It’s easy to compare the Orioles to what the Houston Astros did ten years ago. The playbook is the same, and the leadership for the Orioles can be traced back to the Astros rebuild. The other comparison you can make is that it’s working.
The Orioles Major League team is good but will be much better over the next few years as the players mature and others are promoted. The system is light on pitching, but I think you’ll see the Orioles trade some of their young hitters to acquire pitching both in-season and in the off-season.
Now, the owner has already cried “poor,” and this is the biggest difference in what Houston did.
When Jeff Luhnow interviewed with Jim Crane for the General Manager’s job, he presented multiple slides that pointed to the Houston market to support a winner. Apparently, that section was omitted from Mike Elias’ deck, or the Orioles ignored it. If the Orioles cannot sign their young core long-term, and several of them are represented by the Boras Corporation (Gunnar and Jackson, to name two), they will have to pivot to a Tampa Bay Rays model. While that’s a harder model to follow, the Rays have proven that it’s possible. Given the Orioles’ ability to acquire and develop talent through the use of advanced metrics, I believe they can make that work.
For fantasy managers, owning Orioles’ minor league players is getting tricky. Besides Jackson Holliday and Sam Basallo, many of the other players are blocked. I always bet on the talent, as playing time usually works out. Sometimes, it takes longer, but good players rarely get left out in the cold.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Jackson Holliday
- Biggest Mover: Sam Basallo
- Biggest Disappointment: Colton Cowser
- Emerging Prospect: Luis Almeyda
1. Jackson Holliday (SS)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 10 SS or Top 5 2B
- Tools Summary: He’s showing all the tools to be a star.
My advice last winter for fantasy managers in Supplemental Drafts who were picking #1 was to trade down to the number two pick and take Jackson Holliday. The tools of Andruw Jones could be special, but after spending time talking with the Orioles evaluators, they convinced me that Holliday was the better hitter with big tools as well. He’s doing everything to prove them right.
He turned 19 last December and ripped through the minor leagues, hitting at every level. When it was all said and done, he posted a .323/.442/.499 with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases. He also walked nearly as much as he struck out, posting a slightly better-than-league-average strikeout rate.
The tools are not Acuna-esque, but he will hit with a chance to go 20-20 annually. Remember, he was a teenager that didn’t spend more than two months at any level. It was a truly remarkable season.
The only question is when does he arrive in Baltimore, and where does he play? I’ll take a stab. I’ll go with May 1st and second base with a backup plan of third base. Could he break camp? Sure, but hasn’t the owner already cried “poor” about having to spend money? Why would they give up the opportunity to get an extra year of team control?
2. Sam Basallo (C/1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 C/1B
- Tools Summary: An athletic catcher/first baseman with a feel to hit and potential future plus power.
The Orioles challenged Sam Basallo all season long, and he didn’t disappoint. As one of the youngest players in Low-A, he posted a .887 OPS with 12 home runs. The Orioles rewarded his effort with a surprising promotion to High-A on August 1st where he kept on hitting. And if that were not enough, he played in Double-A for the last week of the season and hit .467.
He’s a big, strong kid with plenty of bat speed to project future plus power, and he is athletic enough to steal some bases early in his career. Most impressive is how well he has controlled the strike zone.
Defensively, despite being 6-foot-3, he’s athletic enough to be a solid-average catcher, but the Orioles might move him to first or even right field so they can take advantage of his plus arm. He’s quickly becoming one of the best young prospects in the game.
3. Colton Cowser (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 OF
- Tools Summary: High on-base player with emerging power and some speed early in his career.
Colton Cowser was an extremely productive player in the minors in 2023, slashing .300/.417/.521. Therefore, it was disappointing when he flopped in his first taste of Major League action.
He’s better than that, and I expect his next kick at the can will be better. That said, he’s not without flaws. While he’s always been able to control the strike zone, work counts deep, and take walks, his game has some swing-and-miss. However, he will walk a lot and will always be valuable in an OBP league. If you put it all together, the ceiling is an impact player with a .260 batting average, at least 100 points on top of that for OBP, 18 to 22 home runs, and some stolen bases early in his career.
4. Heston Kjerstad (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF
- Tools Summary: If the improved contact skills are real, we might be looking at a full-time power-hitting corner outfielder.
My tapes look old on Heston Kjerstad. I never liked the swing, but the numbers are starting to speak, and they are showing a full-time power hitter.
The plus power was evident when I saw him in the Fall League in 2022. He can hit a ball a long way. But he chased too many pitches out of the zone and has always been aggressive at the plate.
That is not a recipe for success in the upper minor leagues or the Majors. This year, the strikeout rate has improved meaningfully while not affecting his power output. If this is a skill change, then he starts to get interesting. The longer he does it, the more real it looks. There is 30 home run pop in the bat, and if it can come with a .260 batting average and a low .300s OBP, it should be enough to make him a full-time regular. He’s a 40-runner, so speed will not be a big part of the profile.
