The Mariners Farm System: The Mariners’ farm system is defined by explosive tools at the top, a mix of polished bats and athletic profiles in the middle, and a handful of high‑risk investments that require patience and monitoring.
Summary
The Mariners’ system is headlined by Colt Emerson, Felnin Celesten, and Harry Ford, three players who combine polish with impact tools. Celesten’s twitchy athleticism and switch-hitting upside give him star potential at shortstop, while Emerson’s advanced hit tool and plate discipline make him a cornerstone infielder in the making. Ford, already a high-floor catcher, blends OBP skills with speed and power, offering everyday fantasy impact. Alongside them, Lazaro Montes brings middle-order masher upside with elite raw power, and Jonny Farmelo adds dynamic leadoff potential thanks to plus speed and bat speed.
Supporting this top group are names like Luke Stevenson and Michael Arroyo, both of whom offer everyday fantasy utility with strong offensive profiles. Stevenson’s patience and plus power could make him a valuable fantasy catcher, while Arroyo’s patient approach and growing pop give him a versatile infield profile.
Kade Anderson leads a strong but thin group of pitchers that also includes Jurrangelo Cijntje and Ryan Sloan. While the pitching depth is down, the Mariners do such a great job with their pitching that there will likely be some pop-up players during the 2026 season.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Target
- Felnin Celesten — Explosive actions, switch‑hitting SS; twitch, bat speed, power/speed star ceiling.
- Colt Emerson — Advanced hit tool, plate discipline, emerging power; cornerstone infielder upside.
- Harry Ford — Athletic catcher, strong OBP, speed/power blend; everyday difference‑maker.
- Lazaro Montes — Massive raw power, plus EVs; middle‑order masher upside.
- Kade Anderson — Advanced command, polished pitch mix, competitive edge; mid‑rotation with strikeout upside.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Jonny Farmelo — Plus speed and bat speed; dynamic leadoff profile if healthy.
- Luke Stevenson — Plus power, patient approach, strong EVs; everyday catcher potential.
- Michael Arroyo — Patient hitter, growing power, versatile infielder; OBP anchor with pop.
- Ryan Sloan — Big frame, fastball/slider combo; durable innings‑eater starter profile.
- Jurrangelo Cijntje — Athletic delivery, unique look; mid‑rotation or swingman potential.
- Nick Becker — Athletic corner bat, raw power; swing refinement could unlock impact.
- Tai Peete — Athletic infielder, bat speed; multi‑positional utility likely without hit gains.
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
To see the reset of the tiers, become a Patreon subscriber at Patreon.com/prospect361.
2026 Player Profiles
1. Colt Emerson (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS/2B
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Advanced hit tool, plate discipline, emerging power; cornerstone infielder upside.
Colt Emerson opened 2025 repeating High‑A with a clear developmental goal: add more power. He arrived stronger and showed progress, though his swing still lacks the leverage needed to elevate the ball consistently. In 90 games at High‑A, Emerson slashed .281/.388/.453 with 11 home runs, earning a long‑overdue promotion to Double‑A, where he finished the season. His advanced strike zone control remained a defining trait, reflected in excellent strikeout‑to‑walk ratios.
Emerson’s profile is built on polish and projection. His bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline give him one of the highest floors in the system, and his ability to consistently post strong on-base percentages makes him a lineup stabilizer. The added strength has helped, but his swing path still needs refinement to unlock more consistent loft. Continued adjustments could push him into the 20-home‑run range, while his athleticism offers modest stolen base contributions. Compared to Cole Young, Emerson represents a more explosive version of the same contact‑and‑discipline archetype, with greater potential impact if the power clicks.
From a fantasy perspective, Emerson is a premium dynasty asset. A projected .280–.300 batting average with an OBP roughly 80 points higher provides elite category stability, and the potential for 20 home runs plus 5–10 steals rounds out a balanced profile. He may not develop into a cornerstone slugger, but his combination of floor and upside makes him one of the safest prospects in the game. Dynasty managers should view him as a high‑probability, everyday contributor with the chance to grow into a top‑50 fantasy bat if his swing adjustments unlock more consistent power.
2. Kade Anderson (LHP, #3)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Advanced command, polished pitch mix, competitive edge; mid‑rotation with strikeout upside.
