. English’s not my first language so I’ll keep short, I just want to tell you, Great job Mr.Wilson, I see a nice evolution since last year, specially on the podcast, and it looks much more professional …

  17. Great work. Love the site. Had you known about Singletons ‘issues’ how much lower (if any) would he have been? Also, you need to adjust Odorizzi to Tampa.

    • Thanks Sean. Yes, I need to move a bunch of players after the trades that were made. Singleton…obviously disappointed and you have to be concerned now. Would I have dropped him? Good question…still has a lot of talent and upside, so I think no. I’m going to hope he gets the necessary help and puts this behind him. I’m still buying.

  18. Thanks for the great site and Podcast Rich. I was hoping that you might be able to help with with a fantasy dilemma that I have. Its a ten team keeper league where we get to keep 3 players as reserves. These guys are usually minor leaguers or young major league players. I currently have Bryce Harper, Brandon Belt, and Eric Hosmer on my list. Was thinking about dropping Belt to go after someone like Oscar Taveras, Xander Bogaerts, or Miguel Sano. Some of the guys on the top of the prospect chart are already taken (like Profar, Hamilton, and D’Arnaud). Basically, I am curious if you think the potential ceiling from some of the top prospects is better than holding onto Belt.

    Thanks

    • I love Brandon Belt but let’s face it, the power that I thought he’d develop hasn’t. Part of it is due to his swing mechanics. For some reason, he’s moved his hands really high on the load and it’s nearly impossible for him to drive the ball. Until he fixes that, you’re looking at 10-12 home runs a year, based more on just being 6-foot-5 with great bat speed. If you can pickup Oscar Taveras – DO IT. Do not hesitate as this kid is going to be a stud. Xander Bogaerts as well.

      • Thanks for the reply. Looking forward to your 1-25 list. Can’t wait to see to see where some of the top prospects land. Its got to be tough to rank between some of these players, especially when they have different skill sets. Thanks again.

  19. Love your top 10. Got a chance to see Yelich and Fernandez here in Greensboro the last couple of years. Yelich is the real deal. Fernandez looked great, but we see lots of pitchers in single A that look great. I hope he excells. Keep up the good work mate.

  20. Is your prospect list based on fantasy potential or real world potential? Where would you slot the following: Nick Franklin, Corey Seager, Blake Swihart and Dan Vogelbach?

    • Hey Chris, It’s really a combination. Over the next week or so, I’ll be doing a modified list for Fantasy purposes. I’m not a huge fan of Nick Franklin as I said in write-up. Love Corey Seager and would try to add him to be Fantasy team. He will probably make my Fantasy Top 100 in the 80-100 range. Swihart is a Top 150 prospect for me – a long way to go. Vogelbach is probably in the Top 125; tons and tons of raw power but I’m not sure where he’ll play. Honestly, his best position is probably DH. Will make my Top 100 and he’s on the guys that will be a better fantasy player than baseball player.

  21. just had 4 round minor league draft for existing 20 team keeper league. OF Albert Almora, SP Max Fried, SP Taijuan Walker, SS Alen Hanson. somehow i scored that group with picks 16,36,56 and 76?!?! how’d i do? my problem is 3B. i have Longo and Machado and no one to play short. do i try to move Longo for a top SS and draft pick? or do i trade Manny for a keepable ace and wait a while for Hanson? we get 9 keepers, so far mine are Hosmer, Pedroia, Machado, Longo, Trout, Jennings, Price, Darvish, Bundy. i am in no hurry to win this season.

    • Hey Jim, Nice four picks. Fried and Almora are a bit off but studs. Walker, probably 2014 and Hanson is 2015. In our review of SS a couple of weeks back on our podcast, we discussed the depth in SS and everyone of us suggested going light on SS/MI and heavy on OF and other positions. While there’s a drop-off, it’s not crazy. Not sure who is on the waiver wire but I’d be leery of trading Machado and Longo, particularly since I see Machado moving back to SS soon and in fact, if Hardy gets hurt this year, you could see him slide over. Send me a note at thefantasysportsguy@gmail.com if you want to discuss further. BTW, ALWAYS be in a hurry to win!!!! RW.