He did get a September call-up and played in a handful of games with a couple of home runs. Could he break camp with Baltimore next season? Perhaps.
5. Coby Mayo (3B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2023-24 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 1B
- Tools Summary: The swing suggests 25+ home run power potential, but it will likely come with pressure on his batting average.
At 6-foot-5, Coby Mayo is a big dude with a big swing. There should be at least 20 home run pop at the highest level, but I could see that total going well North. It will come down to how much he hits, and that’s where his big swing comes into play. He’s always struck out too much, and I believe that will continue. He does work walks, so you should expect at least 80 points on top of his batting average for his OBP. Throw in 25 or more home runs and that should play at the highest level. I don’t think it will be at third, as you rarely see 6-foot-5 guys handling third base.
6. Dylan Beavers (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Tools Summary: He’s a big kid with plus power potential who is stealing bases. The power is more doubles power currently, but over-the-fence should eventually emerge.
Beavers was the Orioles’ supplemental first-round pick in 2022 from the University of California. He’s a big kid at 6-foot-4 with huge raw power and cut down impressively on his swing-and-miss last season, posting a league-average 22% K-Rate.
He’s athletic and might be able to stay in center field with a chance to steal double-digit bases annually. He is patient at the plate, so he gets a step up for on-base percentage leagues. The power is more doubles-power currently, but based on his bat speed and swing path, it’s reasonable to predict 20 future home run power.
You can squint and see a 20-20 player early in his career.
7. Connor Norby (2B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Tools Summary: A high-floor player that lacks explosive tools.
I’ve seen Connor Norby play several times, and I would characterize him as playing with “Brett Gardner intensity.” While he plays hard, he’s limited physically. He’s not a big kid, and the average exit velocities he generated in Triple-A point to a 15 to 18 home run player as opposed to a 20+ home run guy. Plus, he’s been more aggressive at the plate as he’s moved through the system posting a sub 9% walk rate which would put him in the lower half of the league. Throw in average speed, and it feels more like a middle infielder in a fantasy league. He’s far from a star, but his intensity and high baseball IQ should give him a long baseball shelf life.
8. Enrique Bradfield (OF, #17)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with risk of being a 4th outfielder
- Tools Summary: An 80-grade runner that, with some swing tweaks, could unlock power. The Orioles are a perfect landing spot for him.
Enrique Bradfield’s carrying tool is his 80-grade speed, with the MLB Network comping him to Willie McGee on Draft Night. It was hard to deny the similarities when they threw up his swing and put it side-by-side with McGee. He does produce high exit velocities, but his swing is more geared for contact. This is where you have to trust the Orioles.
If the Orioles can tweak the swing to get him more upright and add loft, that below-average current power will turn into average power quickly. From a fantasy standpoint, he could steal 40 bases, and his elite defense will make him a big leaguer. On the other hand, if the Orioles can’t get him to average power, he’ll be a late-inning defensive outfielder, otherwise known as a fourth outfielder.
I’m currently on the fence, but history would tell us to lean on the positive, as the Orioles don’t miss on early draft picks.
9. Joey Ortiz (SS)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Tools Summary: He has a feel to hit with a bit of speed and power. He’s currently blocked in Baltimore.
While Joey Ortiz did get into 15 games in the Major Leagues over the first half of the season, he didn’t show much and was eventually sent down for good on June 23rd. It’s a shame, as I think he can play with a feel to hit and a bit of power and speed. His sprint speed was in the 73rd percentile, and he tagged a ball at 109.8 MPH. Does he get a chance in Baltimore to play full-time? It doesn’t seem likely, but players get traded all the time, and in the right situation, he could be a 12-12 type of player who can hit.
10. Cade Povich (LHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP
- Tools Summary: He’s a work-in-progress, but assuming the Orioles can get him back to throwing strikes, there could be something here.
Many Orioles fans were upset when they sent Jorge Lopez packing at the 2022 deadline. However, not only did they acquire Yennier Cano, who is saving games now for Baltimore, but Cade Povich has a chance to contribute as a number three/number four starter as early as 2024.
He’s not a hard thrower, with his fastball tapping out at 94 MPH with a high spin rate of 2300 RPM. Because of the spin, the pitch produces a high level of whiffs. He throws his cutter a lot, and while it has good pitch characteristics, it doesn’t miss a ton of bats. His slider does, and it has excellent horizontal run. His change-up doesn’t have a ton of fade but looks more like a John Means type of hard slider. In fact, his overall pitch arsenal resembles Means.
Control continues to be what is holding Povich back, as he posted a 4.7 BB/9 in 28 games in 2023.
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