The Mariners selected Kade Anderson with the third overall pick in the 2025 Draft after two standout years at LSU. At just 20 years old, he was one of the youngest college players taken that high, and his polish stood out immediately. He logged 119 innings in his draft year, showing durability and consistency, and enters pro ball with the kind of track record that suggests he could move quickly. The expectation is that Seattle will start him in High‑A or even Double‑A in 2026, with a chance to reach the Majors by the second half of that season.
On the mound, Anderson brings a balanced four-pitch mix. His fastball sits 92–94 mph and can touch 95, complemented by a plus slider and a workable change-up. He also mixes in a sinker effectively against glove-side hitters, which helps him avoid platoon splits. The most impressive trait is his command — he walked just 2.7 batters per nine innings in his draft year, consistently filling the zone and forcing hitters to earn their way on base. That combination of polish, pitchability, and strike-throwing makes him one of the safer arms in the class.
From a fantasy perspective, Anderson profiles as a high-floor starting pitcher with mid-rotation upside. His strike-throwing ability should translate into solid ratios, and the slider gives him a legitimate bat-missing weapon. While he may not project as a frontline ace due to modest fastball velocity, his durability and balanced arsenal make him a strong dynasty target. Managers should expect steady innings, useful strikeout totals, and the potential for quick advancement, making him a valuable stash in formats that reward proximity and reliability.
3. Felnin Celesten (SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with upside
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Explosive actions, switch‑hitting SS; twitch, bat speed, power/speed star ceiling.
The Mariners signed Felnin Celesten to a record $4 million bonus in January 2023, making him one of the most notable international signings in franchise history. His early career has been slowed more by health than performance, but when on the field he has shown why Seattle invested so heavily. In 2025, he opened in Low‑A and produced a .285/.354/.393 slash line with six home runs and 21 stolen bases before earning a promotion to High‑A in August. He’ll finish the season at age 20, still young for his level and with plenty of developmental runway ahead.
Celesten is a switch‑hitter with an impressive blend of athleticism and projection. He makes consistent contact, controls the strike zone well, and shows strength from both sides of the plate. His defensive skills are advanced for his age, and his overall game lacks glaring weaknesses. The combination of bat speed, plate discipline, and physical tools gives him a chance to grow into a well‑rounded everyday player, with the potential for impact on both sides of the ball if he can stay healthy.
From a fantasy perspective, Celesten offers tantalizing upside. His speed has already translated into stolen bases, and the raw power suggests future 20‑home‑run potential. If the hit tool continues to hold and his on-base skills remain strong, he could develop into a 20‑20 contributor with a solid batting average and OBP. The risk lies in durability, and the need for continued refinement, but the ceiling makes him a worthwhile dynasty stash — a player who could emerge as one of the more dynamic fantasy performers in the Mariners’ system.
4. Harry Ford (C)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 10 Catcher
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Athletic catcher, strong OBP, speed/power blend; everyday difference‑maker.
Harry Ford has quickly become one of the most intriguing players in the Mariners’ system thanks to his blend of athleticism and offensive feel. His defensive future remains a point of debate, with some evaluators believing he can stick behind the plate while others see him shifting to another position. If he retains catcher eligibility, his value skyrockets, as few players at the position can match his athletic profile.
At the plate, Ford shows advanced strike‑zone awareness, posting a 16% walk rate while keeping his chase rate low (16.5% O‑Swing%). He makes league-average contact and pairs it with plus speed, though his running game slowed after his promotion to Triple-A. His power remains modest, with below-average exit velocities and a tendency to put the ball on the ground (46% ground‑ball rate). Even so, his swing has room to grow as he fills out, and the 16 home runs he hit in Triple‑A hint at untapped potential if he can add more leverage.
From a fantasy perspective, Ford’s appeal lies in his versatility and across-the-board contributions. A realistic projection is a .260–.270 hitter with an OBP 80–100 points higher, 15–20 stolen bases, and 10–12 home runs. That profile is especially valuable if he maintains catcher eligibility, where speed and OBP skills are rare commodities. While the power ceiling may be limited, his combination of plate discipline, athleticism, and stolen base upside makes him a unique dynasty asset, particularly in formats that reward OBP and positional scarcity.
5. Lazaro Montes (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF or DH
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Massive raw power, plus EVs; middle‑order masher upside.
Lazaro Montes’ profile is built around potentially 80‑grade raw power, the kind of strength that could translate into 30 or more home runs annually. Physically imposing and still growing, he has already shown the ability to generate elite exit velocities. In Low‑A, he managed a manageable 19% strikeout rate, but once he advanced and faced better pitching, his chase tendencies surfaced, pushing his strikeout rate to 29% in 2025. The raw ingredients are there, but the approach remains a work in progress.