      • thanks for the quick reply. i figure i have my 9 mlb keeper slots locked up for a while. so i tried to draft very young, as we can keep our 4 minor leaguers till they play a season in the majors. could you see any of them as top 10 prospects in future seasons? btw, i would never wish injury on a non-Yankee, but hopefully Hardy misses enough time where Machado gets SS eligibility back fairly quickly.
        thanks again, Jim Lahey ~ Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor

      • Still believe Machado is the SS in Baltimore long-term. Given Hardy’s history of injuries, I wouldn’t rule out SS eligibility in a standard league this year (5 or 10 games)

  22. you just got pwned by John Sickles LOLLLLL

  23. Rich, you provide excellent analysis and insight. I’ve just recently discovered your website and listened to all 4 prospect podcasts. Bar none, I think your analysis is the best on the web at the moment. A great marriage of sabermetrics and true scouting. Well done!

    I’ve a quick question for you: Carlos Correa vs. Addison Russell. Both have the potential to be solid hitting SS at the major league level, but both are far off. From what I have read, I gather Correa will have better power and slightly better defense. Russell may have a better hit tool. Keep in mind, my fantasy league is a pursuit the pennant league, so defense matters!

    Will both stick at SS? If you could grab only one, which would it be and why?

    • Dave, thanks for your kind words.

      Correa vs. Russell. Really tough question. Yes, Correa was taken #1 overall but that was more of a smart cost play by the Astros than a clear #1 overall selection. He could have gone #7 and therefore be in the same ballpark as Russell. In fact, I have them in the same band at #27 and #42 and back-to-back as SS prospect. Bottom line, it’s close and the fact that both of them are really young, it could go either way at this juncture.

      In my opinion, Correa has the better overall athleticism but will that translate into production at the highest level? He played in a lot of HS showcases and excelled everywhere he played. Correa is a big kid, so your question on whether he stays at SS is a good one. I think he initially does but could as he matures move to 3B. However, he could have 3-4 years in the big leagues before that happens, so it really doesn’t matter. Russell should stay there and might move a little more quickly than Correa. Tough call…sorry, I’m not more definitive but it’s close.

  24. Really good work Rich. It must take a lot of time compiling all this information to come up with your list. I appreciate it.

    Every year, I put together a composite list of all the top prospect lists across the web, yours included, which you can find at mlbcpi.blogspot.com .

    Check it out and let me know what you think.

  25. Was there any consideration given to McCullers for the back end of the list?

    • While I like McCullers, he was more in the 125-150 range. A lot of upside and a guy that could be a pop-up player this year. I do worry about his arm action but the stuff is legit.

  26. Hi Rich, what are the underlying factors that kept Zach Lee from cracking your top 100?

    • I like Zach Lee and he’ll definitely be a major leaguer but I’m down on his stuff and that dropped him out of the Top 100. It’s a shame as you know I grade premium athletes high but the aresnal is down for me. Top 125 prospect.

  27. How much did J.O. Berrios miss this list by. He seems to have a good amount of heat coming into this season. I know he’s small, but everything looks good. What level do you think he finishes at? What is his ceiling?

  28. Rich,
    BBHQ might want to think about paying you for your work. Just went through their Minor League Top 100 list. Only five of your top 50 was outside of their top 50. There were three at 51, 52 and 53 as well, but they were so close to your rankings that I don’t think they should count.

    Bottom line: I know many of the top prospects are well known and agreed upon throughout the community. However, a variance of only 5 players in the top 50 and the extremely tight correlation in the top 20 leads me to believe the “experts” regularly refer to your excellent work… FWIW….

  29. How do u print your prospect lists, or get it in print?

  30. Rich

    Great site. I appreciate the information.

    No Zach Cox?

    Also, I’m in a dynasty league with a minors squad of 10 players. I like shooting for the stars since the depth is so deep. That said, here is the top guys available (according to you) in my minors draft that starts tonight. Would you draft them in the same order written? (Not looking for ridiculous analysis as I’m sure you have enough on your plate-any advice would help. Thanks!)

