|Original Published Date: Jan. 22 2016|
Below are our Top 100 prospect rankings for 2016.
|29.||Jose De Leon||LAD||RHP|
Hi Rich. I can’t believe it took me this long to find your site! Great analysis, great read, and love that it is fantasy focused! Our dynasty league has 10 available minor league roster spots. Position players with less than 500 MLB ABs are eligible, as well as pitchers with less than 30 appearances. Last year was a dynasty rebuild for me, and I stock-piled 17 eligible minor league roster players. I was wondering if you could provide me with your opinion on which 10 of this list you would keep on your team:
Thanks for your help!
Alex Reyes, David Dahl, Cody Bellinger, Clint Frazier, Kyle Tucker, Tim Anderson, Kolby Allard, Greg Bird, Hunter Renfroe, and Kepler but if you wanted to stay young, I would go Riley Pint.
Great list. Wish I would have seen it before my dynasty draft.
I ended up with:
5. Alex Reyes Stl RHP
14. Orlando Arcia Mil SS
23. David Dahl Col OF
31. Jorge Mateo NYY SS
39. Robert Stephenson Cin RHP
47. Ozzie Albies Atl SS
56. Gleybar Torres CHC SS (I believe it is spelled Gleyber)
72. Harold Ramirez Pit OF
93. Kevin Newman Pit SS
What 2 of these guys would make sense for me to offer for Brendan Rodgers?
Also, it’s awesome to see you rating Newman in the top 100. He doesn’t seem to get much love.
I was a little over bullish on Stephenson, so he would be one. I would try Ozzie Albies with Stephenson to see if I can get a bite. Stress both of them are at the doorstep. I’d rather have Rodgers I believe.
Awesome. Thanks Rich!
I am deciding which 5 prospects to keep, I know JP Crawford, AJ Reed, A Meadows, but what about A Bregman, Nick Williams, M Kepler, B Phillips, pretty much everyone below the top 50 of baseball america’s top 100, please help thank you.
Crawford, Reed, Bregman, Phillips, and Meadows for me. If you wanted to trade Williams in for Meadows, I’d be ok with that.
Thanks Rich, I own Crawford, Reed, Meadows, Bregman and Williams, and taking up a roster spot on my team is Hunter Harvey, (only 5 free spots for prospects) idk what to make of harvey since he’s often injured, but he is typically high on peoples list, B.Phillips is still out there and now so is Bradley Zimmer… not sure what the correct move on harvey is or if i own the right OF prospects.. could you please tell me who pr what youd do with these choices and thank you again for you advice!
Thank you so much for the rankings Rich. I’ve been finding myself using them quite a bit when analyzing players for this year’s draft. I play in a 26-category, 20-team, 25-player roster dynasty league with 5 additional Minor slots. We keep 20 players. In terms of shortstops, just how close are JP Crawford and Brendan Rodgers? Would it be a travesty to pick Rodgers over Crawford if I have the choice?
Crawford is nearly ready now and while I love Rodgers, he has three years to go. Given all that, I would much rather have Crawford in a Dynasty League at this point.
Thank you for your advice! I was able to take AJ Reed with the #2 pick and JP Crawford with the #3 pick. This should round out my hitting for the foreseeable future. I followed you, looking forward to more of your articles throughout the season!
Hey, Rick… Thanks for answering our dynasty trade questions!
Trying to win this win and still have a good farm system…
Would you trade Blake Snell for Kenta Maeda and a 1st Rd pick (minors draft)?
Or is Snell just too far ahead of Maeda.
Thanks again for all your insight.
I’m not sure of the value of a first round pick, but in my leagues, where first rounds have very good value, yes I would do that deal.
Thank you, Rich. I guess a better way to ask the question would have been, is Snell a much better option than Maeda? Or are they close. I can’t find much info on Maeda.
1st round picks do seem to carry some good value in our leagues also.
I truly enjoy your work and really appreciate and quick answers!!
I’d much rather have Snell but if I could get a top talent in last June’s draft as a delta, I would do that.
Maeda is a smallish pitcher with good control but just average stuff. He’s playing in the right park and right division and should have some success. He’s not Tanaka or Darvish but more of a #3 ceiling who will be 28 in April. Snell’s upside is higher, not crazy higher, but his age and higher upside leads me to him.