Comparisons to Yordan Alvarez highlight the physical similarities, but the gap in discipline is significant. Alvarez rarely swings at pitches he can’t handle, while Montes is still learning to rein in his aggressiveness. His swing decisions and ability to recognize spin will determine whether his power translates consistently at higher levels. If he can refine his approach, the combination of size, bat speed, and raw strength could make him one of the more dangerous sluggers in the minors.
From a fantasy perspective, Montes is a classic high‑risk, high‑reward asset. The ceiling is enormous — 30 to even 40 home runs with elite exit velocities — but the strikeout rate could cap his batting average and on‑base percentage. Dynasty managers should treat him as an upside play, recognizing that if the hit tool stabilizes, he has All-Star potential. If not, he could settle into a volatile power-only profile better suited for deeper formats. The upside makes him worth stashing, but patience will be required as the approach develops.
6. Ryan Sloan (RHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Big frame, fastball/slider combo; durable innings-eater starter profile.
The Mariners went well over slot to secure Ryan Sloan in the second round of the 2025 Draft, signing him for $3 million — a figure more in line with late first-round money. At 6-foot-4, Sloan brings the physicality teams covet in frontline arms, and his draft-year performance justified the investment. He split time between Low‑A and High‑A, making 21 starts while being carefully managed, never exceeding four innings in an outing to protect his arm. Even in limited stints, he impressed with consistency and command, walking just 15 batters all season, or 1.7 per nine innings.
Sloan’s arsenal is headlined by a fastball that sits 97–98 mph and can touch triple digits, giving him the kind of velocity that immediately stands out. His best secondary offering is a changeup with late tumble, thrown unusually hard at 91 mph, which keeps hitters off balance. The slider remains a developmental pitch, but the foundation of fastball/changeup already gives him a strong two-pitch base. What separates him from many young flamethrowers is his ability to repeat his delivery and fill the zone, a skill that could accelerate his path to the upper minors.
From a fantasy perspective, Sloan is a high-ceiling arm with frontline potential if health cooperates. The strike‑throwing ability suggests strong ratios, and the fastball/changeup combo could generate strikeouts in bunches. The risk, as with many pitchers who touch triple digits, lies in durability — the Mariners’ cautious workload management reflects that concern. Dynasty managers should treat him as a premium upside stash, recognizing that if the slider develops and the health holds, he has the tools to emerge as a rotation anchor within a few years.
7. Jurrangelo Cijntje (BHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP with upside or a Closer
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Athletic delivery, unique look; mid‑rotation or swingman potential.
Jurrangelo Cijntje was the Mariners’ first‑round pick in 2024, taken 15th overall, and immediately drew attention as a rare switch pitcher. In college, he was effective from both sides, but as a professional, the split has been stark. Right-handed, he has been dominant, holding batters to a .175 average, while left-handed, he has been far more hittable, allowing a .292 average and a .500 slugging percentage. The novelty remains, but the results suggest his future will be defined more by his right-handed arsenal than by true ambidextrous usage.
From the right side, Cijntje shows the stuff of a potential rotation anchor. His fastball sits 95–96 mph and can touch 98, paired with a double-plus slider and an effective change-up. He repeats his delivery well and throws strikes, but his 5-foot-11 frame raises questions about durability and susceptibility to home runs. While his athleticism and command help mitigate those concerns, evaluators will continue to wonder whether he can handle a starter’s workload until he proves otherwise. The left-handed version of his repertoire simply doesn’t grade out as Major League quality, making it more of a situational wrinkle than a true developmental path.
From a fantasy perspective, Cijntje should be viewed primarily as a starting pitcher, as his right-handed arsenal is strong enough to project mid-rotation value with strikeout upside. His fastball/slider combination gives him the tools to miss bats, and his command supports a starter’s profile despite questions about durability. That said, his 5-foot-11 frame and the novelty of his switch-pitching background leave open the possibility of a bullpen role down the line. If that transition ever happens, his velocity could spike into triple digits, and his ability to change arms situationally would make him a unique high-leverage weapon. Dynasty managers should lean toward starter outcomes but keep the bullpen path in mind as a secondary scenario.
8. Michael Arroyo (2B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Patient hitter, growing power, versatile infielder; OBP anchor with pop.
