While it appears the Astros are ending the waning phase of their window, they continue to win. However, the Major League team is aging, and while there is talent in the minor leagues, the players are mostly complementary.
Jacob Melton is once again the top prospect and appears to be just about ready to help. He has speed and power and the best chance to become an impact player. Zach Dezenzo is also an intriguing player who had a brief audition in Houston over the summer. Of course, Pedro Leon is still kicking around, but he does not appear to be in the Astros’ plans anytime soon. Luis Baez has big-boy power with concerns about how much he’ll hit, and Brice Matthews falls into the category of “if only he could hit.” The strikeout rates are scary.
The system’s pitching is thin, with A.J. Blubaugh having the best chance to develop into a mid-rotation starter.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Jacob Melton
- Biggest Mover: AJ Blubaugh
- Biggest Disappointment: Pedro Leon – I’m not sure it’s all his fault, but he needs a change of scenery.
- Emerging Prospect: Anderson Brito
1. Jacob Melton (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: Toolsy outfielder who continues to show improved contact skills. If he can shorten up his swing, there is All-Star upside.
Jacob Melton is a toolsy outfielder who was the Astros’ second-round pick in 2022. While his game has plenty of exciting tools, it also has plenty of swing-and-miss. However, the Astros have worked well with players like Melton to shorten their swing, and his contact improvements in 2023 continued, at least for the first half of 2024. In 58 games in Double-A, he struck out 22.3% of the time with ten home runs and 19 stolen bases. His strikeout rate improvements continued with his promotion to Triple-A. However, he only posted a .405 SLG in 47 games.
He’s a plus runner with plenty of bat speed to project 20 home runs annually. If he can keep his strikeout rates reasonable, there’s a ton of fantasy goodness here.
2. Zach Dezenzo (1B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 1B/2B
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: He has intriguing power and speed with enough bat control to hit at the highest level. He needs consistent playing time to show it.
Zach Dezenzo was the Astros’ 12th-round draft pick out of Ohio State in 2022. He spent the first two months of the 2024 season on the IL, recovering from a wrist injury. Once healthy, he moved quickly through Double and Triple-A and made his MLB debut in August.
There are significant bat speed and hard-hit rates in the profile. Basballsavant shows his bat speed is 75.9 MPH, which places him in the 90th percentile in the league. The data on his chase and in-zone contact is incomplete, but his chase rates seem average to above average, while his z-contact is below average. He’s an above-average runner and should be able to steal low double-digit bases early in his career.
Dezenzo is an underrated prospect who is a terrific athlete with enough power to hit 15+ home runs and plenty of speed to steal similar base totals. The upside is a full-time regular. He plays first base and could also move to second if needed.
3. Luis Baez (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: He has plus bat speed and is expected to grow into a 30-home-run hitter. He’s aggressive at the plate, and the swing can get long.
Asheville, one of the best places in baseball to hit, agreed with Luis Baez in 2024. At home games, he hit .290 with an impressive .531 SLG with eight home runs. On the road, it wasn’t as good. He hit .211 with a .371 SLG. He got a late-season promotion to Double-A, where he should start the 2025 season.
While the power has been nice, he’s also become more aggressive. I’ve seen this often with players in hitters’ parks. As they gain confidence, that confidence turns into overeagerness at the plate, often resulting in a low walk rate.
I still like Baez a lot. He should grow into 30 home run pop, maybe even more. But, the swing does get long, and he has some chase in his approach. He won’t turn 21 until January, so fantasy managers need to remain patient as he’s far from a finished product.
4. Brice Matthews (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS or Top 50 OF with contact risk
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: Speed and power but with concern about how much contact he will make.
Brice Matthews is athletic, hits the ball hard, and is a 70-runner. He’s split his time between shortstop and third base but has the speed and athleticism to move to second base or center field.
While the tools are alluring, he hunts fastballs and is a dead pull hitter. He struggles against soft stuff and can be beaten by velocity up in the zone because he tries to pull everything. I worry that he has a little Sam Hilliard in him, although he’s always walked a lot, and Hilliard barely knows how to spell “Walk.”
In 2024, he split most of his time between High and Double-A and put up solid home runs and stolen base totals (15 HRs and 26 SBs), but he struck out way too much – 32% strikeout rate. The Astros gave him a late-season promotion to Triple-A, where he struck out 40% of the time.