So I know I’ve been beyond annoying with my fantasy questions lol but I just have one more and then I’m done, I promise. My team is in major rebuild mode and am I probably still 3-4 years from being a contender in this league (And that’s being generous). I have #1 waiver priority and was wondering who you think I should use it on, Henry Owens or Javier Baez?… there is a chance I can land both, but if I can only one get one, who do you think is the better option?
Baez out the two and it’s not close.
Appreciate the help on my last pick! (Ended up going with Blair). Also ended up trading Wei-Yen Chen & Eovaldi for Berrios to add to my prospect roster.
So with that said, I also have last pick in the rookie draft and I was wondering if you could help me out on who I should pick. I think I am pretty set at pitching prospects with the additions of Blair & Berrios to go along with Stephenson, Manaea, Bundy. BUT if Michael Fulmer is still there, should I grab him? or take one of these three – Albies, Guerra, Happ?
Fulmer, Happ or Tapia?… Didn’t realize Raimel was still available until now.
Picking 3rd round in my Dynasty Rookie draft and I’m stuck choosing between Michael Fulmer, Aaron Blair and Ian Happ. Who do YOU think I should grab?…. The rest of my farm system is (Yoan Moncada, Robert Stephenson, Andrew Benintendi, Brett Phillips, Raul Mondesi, Sean Manaea, Dylan Bundy, Max Kepler)
OR Ozzie Albies?
It comes down to Fulmer vs. Blair for me. Both should see time in the majors this year. I like Blair a little better; plus he’s in the National League. I would go there, but if you love, love Fulmer, I wouldn’t stop you. In other words, very close.
I would follow my Top 100 list. They are all in there.
I would prefer Norris but only slightly. Yeah, you get two years more of team control with Snell, but is it enough to sway the decision? I just don’t know. To me, it’s a challenge trade and I hate them as do major league organizations. You’re either right or wrong and they are both very good pitchers. Sorry…that’s all I’ve got.
Haha… I appreciate it, sir. Thanks for the time. Being I am a huge Tiger fan, I think I will make the (unwise) decision with the heart and take Norris.
Thank you very much.
Thanks for all of your hard work Rich… I love that you are one of the first to market every year, and are not influenced by others’ rankings.
Would it be possible to place the write ups under each player on this same page? It would save a lot of clicking back and forth, if somebody wanted to read through the list from 1-100. You could also bucket them by 25, if it is too much to put on one page.
I’ve debated including all the write-ups in-line but my editors claims we get improved site awareness if we make people click around, so I’ll blame him 🙂 I hear you though.
Would you take Gleybar Torres over Jorge Mateo in an OBP/SLG league or would you still put Mateo higher?
Also, related point it might be an interesting discussion point on the Podcast which players would go up/down in an OBP league vs. Avg. league. I know some of the writeups touch upon this (e.g., Derek Fischer) but it could make for a good discussion. Just a thought.
I would still go with Mateo. It’ll be interesting to see if the Yankees keep him or trade him.
Good suggestion. We get focused on BA out of habit and should also discuss OBP more as that cat is becoming more popular.
How is Peraza’s future in Cincy compare with Ozzy Albies… I have to pick one of the two (or hold Vlad Guerrero Jr) in a dynasty league… I feel the players are similar and Peraza is so much closer to making an impact. Other guys I am keeping one of them over are Taylor Ward, Roman Quinn, Billy McKinney…. thoughts Rich? thanks!
I would keep both over Vlad Jr. Peraza is nearly ready and a better bet short-term. Albies has more upside.
Well, the league has quite a dumper’s mentality… do you see Albies hitting top 20 on most prospects lists this year? If so, by June a dumping team would give me a nice player or two for him.. For example, I gave up two $10 players to get Devers last summer.
Hi Rich. I posted earlier, but I’m not seeing. Apologies if this ends up being a double.
I was wondering where some of the guys I’m rostering/pondering rate outside your top 100: Tellez, Travis, Gillaspie, Bellinger, Verdugo, and Taylor(Mil). I’m really old at 1B at the major league level. Also, are these guys worth holding onto in a league that rosters 225 prospects. Thanks for all your work. Avid listener/reader
I know I wrote something but it didn’t post. I was answering stuff on a plane so maybe that’s it.
Anyway…All of them would be in the next 100 with the most interesting being Bellinger. I think I comp’d the swing to Christian Yelich. Tellez is also very interesting. He just missed the list but I just couldn’t get him in. He can really hit.
Indeed, you comp’d his swing to Yelich on the pod. I added him after reading your initial write-up and the reaffirmation on the pod was gravy.
I dropped Gillaspie for Travis a while back. And then a few weeks ago Travis for Tellez. Would you approve of that in a OPS format? The former 2 are still available
I think you are making the right moves there.
Rich – love the site and the amount of information and analysis you manage to pack in. really awesome job. Question for you about Kyle Zimmer. In the team review you only gave him 4-stars, but in the top-100 list you jumped him ahead of Berrios, Snell, and Bundy all of whom were 5-stars. Berrios and Snell seem like pretty safe bets and I had them pegged ahead of Zimmer for an upcoming draft. Why do you like Zimmer better?
My star system is by no means scientific . I’m still a believer in Zimmer and could have been just the last time I saw him. He was amazing in the Fall League. The ball jumped out of his hand and it was special. It was a similiar excitement that Alex Reyes generated this year. No, he’s not Reyes, but it was special. If he can stay healthy, the team and the venue bode very well for his fantasy upside.
On the question of risk adjusted. There’s no specific formula but I have many biases as I put the list together.
First, bats over arms. Second, I give extra points to players that are closer to the majors and even more if they have an open opportunity. It’s why Reed is so high.
Next is the core strength of the player. The ability to hit for hitters and the ability or potential to throw strikes for pitchers. I might over value hit tools more than secondary tools such as the power and speed but give me a guy who can hit and you have a big leaguer.
Tools are next. If I think the player can hit and is toolsy, he goes straight to the top. Buxton and Brinson are examples and Reyes is an example on the pitching side.
Small pitchers take hits and while I like Anderson Espinosa, he’s a 17-year-old kid how is 6-0 tall. Yes, I got a comp of Pedro but I need to see it to put him high on a Top 100 list.
Finally, there is ballpark factors. If I’m sure a kid will stay in a system like Rodgers, he gets extra points. Renfroe gets hurt as does pitchers in Colorado. I love Jon Gray, but he’s a three in Colorado.
Nothing is perfect as Story should have been on this list given my logic, but I’ve seen him too many times and I just don’t feel it. I know that might sound stupid, but I worry about his ability to hit and I’ve just not been impressed in the 30 or so ABs in which I’ve scouted him.
It’s not a perfect system but that’s what I consider. It’s not a list based soley on tools as many have commented on. Why isn’t Robles and Espinosa in you top 30 prospects???? Candidly, if you have an entire minor league roster of teenagers with huge upside, I don’t believe you’ll ever win a Dynasty League. It’s for this reason that Latin players get dinged in my process…I discount the DSL as there are tons of issues like playing surfaces that make it nearly impossible to give the stats any credibility. Plus, they are lifetime away from contributing. With the life expectancy of Dynasty Leagues always in question, do you really want to wait 6-7 years for a 16-year-old to pan out. Sure, 20 minor league players, give me two teenagers. The rest will be full season guys with half of them in Double-A and higher.
Hope that helps.
I really like the list and all the write-ups. Is this list adjusted for risk? Just at first glance, having Brendon Rodgers, who has only short season experience ahead of guys like Giolito and Glasnow who are major league ready, top of the rotation starters seems like an awfully bold call.
Indeed a bold call. A ton of talent and well thought of in the industry.
Where do you have the Reds SP Cody Reed? He was obtained from KC in the Johnny Cueto trade and Reds manager Bryan Price has said he expects Reed to be a part of the Reds rotation sometime in 2016. He is a stud.
Just missed. I like him and believe he was one of the better arms gotten in the deal. PLease refer to write-up.