Michael Arroyo began 2025 in High‑A, mirroring the Mariners’ cautious approach from the prior season when he repeated Low‑A. After a sluggish April, he found his rhythm in May and June, flashing the power Seattle envisioned when they signed him in 2022. His progress earned him a promotion to Double‑A, where he finished the year with a combined .262/.401/.433 slash line, 17 home runs, and 12 stolen bases. The performance underscored his growth as a hitter and hinted at more power to come as he continues to mature physically.
Arroyo’s offensive profile is built on patience and emerging strength. His ability to control the strike zone and post high on-base percentages gives him a strong foundation. At the same time, his developing power suggests he could grow into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. As he fills out, the stolen bases may taper off, but the bat speed and improving leverage point toward a future as a power-hitting infielder. Defensively, second base looks like his most natural fit, where his offensive upside could stand out relative to positional peers.
From a fantasy perspective, Arroyo projects as a valuable contributor with balanced skills. A realistic outcome is a .260–.270 hitter with an OBP north of .340, high single-digit steals, and 15–20 home run potential. That combination makes him particularly appealing in OBP formats, where his patience enhances his floor. While he may not offer elite speed, the developing power and strong plate discipline position him as a steady fantasy asset, capable of providing above-average production at a traditionally thin position.
9. Jonny Farmelo (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Plus speed and bat speed; dynamic leadoff profile if healthy.
Jonny Farmelo entered the Mariners’ system as their first-round compensation pick in 2023, awarded after Julio Rodríguez won AL Rookie of the Year in 2022. A toolsy outfielder with excellent speed and significant bat speed, he has long been projected as a player with both top-of-the-order skills and future power potential. Unfortunately, his development has been slowed by injuries. A knee injury in June 2024 cost him the rest of that season and the start of 2025, and after a strong return in High‑A — including a .575 slugging percentage with four home runs in his first seven games — he suffered a rib stress reaction in late May, sidelining him for another 2.5 months. He returned in August, but the missed time has been substantial.
When healthy, Farmelo shows the kind of athleticism and offensive traits that can impact a lineup. His speed is a plus tool, and his bat speed suggests future power growth as he matures physically. The challenge is simply staying on the field long enough to refine his approach and gain reps against advanced pitching. The ceiling remains high, but durability questions add risk to his projection, making his path less certain than many of his peers.
From a fantasy perspective, Farmelo offers enticing upside if the health cooperates. His speed could translate into 30-plus stolen bases, and paired with modest power in the 10–12 home run range, he profiles as a dynamic leadoff hitter with a solid batting average. The risk is obvious — repeated injuries have already cost him critical development time — but the payoff is significant. Dynasty managers should treat him as a high-variance asset: if he stays healthy, he could become a category-impacting speed threat, but the volatility makes him better suited for deeper formats or as a speculative upside stash.
10. Luke Stevenson (C, #35)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 20 Catcher
- Last Updated: 01/09/2026
- Tools Summary: Plus power, patient approach, strong EVs; everyday catcher potential.
Luke Stevenson entered the Mariners’ system as their first-round Competitive Compensation pick in 2025, taken 35th overall after a strong draft year at the University of North Carolina. He showcased both patience and power in college, posting a .250/.414/.552 slash line with 19 home runs, and carried that approach into pro ball. Assigned to Everett in the Northwest League, he slashed .280/.460/.400 in 100 plate appearances, demonstrating his ability to control the strike zone and get on base, even if the home run output was limited in his debut.
Stevenson’s offensive game is built around plus power generated by excellent bat speed and impressive exit velocities. In college, he reached a max exit velocity of 113.5 mph with a 90th percentile mark of 108, numbers that project comfortably into 20-plus home run territory. His patient approach has always led to high walk rates, and with adjustments to flatten his swing path, he could settle into a profile of a .260/.360/.400+ hitter. While he may not reach the offensive heights of Cal Raleigh, his combination of power and plate discipline should be enough to secure a full-time role at the highest level.
From a fantasy perspective, Stevenson is an appealing catching prospect with legitimate power upside and enough defensive skill to remain behind the plate. His patience enhances his floor in OBP formats, and the power potential makes him a candidate to provide steady production in two-catcher leagues. Dynasty managers should view him as a mid-tier catching prospect worth targeting in the third round of first-year player drafts, with the potential to grow into a reliable source of power and on-base skills at a scarce position.