He’s an intriguing guy who will light up Statcast. He could have a significant fantasy impact if he can control his strikeouts. If he can’t, well, know your parameters!
5. AJ Blubaugh (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP or Reliever with upside
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s missing bats and throwing strikes. However, his stuff looks more like a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Blubaugh started the 2024 season in Double-A, but after a dominating debut performance, he was immediately promoted to Triple-A, where he spent the rest of the season.
He has a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider/sweeper, cutter, and change-up). He can run his fastball up to 96 MPH, but it sits at 93 to 94 MPH. It doesn’t have great ride through the zone, and in fact, none of his pitches have great spin. Consequently, when he misses with his pitches in-zone, he gets hit hard. So far, it has not shown up in his stat line, but it looks pretty ordinary. He has an athletic delivery, so he can repeat his delivery, which might allow him to pitch at the back of the rotation or, more likely, as a bullpen arm.
6. Shay Whitcomb (3B/2B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Corner or Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: The profile has power and speed, but there are concerns about how much he will hit.
With Alex Bregman sidelined with inflammation in his elbow in mid-August, the Astros turned to 25-year-old Shay Whitcomb. He had a terrific statistical season in Triple-A, batting .293, showing power and speed. Whitcomb finished the Hollywood story by knocking in the winning run in his first game in the big leagues.
Whitcomb hit 35 home runs in 2023 and was on a similar pace in 2024. He’s never been able to make consistent contact, as his swing gets long – chase rates and in-zone contact are average. He’s also aggressive at the plate, posting low walk rates. There is some decent speed, and he could steal 10 to 12 bases yearly.
If you add it all up, there is 20-10 upside with pressure on his batting average and likely a sub-. 300 OBP. Fantasy managers will take that; perhaps a rebuilding team would. However, will the Astros?
7. Pedro Leon (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: He finally got a cup of coffee in the Major Leagues, but after seven games and striking out half the time, he was sent back to Triple-A.
Pedro Leon slashed .300/.375/.528 with 19 home runs and 23 stolen bases and finally got the call to Houston. He didn’t hit in seven games and was gone. He returned to Triple-A and kept hitting, ending the season with 24 home runs and 29 stolen bases.
Baseballsavant shows a lot of chase in his approach, with solid in-zone contact (z-contact). He’s a plus runner with average bat speed and exit velocity. I will admit that Leon could be a Quad-4 player, but I think he gets another shot. Maybe (hopefully) it won’t be with the Astros. I still think there’s something there.
8. Walker Janek (C, #28)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Second catcher
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: Average bat speed with some concern about how much he’ll hit.
Walker Janek was the first catcher selected in the 2024 Draft (Pick #28). He reminds me a lot of Korey Lee, another catcher the Astros took in the first round (Pick #32). Lee excelled in college like Janek, but the bat speed and exit velocity point to below-average power. Plus, Lee has never hit, and I worry the same thing will happen with Janek. Defensively, I think he’ll be fine, but he feels more like a backup catcher than a potential starting MLB catcher.
The Astros aggressively assigned him to High-A after he signed, and he slashed .175/.214/.289 in 25 games. While it was a small sample size, it supports some of my initial thinking.
9. Miguel Ullola (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 60 SP
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a big arm with a terrific fastball-slider combination. He doesn’t always throw strikes but did show improvements in 2024.
Miguel Ullola has a great arm, and in 2024, he showed improvements. He has nasty stuff, and opposing batters hit .162 against him. Despite an average change-up, there were no splits. Controlling his arsenal continues to be challenging, but his 5.2 BB/9 ratio was the best of his career.
His future role is likely a bullpen arm, but he’s only 22 and is improving, so I would not rule out a starter. After all, the Astros’ track record in developing Latin pitchers is excellent. If he does wind up in the bullpen, the fastball-slider should play up, giving him a potential closer ceiling.
10. Parker Smith (RHP, #131)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 70 SP or Reliever
- Last Updated: 12/31/2024
- Tools Summary: He has an average arsenal and projects to pitch at the back of the rotation.
Parker Smith was the Astros’ fourth-round pick last July, signing for slightly less than the slot. He was a three-year starter at Rice but did not pitch well in his draft year. In 15 starts, he posted a 4.94 ERA, striking out only 7.9 per nine. He has the size to start with an arsenal that should allow him to pitch at the back of the rotation.
Smith was not assigned to an affiliate after being drafted. He should be assigned to Low or High-A to begin his career in 2025.
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