Houston Astros Farm System: The Astros’ farm system blends potential fantasy-impact, but volatile bats, with a mix of equally volatile arms.
Summary
The Astros’ system features a handful of true fantasy-impact bats, led by Jacob Melton and Brice Matthews, both combine athleticism with speed/power blends that could translate into everyday roles. Xavier Neyens offers big raw power with patience, and Walker Janek is a rare catcher who brings both pop and speed alongside plus defense. Together, they form the core of Houston’s most exciting fantasy prospects.
On the pitching side, Bryce Mayer and Alonzo Tredwell stand out as rotation candidates. Mayer throws strikes with three solid secondaries and could grow into a mid-rotation arm if velocity ticks up post-TJS, while Tredwell’s unique pitch shapes and 6-foot-8 frame make him an analytics favorite despite average velocity. Ryan Forcucci and Miguel Ullola are more volatile — Forcucci has mid-rotation upside if he returns strong from surgery, while Ullola’s upper-90s fastball/slider combo likely fits best in relief.
Among the developmental bats, Caden Powell, Luis Baez, Nick Monistere, and Kevin Alvarez offer intriguing but risky profiles. Powell pairs hard contact with speed but must cut down a 30% strikeout rate, Baez has significant raw power but struggled post-injury with spin and strikeouts, and Monistere brings rare second-base power but needs to refine his approach. Alvarez, meanwhile, made a notable impression in the DSL with strong contact skills and steady defense, positioning himself as a sleeper utility infielder to watch as he climbs the ladder.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Jacob Melton – Plus speed/power blend, patient approach, everyday outfield upside.
- Brice Matthews – Athletic shortstop, above-average pop, speed, versatile defensive profile.
- Xavier Neyens – Raw power, above-average bat speed, patient approach, three-outcome potential.
- Walker Janek – Catcher with solid power, surprising speed, plus defense, OBP upside.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Zach Cole – Speed-first outfielder, gap power, solid defense, fourth outfielder profile.
- Kevin Alvarez – Contact-oriented infielder, average power, steady glove, utility role projection.
- Ethan Frey – Balanced power/speed, solid strike-zone feel, fourth outfielder upside.
- Joseph Sullivan – 70-grade runner, modest pop, passive approach, regular role possible.
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
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2026 Player Profiles
1. Jacob Melton (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B with contact risk
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: Plus speed/power blend, patient approach, everyday outfield upside.
Jacob Melton’s path with Houston has already shown both promise and pitfalls. Drafted in the second round in 2022, he reached the Majors in 2025 and flashed his athleticism, but the swing-and-miss issues that followed him through the minors carried over. In 74 plate appearances, he struck out 28 times against just five walks, leading to a September demotion. The tools are evident — bat speed, strength, and plus running ability — but the approach remains raw and aggressive, often expanding the zone.
Developmentally, Melton’s profile is built on loud traits that need refinement. His bat speed and strength project 15–20 home run power, and his plus speed has already translated into stolen bases both in Houston and Triple-A. The question is whether he can rein in his approach enough to sustain consistent contact and keep his OBP afloat. In a win-now organization like the Astros, patience is limited, so his ability to adjust quickly will dictate how much opportunity he gets at the Major League level.
From a fantasy perspective, Melton is the type of player who can swing leagues if the hit tool stabilizes. The power-speed combination is real, and even in a limited time in Houston, he showed efficiency on the bases. However, the strikeout rate and poor walk profile put pressure on batting average and OBP, which could cap his playing time. He’s a flawed but intriguing asset — managers should give him leash, recognizing that if he sticks, he offers 15–20 homers with double-digit steals, but the volatility makes him better suited for deeper formats or as a speculative upside play.
2. Brice Matthews (2B/3B/SS)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B with contact risk
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: Athletic shortstop, above-average pop, speed, versatile defensive profile.
Brice Matthews brings an athletic profile highlighted by plus bat speed and 70-grade running ability. He spent most of 2025 in Triple-A but earned a look in Houston, where he posted a .167/.222/.452 slash line with three home runs across 47 plate appearances. The raw tools were evident, but his strikeout issues loomed large, with 20 punchouts in that brief sample. Matthews hits the ball hard and has the physical traits to impact games, yet his approach remains the limiting factor.