    Gregory Polanco, Taylor Guerrieri, Addison Russell, Aaron Sanchez, Trevor Story, Max Fried, Jess Biddle, Brian Goodwin, Syndergaard, Clayton Blackburn, Slade Heathcott

    • Sorry, just read your write up on Cox. Thanks!

    • Polanco 1st for sure, then either Russell or Guerrieri next. It was hard to push Russell any higher than where he is considering his number of professional at-bats, but he could shoot up my list and others very quickly. Consider him before Guerrieri. Goodwin would be next. Really like what I saw in the AFL; don’t know where he’ll play but Span can’t be the long-term answer for the Nats. Story next followed by Biddle or Heathcott. Syndergaard, Blackburn/Sanchez (toss up there). I posted my Fantasy Top 100 yesterday and would follow that in a minor league draft. That said, I tend to favor batters over hitters for my Dynasty and Keeper leagues, so unless I’m weak in pitching, consider Story and Goodwin before all pitchers. http://prospect361.com/prospects/2013-fantasy-top-100/ Hope that helps.

  31. This is great. Thanks a lot. I was able to copy/paste into excel easy enough, so I’m good.

    One thing: we are able to draft college players as well. Would you put any college players in the fantasy top 100, outside of Mark Appel?

    • Candidly, I haven’t started thinking about June’s draft, so I don’t have a read on it. Surely, 8-10 draftees will land in the Top 100 of next year. Appel, Manaea and Stanek would seem to lead the college pack at the moment but that could change.

  32. Hi Rich,

    If you were to chose between Almora or Dahl. Who do you think will become the better fantasy player and have the least risk of being a bust?

  33. Hey Rich-
    Just wanted to say just found your site and podcast and love it!

  34. What are your thoughts on A’s pitcher Dan Strailey?

  35. Rich, still early, but now that we’re a few weeks into the MiLB season, any updated thoughts on some top prospects:
    * Slow starts by SS Baez and Bogaerts – any concerns?
    * G. Cole’s fastball command – will it improve enough to get him to his ceiling?
    * Hicks and Arcia debut?
    * Allen Webster’s development?
    * Did you rank Puig too low?
    * Prospects you’ve seen most development from since pre-season ranking?

    Just curious to get your thoughts

    • No concerns on Baez and Bogaerts.
      Cole fastball command will be fine but he needs to work on a two-seamer to get some movement.
      Hicks is overmatched and is not ready. I think Arcia will perform better, but might not be given much of chance.
      I’m a huge Webster fan…always have been and will be the next guy up, but needs an injury or under performance to see the majors.
      Yes on Puig. See my recent write-up.
      Not ready to make that call yet.

  36. Joc Pederson – thoughts? Have both Pederson and Goodwin but Pederson is looking like the better prospect while tearing up AA and is almost 2 years younger. Who reaches MLB first?

    • Goodwin is still the better prospect but Pederson is just a “gritty” type of player with great make-up. Nothing negative about Goodwin there, but Pederson’s motor is running hard. Who gets to the Majors first…both may need a trade to make that happen, but particularly Pederson as he’s not only blocked by big contracts in the outfield, but Puig as well.

  37. I am new here but extremely impressed! Your thoughts on C Seager vs Cecchini? Also who ranks highest of these SPs who have my attention- A Calome, E Johnson, E. Rodriquez, H Owens, J Hahn? S Trahan is available as well but I am thinking he is too far away and might not stick as a C. . Thank you!

    • Thanks. I’m glad you found it. I like both Seager and Cecchini, but my vote is Cecchini. His bat could be special.

      Of those pitchers, I go Owens first, Erik Johnson next, Eduardo Rodriguez (I’m assuming you mean the O’s LHP), Alex Colome, and the Jesse Hahn. However, Hahn has been ridiculous this year and is a guy I’m digging into

      I like Trahan a lot but the question is whether he stays behind the plate. The kid is really athletic and he just might, but as you say, he’s 3-4 years away and in a Dynasty League – that’s a lifetime.

  38. I appreciate that fast reply and info. It is hard for me to decide on what SP of them but my thoughts were close to yours. Colome is a real wild card for me… Thank you and I will keep checking on you but sorry i will not share you to the rest of my league lol.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 106 other followers

%d bloggers like this: