The Mariners system hit on all (or most) cylinders in 2023. Cole Young and Harry Ford have developed into two of the best prospects in the game. If you believe Ford is the better prospect and should be #1 overall, it would be tough to argue against you. I ultimately went with Young, more because Ford is still projected as a catcher.
The Mariners also did very well in the 2023 MLB Draft when they drafted three excellent high school players. They grabbed Colt Emerson with the #22 pick and then went with two high-upside high school players, Johnny Farmelo and Taj Peete, with picks 29 and 30. Emerson got off to a blistering start and might move more quickly through the minor leagues than I initially thought.
The Mariners appear on the doorstep of a nice playoff window. They’ve got a young and talented Major League team and plenty of depth in their minor league system. The Baseball GM book states in the opening paragraph – That’s how you do it.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Cole Young
- Biggest Mover: Tyler Locklear
- Biggest Disappointment: Emerson Hancock
- Emerging Prospect: Felnin Celesten
1. Cole Young (SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS or Top 10 2B
- Tools Summary: He’s demonstrating a plus hit tool with speed and solid power potential.
Cole Young was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2022 and has developed into one of the best prospects in the game. He’s showing excellent contact and walking as much as he’s striking out. He is showing solid pop, but it’s likely 12 to 15 home run pop instead of 20+ long-term. He’s a plus runner and could easily steal 20 to 25 bases annually. If he stays at shortstop, the ceiling is a Top 15 shortstop. If he moves to second, he could be a Top 5 fantasy player at that position.
2. Harry Ford (C)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 10 Catcher
- Tools Summary: Speed and power with a feel to hit. If he can stay behind the plate, he could be one of the top fantasy catchers in the league.
Harry Ford is one of my favorite players in the minor leagues. Not only do I love the athleticism and feel to hit, but if he can retain catcher eligibility, he could be a significant fantasy contributor. The reports have been fair on his defensive prowess, with the industry seemingly split on whether he can stay behind the plate. Offensively, there are few questions. He’s a plus runner with enough bat speed to project 15+ home runs and is walking nearly as much as he’s striking out. The ceiling is a Top 10 catcher in the game. We’ll deal with a change of position if it happens.
3. Colt Emerson (SS, #22)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B or Top 15 3B
- Tools Summary: High-floor player who should hit with 15+ home run pop.
Colt Emerson was the Mariners’ first of three first-round picks. He’s only 18, but scouts love his swing and ability to make contact. He played exceptionally well in his professional debut, slashing 374/.496/.550, walking nearly as much as he struck out (15% BB-Rat and a 17.5% K-Rate).
There is solid bat speed with above-average speed, but the speed should regress to average as he fills out. I would put his ceiling as a 15-15 type of player, maybe more pop as he matures with a chance to hit .280+ with a .360+ OBP. While he’s a fine defender, a move to 2B or 3B is likely.
4. Gabriel Gonzalez (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Tools Summary: Showing an ability to make contact with a solid approach. There is plus, if not double-plus, power lurking in the bat.
There’s not enough chatter in Dynasty League circles about Gabriel Gonzalez, in my opinion. The home run and stolen base totals don’t jump out, but he has excellent bat speed with the size to project, plus, if not double-plus, future power. He is making excellent contact with an approach that should allow him to hit .260+ at the highest level. He’s already filling out, so long-term, stolen bases will not be a large part of the profile. But 30 home runs could.
5. Ryan Bliss (2B/SS)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Tools Summary: After a challenging season in 2022, he has made a nice bounce back by showing better contact.
After a challenging 2022 season where Ryan Bliss hit .214, he bounced back nicely last season after a significant correction in his BABIP – .268 to .350. It’s not all been about luck, as he’s dropped his strikeout rate meaningfully to 19.4%. After his promotion and subsequent trade to Seattle, the surface stats didn’t look as great, but he still controlled the strike zone, showing tremendous speed and power. In total, he hit 21 home runs and stole 52 bases.
He needs to add loft to his swing as he’s beating a lot of balls into the ground (50%+ GB rate), which might put him into a utility role, but for now, I’m putting his ceiling as a Top 15 2B.
6. Jonatan Clase (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Tools Summary: His carrying tool is his speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts.
Jonatan Clase’s carrying tool is his speed. Not only is he a plus runner, but he’s also aggressive on the basepaths. This isn’t always the case, but when it is, these are the players that can steal 30+ bases yearly. There’s concern about how much contact he’ll make, which could push him to the bottom of the lineup and reduce his stolen base opportunities. He should be owned in all leagues with a chance to see Seattle as soon as next season. We know what Esteury Ruiz did. Consider this: Clase stole 79 bases across High and Double-A.
7. Michael Arroyo (SS/2B)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B/3B
- Tools Summary: He’s showing an excellent feel to hit with an advanced approach and enough bat speed to project future above-average power.
Michael Arroyo started the season in the Complex League, but after hitting everything thrown close to the plate, he was moved to Low-A after four games, where he kept hitting. While not always a great barometer, he hit .314 in the DSL in 2022, walking nearly as much as he’s striking out.
He has plenty of bat speed to project future power and should have average speed early in his career. As he fills out, the speed will degrade; with it, the stolen bases will decrease and a probable move to second or third. I think the bat will play well at either position. The ceiling is a Top 15 2B/3B with a chance to hit .280/.350 with 15+ home runs and a handful of stolen bases.
8. Tyler Locklear (1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 1B if the power continues to develop.
- Tools Summary: He missed some time with a broken hand but showed power and a little speed when healthy.
Tyler Locklear got off to a solid start to the 2023 season when he broke a bone in his hand in June and missed two months of games. When he was healthy, he showed solid all-around skills, making hard contact and controlling the strike zone well. He doesn’t have a true carrying tool, but the upside still could be a full-time regular. If he could add more loft to his swing, he could unlock 25 home run pop. If it’s only 20 home run pop, it could also come with 10 stolen bases, making him a Top 15 first baseman.
9. Emerson Hancock (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP
- Tools Summary: It’s a starter arsenal, but the fastball has backed up, and he now looks like a number three/four starter.
Emerson Hancock’s fastball has backed up over the past couple of years, and it’s now averaging 92.5 MPH. It does have a high spin rate and, because of that, is getting a high whiff rate. But my dream of him pitching at the top of the rotation is fading.
His location has improved; in three starts in Seattle at the end of the season, he held his own. However, I think the arsenal points more to a back-of-the-rotation starter, maybe a little more as he improves his secondary pitches.
10. Lazaro Montes (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF
- Tools Summary: 70-grade power, and if he can keep his strikeout in check, he could be a legitimate 30+ home run bat.
Lazaro Montes has massive raw power that should allow him to pop 30+ home runs annually. He’s walking at a high rate (18.2%), and while he’s striking more than you would like, it’s not nearly what I feared. I would say I’m presently surprised with his 25% K-Rate. If he can keep that up as he moves through the system, he could be a significant fantasy asset, particularly in OBP Leagues. However, the swing is long, and he is prone to expand the strike zone with breaking pitches. But the Mariners have done an excellent job with him so far, and given his age, there’s still a ton of time left for his development. I’ve put his ceiling as a Top 60 OF.
You must be logged in to post a comment.