70 Comments

2014 Top 100 Prospects

Original Published Date: Jan. 14 2014

Below are our Top 100 prospect rankings for 2014.

Rank Name Team Position
1. Byron Buxton Min OF
2. Xander Bogaerts Bos SS
3. Oscar Taveras Stl OF
4. Archie Bradley Ari RHP
4a. Masahiro Tanaka NYY RHP
5. Javier Baez CHC SS
6. Taijuan Walker Sea RHP
7. Carlos Correa Hou SS
8. Addison Russell Oak SS
9. Kris Bryant CHC 3B
10. Gregory Polanco Pit OF
11. Miguel Sano Min 3B
12. Jameson Taillon Pit RHP
13. Mark Appel Hou RHP
14. Francisco Lindor Cle SS
15. Dylan Bundy Bal RHP
16. Nick Castellanos Det 3B/OF
17. Noah Syndergaard NYM RHP
18. Kevin Gausman Bal RHP
19. Travis d’Arnaud NYM C
20. Robert Stephenson Cin RHP
21. Kyle Zimmer KC RHP
22. George Springer Hou OF
23. Austin Hedges SD C
24. Jorge Soler CHC OF
25. Jonathon Gray Col RHP
26. Jackie Bradley Jr. Bos OF
27. Albert Almora CHC OF
28. Lucas Giolito Was RHP
29. Yordano Ventura KC RHP
30. Jon Singleton Hou 1B
31. Carlos Martinez Stl RHP
32. Billy Hamilton Cin OF
33. Corey Seager LAD SS
34. Eddie Butler Col RHP
35. Henry Owens Bos LHP
36. Andrew Heaney Mia LHP
37. James Paxton Sea RHP
38. Max Fried SD LHP
39. Garin Cecchini Bos 3B
40. Clint Frazier Cle OF
41. Alen Hanson Pit SS
42. Kohl Stewart Min RHP
43. Aaron Sanchez Tor RHP
44. Raul Mondesi Jr. KC SS
45. Jake Marisnick Mia OF
46. Alex Meyer Min RHP
47. Jorge Alfaro Tex C
48. Kyle Crick SF RHP
49. Maikel Franco Phi 3B
50. Lucas Sims Atl RHP
51. Kolten Wong Stl 2B
52. Tyler Glasnow Pit RHP
53. Eddie Rosario Min 2B
54. Matthew Wisler SD RHP
55. Rougned Odor Tex 2B
56. Mike Foltynewicz Hou RHP
57. Gary Sanchez NYY C
58. Julio Urias LAD LHP
59. Hunter Harvey Bal RHP
60. Jesse Biddle Phi LHP
61. Marcus Stroman Tor RHP
62. Joc Pederson LAD OF
63. Chris Owings Ari SS
64. Austin Meadows Pit OF
65. Rafael Montero NYM RHP
66. Jose Abreu CHW 1B
67. Miguel Almonte KC RHP
68. Erik Johnson CHW RHP
69. Allen Webster Bos RHP
70. Stephen Piscotty Stl OF
71. Dominic Smith NYM 1B
72. Henry Urrutia Bal OF
73. A.J. Cole Was RHP
74. Jonathan Schoop Bal 2B
75. Taylor Lindsey LAA 2B
76. Taylor Guerrieri TB RHP
77. Matt Davidson CHW 3B
78. Brian Goodwin WAS OF
79. Mookie Betts BOS 2B
80. J.R. Graham ATL  RHP
81. J.P. Crawford PHI SS
82. C.J. Cron LAA 1B
83. Luis Sardinas Tex  SS
84. Hunter Renfroe SD OF
85. David Dahl Col OF
86. Eduardo Rodriguez Bal LHP
87. Slade Heathcott NYY OF
88. Nick Kingham Pit RHP
89. Braden Shipley Ari RHP
90. D.J. Davis Tor OF
91. Lance McCullers Hou RHP
92. Blake Swihart Bos C
93. Arismendy Alcantara CHC 2B
94. D.J. Peterson Sea 3B
95. Tim Anderson CHW OF
96. Jose Berrios Min RHP
97. Alex Gonzalez Tex RHP
98. Kyle Parker Col 1B
99. Trey Ball Bos LHP
100. Franklin Barreto Tor OF

70 comments on “2014 Top 100 Prospects

  1. I really enjoy your podcast …. Both of you are very insightful . Thank you..

  2. Could you envision Betts playing CF? Thanks

  3. Rich, great work as always. Who is going to be the more productive bat, R. Odor or Mondesi? Which one should I hold in my deep keeper league? Thanks!

  4. Hey rich, great list so far. If (when) the astros add Carlos Rodon to their system, do they become the top farm in MLB?

    • Maybe…remember, Springer and Singleton will likely not qualify next year.. Plus, it depends on how many Twins, Pirates, and Cubs remain prospect eligible.

      I think it’s safe to say that with the edition of Rodon (assuming he stays healthy), the Stros will continue to have a top-5 minor league system.

  5. Greetings Rich, do you plan on a top 100 fantasy like 2013? That was great. Keep up the work and be less modest on the pod, you are knocking it out of the park.

  6. Does Boston’s system have the most prospects on your list (8)?

    • Yes. I’ve run a bunch of models to determine who has the best overall system. For depth, it’s Houston, for top-end quality it’s the Twins and Cubs, but for a combination of depth and top-end quality, I’d take the Red Sox…and throw in their clear understanding of how to build a cost effective organization so that they can spend when they need to (ala Jake Peavy), it’s pretty good to be a Red Sox fan these days. You could see a lot of Red Sox and Cardinals appearances in the playoffs for a long, long time.

  7. I know you have Taillon higher here, but for 2014, how do you rank — Gausman, Noah (NYM), Y Ventura and Taillon?

  8. You have Polanco higher than Taillon here on the top 100, but Polanco behind Taillon on the Pirates top 10. Thoughts on both?

    • They were neck and neck when I was writing the Pirates report but I did that in late August – which seems like an eternity ago. With Polanco’s late season finish and then how he looked over the winter, I changed my mind. You might say…”How can you make that move after a small sample size”? The subsequent reports I got on him, both based on his winter play and overall play forced the issue for me.

      Polanco could be a monster. Everything is there for him to be a true star. Taillon stats weren’t the greatest in 2013 but he’s going to be very good. In the end, it’s a 1 and 1a thing.

      • Keith Law is the first person I’ve seen who was bold enough to say Polanco could hit 25 HR per season at peak. Do you see that kind of power? Are we talking about a 25/35 OF in his prime?

      • Wow…I’ve been saying 20+ home runs for two years. So, yes…he could be a monster player.

  9. Great list. Is Tim Anderson officially destined for Of? Also, u have tanaka listed as on ARI

    • I tried to avoid putting multiple positions and put the likely position they will ultimately play at the big league level. I see Anderson as a center fielder.

      Thanks for the Tanaka correction. I wrote the report last night and did all the prep work after he signed. The report went through my editor but I didn’t think I could screw up copying a row and changing the team name. Oh well…thanks!

  10. When it comes to Red Sox, one difference between yours and MLB.com’s top 100 is the absence of Matt Barnes. They list him at 86. I see you ranked him low (relatively speaking) amongst Red Sox prospects as well. Also, you left off Anthony Ranaudo even though you ranked him higher among Red Sox (7th) than Swihart (9th) and Trey Ball (8th). That one’s fine, though; I don’t think Ranaudo is on anyone’s top 100.

    But I have two questions: (1) what don’t you like about Matt Barnes and (2) since I’m interested in Red Sox pitching, if Brandon Workman and Rubby De La Rosa were eligible, where (if anywhere) would they rank on this list?

    • Hey there BScarge….long time no talk.

      First, I wanted to show more love for Swihart, so he got the nod over Ranaudo, who I like but Swihart could be a real nice asset down the road.

      Matt Barnes in most systems is a Top 10 prospect. However with the Red Sox, he just missed as I took Ranaudo. Could it have been Barnes, perhaps but his secondary pitches still need work. Barnes will be a nice number #3 in the big leagues and is a Top 125 player for me.

      Brandon Workman I fear will be caught up in the numbers game and will be a reliever. It’s a shame as he has a starter arsenal but so does Trevor Rosenthal. De LaRosa is also a reliever in my opinion – great arm but would not be close to the Top 100.

  11. Hey Rich I was just wondering why you have Giolito behind guy’s like Appel and Zimmer? Is it because he’s so young and multiple years from the show? I just thought it was odd you have a guy with a #1 ceiling behind Appel who I’ve never heard mentioned as an ace. Thanks and keep up the good work I love the product you’re putting out!!

    • After Bradley, Giolito has the highest ceiling in the minors for a pitcher. Given his TJS surgery and only 38.2 innings in the minors as a 19-year-old, I thought I shoved him at 28 – really shoved him!

      I consider ceilings in doing the list but you have to look at age, injury, the floor of players, and how far they have advanced. It’s a big deal to be performing well in Double-A as opposed to short season ball where Giolito pitched. Could he be a Top 10 player in 2015 – ABSOLUTELY, but he could also struggle. I’m just trying to find a balance and trust me, 28 is at the top end of the balance – way at the top end.

  12. Love the list and love the podcast.
    Two questions: 1. Jose Abreu…based on hype, I anticipated a higher ranking. Thoughts? 2. Is there a formula to adjust non dynasty rankings to account for dynasty format when it is a first year dynasty draft? 15 teams with 4 minor league keepers and 8 major league keepers? I feel the initial draft is crucial and I don’t want to jack it up (first dynasty league for me)

    • Hey Todd,

      I’ve been pretty vocal about my position on Abreu…like the power and don’t like the bat. 20-25 HR potential, maybe more but I’m worried about a 40-grade hit tool or worse. Yes, he’ll contribute and be good but that’s the upside for me. Would prefer Jon Singleton for 1B who are prospect eligible.

      I would treat your league more like a traditional draft and don’t worry too much about prospects as it’s only 60 deep. I would try and target my first 4-6 picks as 30 and under with at least 2-3 27 or even 25 and under.

  13. Rich-
    Big fan of podcasts and work you Tim Ian and Perry have been doing…great stuff and appreciate you guys keeping the work up in the offseason. The offseaon prep work for next season is most important for success in fantasy Imo and you help us fbjunkies get that fix hays…

    Id be curious to see what your perfect roster construction would be for a mixed and nl-al only 5×5 roto league would be… ie who you would love to build a team around at each roster slot if you could in dynasty… like an all under 26 team or something like that.

    Keep the great work up and i laugh every time at Ian’s podcast mic work haha… not laughing at him just find it hilarious… mute “shut uppppppppppp!” Great stuff

    • Hays??? Curse u autocorrect

    • Thanks for the note. We love doing the podcast and I’m glad so many people find it helpful. Ian’s a hoot and a good friend. He found out last week that he got a significant role in a TV series about George Washington and his spy ring during the Revolutionary War. I think it starts in the Spring. He’ll be tough to get on the show for a while.

      Great question and I’ll either write a post about this or we’ll do a segment on our show. In general, the ideal team construct would be young under 27 year-olds at each position. Goldy at 1st, Kipnis at 2nd, Segura at SS, Machado at 3B, etc..

      There will clearly be questions such as Segura; could be Boegerts, could even be one of the trifecta of Russell/Correa/Baez kids in the minors with a older guy as a place holder.

      Anyway, thanks for the idea…

      Rich

  14. Great stuff per usual Rich.

    I have Goodwin in a dynasty league. It seems you’ve always liked him. Should I go after Eddie Rosario, Austin Meadows, Stephen Piscotty, Dominic Smith or Henry Urrutia over him? I see you have those guys rated higher but wasn’t sure if the straight fantasy aspect of it would have you prefer Goodwin. Thanks!

    • They are all in there together, so I wouldn’t try to play a 5-6 position swap game. Goodwin has as much upside as the rest of the players and closer to the big leagues then most. Meadows has the highest ceiling of the group and Urrutia is the closest to the big leagues.

      From a pure fantasy standpoint, it comes down to Meadows vs. Goodwin and again, Goodwin is pretty close to the majors.

  15. Hey Rich, nice work.

    Reading through all the team lists, I noticed three 2013 first rd picks were not there. Do you have any words on travis demeriette of the rangers or philip bickford of TOR?

    thanks

    • Bickford didn’t sign. Demeriette just didn’t make the list as the Rangers are really deep and he’s quite a ways off.

      Probably a 3B with good bat speed and tools. Definitely, somebody to watch.

  16. Other than tanaka, which SP you want most just for ’14? Archie, Walker, Noah, Taillon, Wisler or Gausman? Thank you!

  17. I have having a tough time understanding why C.J. Edwards was not in your top 100? He was practically unhittable last year and even after the trade he seemed to take his game to a higher level leading the Daytona Cubs to the FSL crown. Pierce Johnson was also pretty solid last year and the sky is the limit for him.

  18. Love your analysis. Love the podcast. Keep up the good work. Now, this may be an ignorant question, but what do you mean when you say the hitters have a “role 7″ or “role 5″ ceiling. I get that the bigger the number the better. What does this mean though?

    Thanks!!!

  19. Hey Rich. Great work as always!

    How do you see the top 5 shaking out in June’ draft?. Do you see the kid Hoffman dropping to the Cubs at 4? They need to grab a top pitcher, but the HS Kolek doesn’t seem to fit the timetable the Cubs are on. Your thoughts?

    • In a week, I’ll hit the first showcase of high school guys and the first college games start to roll. I’ll have a better sense them. With zero thought, it’s Rodon and Hoffman at the top of the list.

  20. Great stuff as usual…really love the passion you put into your work.

    Now the question, why Appel over Gray? Is it simply because of the Colorado air? Or do you see some flaws in Grays game? Thanks…

    • Thanks Steve.

      Based on pure pitching, Gray is over Appel slightly. While some lists will rank people solely based on this, I just can’t do it. Since so many people read my list for the fantasy aspect, we know what’s going to happen when Gray starts in Colorado. He’ll drop down half a grade. I do think he’ll be successful in Colorado, but it’s hard for me to envision him being a Top 15 pitcher based on pitching half his games in Coors Field. Appel has an easier shot at it. Also, don’t push Appel down too much…yeah, his fastball is a little flat, but he has three plus pitches and can really pitch. Very high floor.

  21. Why did Jorge Bonifacio fall off?

    • Still like him and he was in consideration for the Top 100. Power is developing slower than I would have liked as he still doesn’t have a lot of loft in the swing. Bat speed is really good though.

  22. Hey Rich, great pods this week. Especially discussion on drafting strategy but would have been nice to tell people AFTER my draft haha.

    Anyway, Wisler this year comes up at some point I am guessing. You like Smyly’s 2012 as a good guess at #s? 3.9 era, 8.5 K/9, 3 BB/9.

    Thanks

  23. Hi Rich!

    First of all I want to say well done with the great podcast, very insightful and exclusive. As a mailman it is the perfect way of passing a day.

    I am curious however about Miami-prospect Christian Yelich (LF). What are your views on him, and is he worth holding on to? I have another Marlin: Giancarlo Stanton as my (RF). Will that impact?

    Thanks again. I appreciate your work.

    Best Regards from Sweden
    /Kris

    • Hey Kris,

      I like Yelich a lot. He’s going to hit and steal some bases, but the power is the question. How much will he develop and how much will it be tapped down because of the park he plays in? The upside is 20/20 with a .300 average but he could also slide into just 15 home runs. Still a really good player.

      I’ve never really worried about having two players from the same club on my fantasy baseball team. Fantasy football on a week-to-week basis, yes, but baseball, not so much as there are so many games that their stats are their stats. I see Yelich in LF and Stanton in RF to start the season and to be that way until Stanton is likely traded.

  24. Did Mike Olt really fall that far????……Supposedly his eyes are fixed.

  25. Hey Rich, hope your trip goes well.

    Anyway, do you like Michael Ohlman or Jake Lowery for fantasy?

    Thanks!

  26. If you had to pick five guys on this list that will contribute soonest, who would they be? Gotta be C-Mart…polanco maybe?

    Thanks

    • Obviously, there’s Bogaerts, Wong, Tanaka, Martinez, Walker, etc… who are projected to start the season on the big league club. But, I’m assuming your question is guys who haven’t been called up yet and will make significant contribution in 2014 (i.e. potential ROY).

      1. Oscar
      2. Bradley
      3. Baez
      4. Bryant
      5. Polanco

      Not as popular but watch out…
      1. Russell – he’s more ready than most think he is…
      2. Chris Owings – Didi, really?
      3. Marcus Stroman

  27. Who has a higher ceiling: Raimel Tapia or Brian Goodwin? Someone in my dynasty league just dropped Soler and I need to lose one of those hitters for him.

  28. Need two for a keeper league, AL-Only. Who would you take out of the following? Micah Johnson, Manuel Margot, Mason Williams, Lewis Brinson, Domingo Santana, Aaron Judge, Eric Jagielo, CJ Cron, Danny Fields

    • Add Billy McKinney to the list above as well.

    • Manny Margot…this kid could be special. Yep, he’s only in Low-A but he could be very good. The other is tough to say. Cron could be a 25 HR guy and he’s in Triple-A. He might not be a minor leaguer much longer…does that matter to you? I just saw Mason Williams tonight and man, he looks like a ballplayer but still struggles recogonizing breaking pitches. I’d go Cron then Williams as my second. Margot for sure.

  29. Thanks Rich! Are you not that high on Johnson. I’m tempted by the SB total, and some power (unlike Hamilton).

  30. Hey Rich,

    Continued great stuff from you.

    I am looking to add a pitching prospect to my dynasty team. The best ones in the Top 100 are gone. Who are a couple you would look to add that are getting drafted this year, ie college or high school kid (after Rodon)? I see Aiken and Kolek are both in the mix, but high schoolers. Are there any college guys you’d rather have on a fantasy squad?

    Thanks for all the help.

    • Just double checked, the following players are owned: Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola, Luke Weaver, Brady Aiken, Jeff Hoffman.

      • Erick Feddie of UNLV is getting a lot of helium in terms of college pitchers for 2014 draft. Tyler Kolak, HS pitcher that is projected to go in the Top 5 of the draft. Big kid that throws really hard (100).

        Minor League guys not on Top 100. Vince Velasquez (Hou), Brian Johnson (Red Sox), and Josh Hader (Hou). All speculative but off to very good starts; particularly VV.

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