16 team dynasty league, looking to repeat as champ. weak at C (wilson ramos) and scared one of melancon, pap, perkins may fall off this year. been offered schwarber, hector rondon for sano (beltre is 3B) and alex reyes. what do you think? my other front line pitchers are price, fernandez, deGrom, Gray, liriano, salazar
I understand the fear but that’s three really good relievers and not all will fall off. I would hold tight.
The Joey Gallo hate has gone too far. Not in the top 100? Ludicrous! Of the 4 publications that I consider (who’ve publshed) in addition to this one, all have him top 10. I’m fine if he’s not in top 50 even, but not on this list at all? Too far and irrational. Love the list, but that’s more of an “hey look at me” omission rather than a decision made in reality.
It’s what I think Thomas and I made that clear in my write-up. Am I wrong? Perhaps, but I didn’t do it to be a “look at me” site. Instead, I’m trying to say to Dynasty League owners…it’s time to sell. It’s my opinion. I’m fine with you disagreeing and if I’m proven wrong, I will freely admit it.
Fair enough, Rich, but I think the same statement could be made by dropping him significantly but not off the list. I’m not necessarily a huge fan either, but it’s pretty radical to drop someone from easily a top-15 in 2015 to 101+ in 2016 with no major injury. The swing-and-miss has always been there. It’s not new. I respect your opinion, in fact, I value it. I think you are spot on in many evaluations. This just feels too dramatic, that’s all.
That’s fair. I just wanted people to know how I felt. I’m very worried and if I can get a person to trade him and a piece for Buxton; or straight up for Brinson…well, I’ve done my job. Maybe I beat it over the head, but that was my intent. The five players people seem to have the most negativity about is Gallo, Bradley and Bundy are too high; Robles and Anderson Espinosa are too low.
I tend to agree with Thomas here. Gallo was in the top 15 on last year’s list that (IMHO) was deeper than this year’s list, especially at the top end. I simply can’t see going from that, to suddenly finding 100 other guys you’d want before him. If you want to drop him down because you think he won’t (can’t) make the adjustments to hit at the big-league level that’s one thing; dropping him entirely just makes no sense, especially when – as Thomas noted – nothing has changed.
If you’re just looking at the headline numbers, you see a K% jumping a lot last year. But we can’t over look the fact that he started out in AA, got promoted to AAA and then promoted to the Big Show – no time to make any sort of adjustment along the way, and oh yeah, HE WAS 21 YEARS OLD.
Know what I see? He ended 2014 at AA, K% of 39%. He started 2015 at AA…and his K% dropped to 33% and BB% jumped to 16%. His K% to start 2014 (A+) was lower than his K% when he ended 2013 (A) of 37%. His K% to start 2013 (R) of 33% was lower than his K% to end 2012 (A-) of 38%.
> Last year, he was the top player in the system where I said he could bat .220, hit 40 home runs and garner some MVP votes.
I don’t see what’s changed from this assessment. I see someone that has shown that he can make some adjustments, he’s always had double-digit BB% rates, and he hits the ball harder than anyone not named Stanton, so has always had a high BABIP. .220 won’t kill you in today’s high-K rate game if he hits 40 bombs…and if you’re in an OBP league he won’t hurt you at all (before his first taste of AAA, his lowest OBP since starting out in rookie ball in 2012 was .334).
To assume that the 46% K-rate in a 21yr old’s first taste of the majors is somehow his ‘new norm’ to me is puzzling, but boy I sure hope others think the same way. I’d be happy to trade like 80% of the current top 100 list for Gallo.
Please read the 500 words I wrote about him and the struggle I had. I understand your point but I stand by what I did. I’m not a buyer.
I’d take Brinson over Gallo any day of the week. Would’ve done it a year ago too. Gallo seems like an Adam Dunn ceiling (defense aside); I’d even say Dunn really had more impressive minor league numbers. Chicks dig the long ball but Adam Dunn 2.0 is not an exciting prospect in my eyes. Totally on board with leaving him off the top 100.
