The Jays system has two of the better prospects in the game at the top. Then things get murky.
Ricky Tiedemann has a chance to pitch at the top of the rotation and could see the Blue Jays as soon as next season. Orelvis Martinez also looks about ready, and while there is huge power potential, it could come with contact problems.
Arjun Nimmala had some of the best bat speed and power potential of any teenager drafted last July. The question is around how much he will hit. Our biggest mover was Alan Roden, and while he doesn’t have star potential, there could be something there for fantasy managers.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Ricky Tiedemann
- Biggest Mover: Alan Roden
- Biggest Disappointment: Gabriel Martinez
- Emerging Prospect: Landen Maroudis
1. Ricky Tiedemann (LHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP
- Tools Summary: Spent a chunk of the season on the IL with bicep tendonitis. When healthy, it is a power arsenal with a fastball-sweeper-heavy arsenal.
Ricky Tiedemann was the Jays’ third-round pick in 2021 and missed a good chunk of the 2023 season with bicep inflammation. He was back pitching at the end of July, so hopefully, he’ll have clear sailing.
When healthy, he has a fastball that sits 94 to 96 MPH with a lot of carry from his huge spin rate (2350). His best secondary pitch is a slider with significant horizontal run. In fact, baseballsavant has characterized it as a sweeper. Both pitches get significant whiffs, and while his change-up is firm, the sweeper has so much run that it’s effective against right and left-handed hitters. Therefore, even if his change-up doesn’t develop, I think he stays a starter.
He’s one of the better pitching prospects in the game with a chance to be a number two starter.
2. Orelvis Martinez (3B/2B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B/2B
- Tools Summary: There continues to be significant power potential, but with continued concern about how much contact he will make.
I downshifted on Orelvis Martinez last season as the approach and strikeouts concerned me about what type of player he could become. However, in 2023, he cut down his strikeout rate meaningfully (20.5% K-Rate in Double), but after his promotion to Triple-A, it reverted back to his historical average (27.2%). It’s a big swing, and he will expand the strike zone, but there’s no denying he can mash 30 home runs annually. I will keep his ceiling as a Top 15 3B/2B. He played more second base towards the end of the season, and if that plays out, it could be even more appealing for fantasy managers.
3. Arjun Nimmala (SS, #20)
- Highest Level: Complex ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS
- Tools Summary: Plus future power who should be able to stick at short. There is some length and chase in his swing.
There could be familiarity bias with me with Nimmala, but I saw him in a couple of Perfect Game tournaments, and he was impressive. He needs to get stronger, but the bat speed is elite, and he’s a no-doubt shortstop. Unfortunately, there is not a ton of future speed. However, the bat speed suggests big boy power, and I like the swing. He’s a project and will likely take four to five years to work through the system, but he could develop into a 25+ home run shortstop. He’s an excellent pick for someone with the first pick in a draft who takes Crews or Langford with the first pick, and the FYPD is following how the Major League teams drafted.
4. Brandon Barriera (LHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with risk
- Tools Summary: Promising arm with high spin and a plus change-up.
Brandon Barriera was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2022. He had only pitched 13 innings in May when he was shut down with an elbow issue. He returned at the season’s end and pitched well in Low-A.
Statcast likes the stuff. His fastball sits 92 to 93 with high spin (2400). The slider also has high spin and excellent horizontal movement. Finally, the change-up looks like his best pitch, with nice tumble and a spin of 1550 RPM. As he fills out, he’ll likely add more velocity. It’s an athletic delivery, so there is hope that he’ll be able to repeat his delivery and throw strikes. It looks like the stuff of a top-of-the-rotation starter.
5. Alan Roden (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Tools Summary: He’s an intriguing prospect who controls the strike zone extremely well. With some tweaks to his swing, he could unlock more power with a chance to be a 15-15 type player.
Alan Roden, the Blue Jays third-round pick in 2022, had a terrific 2023 season across Low and High-A. He walked more than he struck out, resulting in a .317 batting average and a .431 OBP. You can argue that at 23, he was one of the older players in the league, but the swing looks great, and his zone contact is exceptionally high. He needs to add loft to his swing to unlock power, and if he does, there is enough speed for him to be a 15-15 type performer.
He’s way under the radar in fantasy baseball, and while I don’t see a star, he could be a nice number-four outfielder.
6. Manuel Beltre (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 20 SS or Top 15 2B with upside
- Tools Summary: Still very young but with the building blocks of a full-time regular. I’m investing.
Manuel Beltre was the Blue Jays’ big international acquisition in 2021, signing for $2.35 million. While the slash line of .236/.352/.346 was underwhelming, he showed a mature approach, striking out less than 20% of the time. He’s still a plus runner, but as he fills out, the speed will reduce. I still see double-digit stolen bases in the 10 to 12 range. He has solid exit velocities but needs to get stronger, and once he does, the over-the-fence power should follow. The ceiling is a full-time regular at short or second with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 to 12 stolen bases who should hit with high OBP.
7. Enmanuel Bonilla (OF)
- Highest Level: DSL ETA: 2027+ Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with extreme risk
- Tools Summary: One of the most tooled-up players in the 2023 International class.
Enmanuel Bonilla is one of the most tooled-up players in the 2023 International class, and his $4.1 million signing bonus reflects that. He has plus bat speed and is a plus runner with instincts in the field.
In the DSL, he slashed .307/.407/.429 with a few too many strikeouts (24.3% K-Rate). He should begin the 2024 season in the Complex League, but the Blue Jays have been aggressive with their players, so I would not be surprised if he spends time in Dunedin (Low-A).
8. Dasan Brown (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF, maybe more, if he can hit enough
- Tools Summary: He has 80-grade speed with plenty of bat speed to project future power. Can he hit enough to allow the tools to play? That’s the open question.
Dasan Brown was the Blue Jays’ third-round pick in 2019. He reminds me of the Los Angeles Angels prospect Jordyn Adams. He’s an exceptional athlete with 80-grade speed and high exit velocities. He has added more loft to his swing this year to try and tap into more power. Consequently, his BABIP is lower than it has been in previous years as he’s not putting the ball on the ground and “jailbreaking” to first. I think the upside is higher than Adams as he doesn’t strike out as much, but the risk is still high that he hits enough to be an impact player. If he does, watch out.
9. Addison Barger (3B/2B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Tools Summary: Plus power potential but with some significant platoon splits.
Addison Barger spent six weeks on the IL with an elbow issue that was determined “not to be structural in nature” (think TJS) but still might need some surgical attention in the off-season. When healthy, he has some of the best exit velocities in the Blue Jays system and should be able to provide power at the highest level. However, some platoon splits show a significant drop off in power against left-handed pitching, so it could come as a utility player who gets 400 ABs playing all over the field. He’s a borderline guy for me, particularly on the Blue Jays.
10. Kendry Rojas (LHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP or a reliever
- Tools Summary: He’s a pitch data guy with an average fastball but significant spin.
Kendrys Rojas was signed in the fall of 2020 for $215,000. He has a three-pitch mix with sneaky good stuff. While he’s not a hard thrower (fastball is 91 to 92 MPH), it has a high spin rate of 2400+, resulting in a high whiff rate. He also gets a ton of whiffs on his slider and change-up, with his change-up looking like his best overall pitch. His delivery has some effort, but it’s clean, and he’s athletic enough that I think he’ll be able to repeat it. He’s an interesting player that I will monitor closely going forward.
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