Digging deeper, the strikeout rate isn’t purely a matter of contact skill. Matthews owns a very low chase rate and above-average in-zone contact rates, suggesting he can handle pitches when he swings. The problem is passivity — he takes too many hittable pitches, falls behind in counts, and racks up called strikes. Even with some improvement, it’s hard to envision him striking out less than 30% of the time, which points to a batting average ceiling around .230. The tools are loud, but the approach must evolve for him to maximize them.
From a fantasy perspective, Matthews is a Statcast darling in waiting. His hard-hit rates, bat speed, and sprint speed all pop, and if he makes enough contact, he could deliver a blend of power and stolen bases that plays in any format. The risk is obvious — high strikeout rates could limit playing time and drag down ratios — but the upside is enticing. He’s a speculative fantasy contributor who could break out with an approach adjustment, making him a worthwhile stash in deeper leagues or dynasty formats.
3. Kevin Alvarez (OF)
- Highest Level: DSL ETA: 2028-29 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 07/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Contact-oriented infielder, average power, steady glove, utility role projection.
Kevin Alvarez represents Houston’s most significant international signing since Pedro Leon, joining the organization in January 2025 with a $2 million bonus. At just 17 years old, Alvarez is far more physical than Leon was at the same stage, standing 6-foot-4 with athleticism and projection that immediately stands out. His DSL debut was impressive, producing a .310/.419/.455 slash line with two home runs and 11 stolen bases, showing both impact potential and polish beyond his years.
The concern with Alvarez’s frame is whether his size will eventually lead to strikeout issues, but early signs are encouraging. He managed the strike zone well in his debut, walking more than he struck out and posting a 10% strikeout rate. That discipline, paired with his physicality, suggests he could grow into a middle-of-the-order bat with speed that plays early in his career. While he remains raw and years away from Houston, Alvarez has already distinguished himself as a unique talent in the system.
From a fantasy perspective, Alvarez is the type of international signing dynasty managers should circle. The combination of size, athleticism, and early performance makes him one of the more intriguing long-term stashes in the organization. He’s still a teenager with plenty of development ahead, so outcomes vary widely, but the upside is substantial. If he continues to show plate discipline alongside his physical tools, Alvarez could emerge as a cornerstone fantasy asset in the coming years.
4. Xavier Neyens (3B, #21)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2029 Fantasy Ceiling: Corner Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: Raw power, above-average bat speed, patient approach, three-outcome potential.
Xavier Neyens stands out in the Astros system for his raw power, which comes from a combination of above-average bat speed and natural strength. At 6-foot-4, he has the physical presence of a middle-of-the-order bat, and his ability to drive the ball with authority is already evident. While his swing can get long at times, leading to potential contact issues, Neyens has shown patience at the plate and a willingness not to chase outside the zone.
The developmental question centers on whether his size and swing length will ultimately limit his hit tool. There’s a chance he grows into a true three-outcome hitter — homers, walks, and strikeouts — but given his age and current approach, there’s reason to believe he can refine his contact skills. His discipline in not expanding the zone is a positive indicator, suggesting he has the foundation to manage strikeouts as he matures.
From a fantasy perspective, Neyens is a classic upside play. The raw power looks real, and if he maintains his patience, he could evolve into a slugger who contributes in home runs and OBP, even if batting average remains volatile. Dynasty managers should give him the benefit of the doubt at this stage, recognizing that while the risk of contact issues is present, the ceiling is enticing enough to warrant attention as a long-term stash.
5. Walker Janek (C)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 20 Catcher
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: Catcher with solid power, surprising speed, plus defense, OBP upside.
Walker Janek, Houston’s first-round pick in 2024 out of Sam Houston State, spent 2025 repeating High-A after a quiet professional debut. In 399 plate appearances, he posted a .263/.333/.433 slash line, showing above-average exit velocity, solid power, and surprising speed with 30 stolen bases. That speed has been a consistent part of his game dating back to college, and while there is some swing-and-miss in his profile, it stems largely from a high-leverage swing designed to generate more power.