Rich, can you elaborate more on what you think happened to Archie Bradley? In 2012 and 2013 I thought he was the next coming of Jose Fernandez, sitting mid to upper 90’s with Tmax 98mph, K/9 of 9-10+, sub 2 ERA. Then 2014 to present it seems he turned into a different pitcher, ERA’s 4and 5+, K’s dropped off significantly, H/9 jumped up, and perhaps most perplexing, his average fastball velocity dropped to 92 with a Tmax of 94mph (per my research, I notice you had him at 93.3 average). Clearly the promotion to AAA and MLB can explain some statistical depression, but it doesn’t explain his declining arsenal. Further, he dominated AA in 2013 but got rocked in the same league in 2014. I don’t recall a major injury prior to the unfortunate face incident, so what gives?
Change up wasn’t very good and his fastball took a step back. Mechanics are now straighten out and change-up has improved. I think he’s a great buy-low and I’m still a believer.
How close was McMahon to making the cut? I assume the contact issues are what is keeping him back. Thanks.
Next 25. Yes, contact is a problem but I do think he’ll have power.
No Story? Many publications have him in top 50 this year. Curious why he doesn’t even appear on your top 100, especially with Tulo out of way and Reyes potentially facing issues.
Yeah, I wanted to include him but just didn’t. Yes, the sea is parting for him this year and was the biggest reason to include. In the end, I just like other players more. He’ll like be in our rookies who could make an impact in 2016 segment
Where is Anderson Espinoza? Better now and higher ceiling than most of the other pitchers on list. Also if you graduated Joey Gallo, then surely you would have had to graduate Seager and Buxton too.
I really like Espinosa and think the upside is very high, but he’s 17; at least last year when he played and I didn’t feel comfortable as a no-brainer top 100.
Gallo is my statement for this year. Suggest you read the write up.
No Story from Colorado? I’ve seen him ranked pretty high in other lists. What is there about him that you dislike so much to not include in the top 100?
I don’t like the hit tool. That said, there is value in him as he could be up this year. I wish I would have found a place in the back half but didn’t.
[…] Prospect Rankings: Prospect361.com completes their rankings of the top 100 prospects in […]
I have to say I’m mostly surprised to not find Alex Jackson in the top 100.
You should re-read the write-up. Still a ton of talent but a difficult year has dropped him. I had him just outside of the Top 100 as the potential is still there. Just more deserving people.
Good work Rich, your my go to guy.
Where would you rank Bobby Bradley?
Just outside the top 100 ?
Good lord,I don’t know how I missed that…must be the Flint water I drank for 14 months. I see Bradley is ranked
Sorry about that.
[…] 2016 Top 100 Prospects […]
Love seeing Reyes as the top arm, good work Rich
oof. You lost me at Archie Bradley (#26).
Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy, two prior studs who seem to have lost their ace-caliber stuff. My vote is they end up #4’s to #5’s, or a bullpen arm…
That would be incredibly disappointing as their arms are special. Remember, development takes time and I just don’t give up on great athletes who have premium velocity. Bundy has been hurt and he might just never recover. If he does, I think he’ll be very good. Bradley, stuff is just not quite ready. Both still very young. I still believe.
Rich, thanks for the great work. What round would you take Robles in, in a Dynasty Supplementary/Re-Draft?
Assuming June draftees, Asian newly signed guys, Newly signed Cuban players, and J2 players…first round
Nice work Rich. I always enjoy the musings of yourself and Mr. McCleod. I love that you guys go deep into the prospects on the podcast and don’t just touch on newbie level fantasy baseball.
Reynaldo Lopez top 25 (yeah!) can he stick at SP?
He didn’t make it in the Top 100. I though he would, but I just liked other guys better. Also pulling his value down is that I’m not convinced he stays in the rotation.
Just noticed a few errors on first glance…Hunter Renfroe’s team and position and Jesse Winker’s position need to be corrected.
Thanks Danny. Fixed.
[…] 2016 Prospect Rankings: Prospect361.com continues their countdown of the top 100 prospects for 2016 with #26-50. […]
Hi Rich – thanks for all the great work! Where would Sean Newcombe fall on the Braves list? It looks like he was traded to the Braves after you did your list and before you did the Angels list. I am guessing below Albies and above Blair, so probably #3? Thanks!
[…] 2016 Top 100 Prospects […]
there aren’t maybe 15 prospects better than Robles right now. He’ll be top 5 after this season once this list gets weeded out by those making it to the majors.
