The Cubs are on the rise. Not only did their Major League team take a step up in 2023, but so did their minor league system. We even saw Pete Crow-Armstrong make his big league debut in mid-September. I love their number one pick last July in Matt Shaw and believe he will be a fast riser, and if Alcantara can make enough contact, he could be the best of the lot.
It’s a strong system, and with the financial resources of the Major League club, it appears that the Cubs are poised for an extended run.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Biggest Mover: Owen Caissie
- Biggest Disappointment: Brennen Davis
- Emerging Prospect: Derniche Valdez
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 OF
- Tools Summary: He has a well-rounded game with plus speed, solid power potential, and a feel to hit.
In 2023, Pete Crow-Armstrong reversed the aggressive approach that he showed in High-A in 2022. In doing so, he also reduced his strikeout rate. I’m glad to see this trend as I love the overall game of PCA and believe he’ll be a sneaky fantasy player with 20+ stolen bases annually with a chance for 15 or so home runs. I thought he would hit, and if he can control the strike zone like he did this season, I think he will. The ceiling is a Top 40 outfielder with some upside, as I think he could add power down the road.
2. Kevin Alcantara (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 OF with risk
- Tools Summary: He’s tooled-up, but at 6-foot-6, there will likely be some swing-and-miss in his game. Regardless, there is a setup for an impact player at the highest level.
Kevin Alcantara is one of the highest-upside prospects in the minor leagues. There is serious power potential, and at least early in his career, he will steal plenty of bases. There will always be concern about how much he’ll strike out because he’s 6-foot-6, with long levers, and those types of players usually strike out a lot. What I wasn’t worried about was his approach. He always worked counts well, but he became overly aggressive in High-A – exactly like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Is this something that the Cubs are teaching at this level? PCA has been better in 2023. It’s a data point that we need to monitor. Overall, the tools point to an impact player at the highest level with 20-20 potential, with more power expected as he fills out.
3. Matt Shaw (SS, #13)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 10 2B/3B
- Tools Summary: Plus power with a feel to hit and speed early in his career.
I was surprised when Matt Shaw dropped to pick 13 in the 2023 Draft. He’s a natural hitter with considerable power despite his 5-foot-11 frame. Across his sophomore and junior season at Maryland, he hit 48 home runs and stole 30 bases in 122 games. He also walked nearly as much as he struck out (14% K-Rate). The profile reminds me a lot of Alex Bregman, and while I don’t think he’ll pop 40 home runs, I think he’ll have serious power.
In his professional debut, he looked great, showing power, speed, and a feel to hit. He was aggressive at the plate, but the sample size was very small. He’s moved up to #6 on my pref-list for Supplemental Drafts behind the Big 5.
4. Owen Caissie (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with contact risk
- Tools Summary: There is 70-grade raw, but it comes with significant strikeout risk.
The Cubs were aggressive with Owen Caissie to begin the 2023 season by assigning the 20-year-old to Double-A. While he popped 21 home runs, he also struck out 32% of the time. There is 70-grade raw power, but it’s heavy pull power, so there are concerns about how well he will handle good left-handed pitching. To date, the SLG has been similar from both sides. The ceiling, for me, is a power-hitting corner outfielder with a ton of pressure on the batting average. Early in his career, there could be high single-digit stolen bases.
5. Cade Horton (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP or Closer
- Tools Summary: He has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider but currently lacks a third pitch.
In the 2022 draft, the Cubs aggressively selected Cade Horton in the first round (pick #7). He had Tommy John Surgery in 2021 and seems to be fully healthy, although the Cubs had him start the 2023 season in Low-A, where he overwhelmed young hitters with his 94 to 96 MPH (T98) and a plus slider. It’s not a true slider, as it’s got plenty of downward drift, but hitters do not pick up the pitch well. He doesn’t throw his change-up very often, and when he does, it still needs plenty of work. While he’ll fight with his mechanics, he generally throws strikes. Assuming his change-up improves, the upside is a number three starter. If he doesn’t, he could have a long career as a high-leveraged reliever or closer.
6. Alexander Canario (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF
- Tools Summary: He missed a good chunk of the season but surged late in the season to remind us that there could be serious pop in his bat.
Alexander Canario suffered a serious ankle injury in the Dominican Winter League and spent the first half of the season on the IL. It took him a while to heat up when he returned, but when he did, he started to look like the player we saw in 2022. He did get one game in the big leagues where he struck out in his only plate appearance.
I think there is 20 home run pop in the bat, and assuming he starts running again, the ability to steal double-digit stolen bases annually. He does strike out too much, so expect pressure on his batting average.
7. Jordan Wicks (LHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP
- Tools Summary: He’s a strike-thrower with a plus change-up with an average fastball.
Jordan Wicks was the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2021, who made his MLB debut in August. He’s not a hard thrower, with his fastball averaging 92.5 MPH, but it gets a lift because of the above-average spin rate he gets (2250 RPM). His money pitch is his change-up, and the pitch works well against right and left-handed batters. He’s always thrown strikes, and while he’ll never pitch at the top of the rotation, he could be a solid #4/#5 pitcher for years. He’ll keep his team in the game and, depending on the offense, should routinely win double-digit games annually.
8. Ben Brown (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP with upside
- Tools Summary: He’s starting to grow into his body with a chance to be a number four starter.
Ben Brown started the 2023 season strong but hit the IL with an oblique strain at the end of July before finishing the season in the bullpen.
In looking at his statcast data, there are some red flags. While he throws hard, the spin rates are poor across the board. Yet, he is avoiding hard contact. He’s a two-pitch pitcher, with 90% of his pitches being his fastball and slider. Having a pitch to get glove-side batters out is critical at the big-league level, and that does worry me that a bullpen role could be in the cards. Plus, control was a problem as he walked six per nine.
I’ve put his ceiling as a number four starter with upside, but I would not be surprised if he moves to the bullpen. Given his proximity to the Majors, he should be owned in all Dynasty Leagues.
9. James Triantos (3B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B or 2B
- Tools Summary: He has solid all-around tool with a ceiling of a full-time regular.
James Triantos 2023 season started late as he was recovering from knee surgery to repair a meniscus tear. He hit the ground running, showing solid all-around tools, although the in-game power has yet to materialize. There’s enough bat speed and raw power to project 15 to 20 future home run power. He’s an average runner but is aggressive on the basepaths and has always been able to steal bases. If you add it up, he profiles as a high-floor, full-time regular who should hit with power upside.
10. Matt Mervis (1B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Corner Infielder
- Tools Summary: The data suggest he’ll have platoon splits. However, there’s enough power and contact that he could have value in deeper Dynasty Leagues.
Remember when the fantasy world was all-in on Matt Mervis entering the 2023 season? How did that work out? He’ll get more chances and might eventually fill a role as a platoon bat (on the good side). Why?
He’s a dead pull hitter, and the data suggests that he can be pitched to when you stay on the outside part of the plate. Left-handed pitchers usually pitch away from left-handed batters, and weak contact or contact problems usually follow when you are a pull hitter. To be fair, many left-handed batters struggle for the same reason. That said, he could have a career similar to Joc Pederson.
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