Asheville’s hitter-friendly environment certainly boosted his numbers, but Janek proved he could produce away from home as well, suggesting his success wasn’t park-dependent. His defensive skills are a clear strength, with plus ability behind the plate that should earn him a Major League role. The question is whether his bat will support him as more than a backup. His 2025 season was encouraging, but Double-A will be the real test of whether he can refine his approach and maintain production against advanced pitching.
From a fantasy perspective, Janek is intriguing because of his speed at the catcher position — a rare asset. If he hits enough to stay in the lineup regularly, the combination of solid power and stolen bases could make him a sneaky contributor in dynasty formats. The risk is that his bat stalls and he settles into a backup role, but the defensive floor ensures he’ll get opportunities. For now, he’s worth monitoring closely, with the speed making him a tempting stash in deeper leagues.
6. Zach Cole (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Wide range including an impact player with a chance he never makes it
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: Speed-first outfielder, gap power, solid defense, fourth outfielder profile.
Zach Cole was a tenth-round pick in 2022 and has consistently flashed an intriguing blend of speed and power. Across multiple seasons, he’s averaged 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases, showing the kind of athleticism that can impact games. Houston gave him a late-season look in 2025, and he responded with four home runs and three steals in just 52 plate appearances. The tools are loud, but the underlying swing-and-miss issues remain a significant hurdle.
Cole’s strikeout rate has never dipped below 30% since his debut in A ball, and in Houston he struck out 20 times in 52 plate appearances — a 38.5% clip. That mirrors his 35% strikeout rate in the minors, underscoring how much contact risk defines his profile. The raw power and speed are real, but without meaningful improvement in approach or contact skills, it’s difficult to envision him sustaining success against Major League pitching.
From a fantasy perspective, Cole is a classic high-risk, high-reward stash. The upside is tantalizing — legitimate 20-20 potential with room for more if he hits enough — but the strikeout rate could easily sink his batting average and limit playing time. Managers who invest need to understand the volatility: he could be a breakout contributor if the hit tool stabilizes, or he could fade quickly if the swing-and-miss persists. In deeper formats, he’s worth monitoring closely as a speculative upside play.
7. Ethan Frey (OF, #95)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: Balanced power/speed, solid strike-zone feel, fourth outfielder upside.
Ethan Frey was Houston’s third-round pick in 2024 after a breakout junior season at LSU, where he slashed .331/.420/.641 with 13 home runs and four stolen bases. A late bloomer who barely played in his first two collegiate seasons, Frey surged in his draft year and carried that momentum into pro ball. Assigned to Low-A after signing, he impressed with a .330 average, three home runs, and nine stolen bases, while keeping his strikeouts manageable at a league-average 20.5% rate.
The foundation of Frey’s game is good power and a solid understanding of the strike zone. His mechanics aren’t fully polished, and there are adjustments to be made, but the Astros believe they can refine his swing to unlock even more power. His ability to control the zone and avoid excessive strikeouts gives him a chance to develop into more than just organizational depth, though his ceiling will depend on how much impact the bat ultimately provides.
From a fantasy perspective, Frey profiles as a fourth outfielder with upside. The combination of power, speed, and plate discipline makes him a sneaky candidate in deeper formats, particularly dynasty leagues. While he may not project as a star, his balanced skill set could provide useful contributions if he earns playing time, and in First-Year Player Drafts, he’s worth a mid-to-late round gamble for managers looking to stash potential value.
8. Joseph Sullivan (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: 70-grade runner, modest pop, passive approach, regular role possible.
Joseph Sullivan was drafted by Houston in the seventh round of 2024 out of South Alabama, where he was a three-year starter who showcased both speed and power. In his draft year, he slugged nine home runs and stole 14 bases in just 38 games, and he’s continued to demonstrate similar traits across High-A and Double-A in 2025. His exit velocity is average, but there’s enough strength to project 10–12 home run pop, and his 70-grade speed makes him a dynamic athlete.
The hit tool remains the question mark. Sullivan has become too passive at the plate, walking 18.3% of the time in 2025, which on its own would be encouraging. However, that patience is paired with a 28% strikeout rate, leaving him vulnerable to falling behind in counts and limiting his ability to make consistent contact. A more aggressive approach could help him get into better hitting situations, potentially unlocking more of his offensive upside.