Looking at prospects 51-53, it kind of struck that all three were with the Diamondbacks at this time last year, with Shipley the only one who still is. My question being, is the reason Shipley is still with Arizona because they refused to trade him or because Atlanta didn’t want him? I understand it’s probably a guess from your end, but was just curious as to your opinion on the matter.
touki has the highest upside and Blair is the closest to the majors, which makes Shipley the middle child. He’s still really good. I have not heard whether they refused to trade him or the Braves weren’t as high. I know the industry still really likes Shipley.
How likely is it that Happ can stick at 2B and where would you rank him (if differently) with 2B eligibility? Put aside the Cubs crowded IF/OF situation because it wouldn’t surprise me if Happ is moved for pitching. Is he strictly an OF at this point or is there room to sneak in 2B eligibility in the future?
I didn’t consider his eligibility when ranking him. I do believe he has a chance to move up next year. Love the bat and you have to respect the Cubs development process.
[…] 2016 Prospect Rankings: Prospect361.com continues their countdown of the top 100 prospects in baseball with #51-75. […]
[…] 2016 Top 100 Prospects […]
Rich – Thanks for the great content! I’m in a weird hybrid dynasty league. We have a 26 round draft each year, the draft is standard (not snake draft), you can keep 12 keepers each year, and keepers are valued as round drafted prior year – 2 rounds (10th round pick last year can be kept as a 8th round pick this year). I’ve been following your content and podcast like a hawk this off season. I’m hoping this helps me secure a championship!
Thanks Mark. I didn’t see a question here, so I’ll just wish you good luck in the upcoming season.
I’m in a very similar league (hybrid dynasty with 28 rounds, non-snake draft). Our keepers are valued as round drafted prior year, but we don’t subtract 2 rounds. Instead, each team has 10 “contract years” that they can spend to keep their players who are not prospect-eligible. Prospect-eligible is defined as getting drafted/kept in the 16th round or later (or undrafted) and being on a team’s active roster 10 or less weeks during the previous season. You can keep as many guys as you can sign with your 10 contract years. For example, if you sign a guy for three years in the 9th round, you have 7 contract years left to spend. In addition, you can keep up to 7 prospect-eligible players for free(without having to sign them via contract years). So the most players you could ever keep would be 10 via contract (if you gave all 10 players a 1-year deal) plus 7 prospects…so 17 in all (this never happens, as people generally want to sign their best keepers for multiple year deals). Sorry, for the lengthy explanation…it’s just fun to hear about other similar leagues being out there!
I can’t imagine having all the info and real time sources and then putting them all in one ranking order.
Then there are all the LoA and R ball all-stars that seem so great until they face SP who actually pitch.
Lots of interesting names. Thanks Rich. Great job.
Thanks Allen. Yeah, it was a little more challenging this year than in year’s pass. With all the graduations, the top of the mountain is thinner and it trickles down. There still is a ton of talent but the talent is a lot more volatile with a higher flame out percentage in the Top 100 players.
It will make Dynasty League supplemental drafts trickier this year. I think it’s more important to have a Top 10 pick then in previous years and I would not blame anyone for going young, high upside in the second and third rounds.
Thanks for the kind words.
[…] 2016 Prospect Rankings: Prospect361.com kicks off their top 100 prospect countdown with #76-100. […]
How are these prospects graded? Is this a list for fantasy baseball (i.e. defense doesn’t matter) or real baseball? If the former, is this a list for keeper/dynasty leagues (i.e. future years matter) or a list for single-season leagues (only 2016 stats matter)?
Fantasy values for keeper and Dynasty
I’m not sure if I responded but YES…they are for fantasy baseball and defense matters in the likelihood to get playing time early in their career. They are ranked for Dynasty and Keeper Leagues but not be total ceiling. I do weight a player more if he is closer to the major but might have a lower ceiling. It’s not a perfect science by any stretch but in general that’s how I do it.
Good to know, and thanks for the reply!
Thanks Rich – it’s very cool to see a prospect site that is fantasy-targeted. Most prospect sites are real baseball, you are the only fantasy prospect site I have found. Keep up the good work on the podcast.
Thanks so much.