From a fantasy perspective, Sullivan doesn’t project as a star but has enough tools to intrigue. His speed alone makes him worth monitoring, and if he can adjust his approach to cut down strikeouts, he could evolve into a useful contributor with modest power and impact stolen bases. Dynasty managers should keep an eye on him as a developmental piece — not a must-add, but someone who could grow into a regular if the hit tool takes a step forward.
9. Bryce Mayer (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: Strike-throwing starter, average velocity, strong secondaries, rotation stability.
Bryce Mayer earned recognition as the Astros’ pitcher of the year in 2025 after logging 87.2 innings across High-A and Double-A. He posted a 4.11 ERA with 112 strikeouts against just 27 walks, showcasing command and consistency. While his fastball tops out at 94 MPH and doesn’t carry the premium velocity often associated with frontline arms, Mayer compensates with three average-to-above-average secondary pitches and a strong ability to throw strikes.
The developmental question is whether Mayer can add velocity as he continues to build back from Tommy John surgery, which he returned from in late 2024. The Astros carefully managed his workload to protect his health, and his frame and athleticism suggest there’s room for added strength. If he does gain a tick or two on the fastball, his arsenal could play up significantly, giving him more than just back-end starter potential.
From a fantasy perspective, Mayer is a sleeper worth monitoring. His current floor is that of a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter who can provide innings and strikeouts without hurting ratios. If velocity gains materialize, he could push into mid-rotation territory, making him a sneaky dynasty stash. Managers should keep him on their radar, recognizing both the stability he offers and the upside that could emerge as his arm strength continues to develop.
10. AJ Blubaugh (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Reliever, maybe a back-of-the-rotation starter
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: 94 MPH fastball, slider, inconsistent command, bullpen future.
AJ Blubaugh made his Major League debut on April 30, tossing 4.0 innings against the Tigers and allowing two solo home runs while striking out six and walking one. He returned to Triple-A afterward, where he posted a 5.27 ERA, but finished the season back in Houston’s bullpen with an impressive run — 20 scoreless innings to close out the year. His versatility has been tested in both starting and relief roles, but his performance in shorter stints stood out.
Blubaugh’s arsenal features a fastball that sits at 94 MPH with solid spin and a slider that grades as his best secondary pitch. However, none of his offerings consistently grade out as plus, and his struggles with command stem from an inconsistent delivery. As a starter, the lack of control and broad pitch mix limit his effectiveness, but in relief, his velocity ticks up, and his simplified approach plays better. The profile points toward a bullpen future rather than a rotation role.
From a fantasy perspective, Blubaugh is more relevant in deeper formats or leagues that value relievers who can provide strikeouts and ratio stability. His ability to miss bats was evident in his debut and his late-season bullpen run, but the lack of a plus pitch and command issues cap his upside. If he sticks in relief, he could carve out value as a middle reliever or setup option, but he’s unlikely to emerge as a high-leverage closer without significant improvement in control.
20. Alimber Santa (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: High Leveraged Reliever
- Last Updated: 01/02/2026
- Tools Summary: 95 MPH sinker, sharp slider, control issues, high-leverage bullpen upside.
Alimber Santa transitioned to the bullpen full-time in 2025 and delivered strong results across Double-A and Triple-A. Over 70 innings, he posted a 2.31 ERA with 82 strikeouts, establishing himself as one of Houston’s more intriguing relief prospects. His arsenal is built around a 95 MPH sinker with heavy horizontal movement and a sharp slider that spins at 2800 RPM, giving him a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon.
The challenge for Santa remains control. He walked batters at a 5.0 BB/9 clip in 2025, which limits his effectiveness despite the quality of his stuff. That said, his athleticism suggests he has room to improve, and if he can refine his delivery enough to reach average command, his arsenal could play in high-leverage situations. The sinker-slider combination is good enough to miss bats and induce weak contact, making him a potential impact reliever.
From a fantasy perspective, Santa is worth monitoring as a bullpen arm who could debut in Houston by 2026. If the control improves, he has the upside to grow into a high-leverage role, possibly even a closer. For now, dynasty managers should view him as a speculative stash with strikeout upside, recognizing that his path to fantasy relevance hinges on whether he can trim the walks and harness his stuff consistently.
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