Chicago White Sox Farm System: The system is loaded with raw tools and athletic upside, but plagued by control issues, swing decisions, and developmental volatility that make it more of a long-term gamble than a short-term pipeline.
Summary
The White Sox system is a volatile mix of high-octane tools, developmental risk, and organizational uncertainty. Braden Montgomery headlines the group with 70-grade raw power and athleticism, though swing-and-miss concerns and a recent ankle injury temper expectations. Noah Schultz and Tanner McDougal offer frontline starter traits, but both face command hurdles—Schultz with platoon splits and a missing changeup, McDougal with a history of wildness that only recently showed signs of improvement. Hagen Smith and Wikelman Gonzalez bring swing-and-miss stuff, but each has serious control issues and injury flags that cloud their long-term roles.
The position player group is anchored by contact-oriented bats like Jacob Gonzalez and William Bergolla, who offer strong hit tools but minimal power. Caleb Bonemer and Jeral Perez bring more fantasy upside with power-speed potential, though both need to refine their approach to reach everyday status. Billy Carlson and Jaden Fauske are athletic, projection-heavy prep picks with bat speed and defensive value, while Bryan Ramos remains blocked despite a well-rounded profile that could support low-end corner production.
Overall, the White Sox system is rich in athleticism and raw tools, but light on polish and proximity. Dynasty managers will need to be patient—and selective—when investing here.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Braden Montgomery – 70-grade raw power with athleticism and OBP upside. If contact holds, he’s a 25/10 threat with impact potential.
- Tanner McDougal – Electric curveball and triple-digit fastball. If control gains stick, he’s a Top 40 SP with fantasy juice.
- Noah Schultz – Elite slider and physicality. If the changeup and control improve, he’s a frontline arm with strikeout upside.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Hagen Smith – Swing-and-miss arsenal with effortful delivery and elbow concerns. Top 45 SP ceiling if health cooperates.
- Caleb Bonemer – Plus raw power and speed. If the approach tightens, he’s a 20/10 bat with everyday upside.
- Jeral Perez – Added loft and hard contact. Trending toward 18–25 HR utility bat with a shot at full-time role.
- Bryan Ramos – Solid hit tool and defensive value. Blocked for now, but could be a low-end CI with 12–15 HR and OBP lift.
- Wikelman Gonzalez – Swing-and-miss stuff with closer upside. If control improves, he’s a high-leverage weapon.
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
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2026 Player Profiles
1. Braden Montgomery (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: 70-grade raw power with athleticism and OBP upside. If contact holds, he’s a 25/10 threat with impact potential.
Braden Montgomery’s carrying tool is his 70-grade raw power, backed by elite bat speed and physicality. He struck out just 20% of the time in his draft year—a manageable rate for a power bat—but that number climbed to 29% in a 22-game Double-A sample, an early sign that advanced pitching may challenge his contact skills. If he can keep the strikeouts in the low-20s, the power will play.
Despite breaking his ankle during his draft year, Montgomery swiped 14 bases in 21 attempts—a testament to his athleticism. He’s unlikely to be a 20-steal threat, but a realistic floor of 10–12 bags annually adds value.
Fantasy managers should treat Montgomery as a power/speed threat with OBP upside. The profile is fantasy-friendly: 20–25 home runs, double-digit steals, and an OBP that could sit 80 points above his batting average thanks to improving walk rates. The batting average may be pressured by swing-and-miss, but if the contact stabilizes, Montgomery has the tools to make an impact at the highest level.
2. Noah Schultz (LHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Wide variance (Top-of-the-rotation to bullpen)
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Elite slider and physicality. If the changeup and control improve, he’s a frontline arm with strikeout upside.
Noah Schultz was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2022, and three years later, he remains a work in progress. His fastball touches 97 mph and sits 93–95, but the low three-quarters arm slot flattens the pitch, costing him plane and deception. Without consistent command, it gets hit hard—especially by right-handed batters, who posted a .320 average and .463 SLG against him in 2025.
The slider, however, is electric. It flashes 80-grade spin and is nearly unhittable for lefties, often inducing defensive swings or outright flinches. Right-handers struggle too, but the lack of a viable changeup has become a problem at the upper levels. Schultz walked 5.8 per nine between Double and Triple-A, and the control issues have clouded his long-term outlook.
Fantasy managers should treat Schultz as a high-variance arm with elite raw ingredients. For two years, he looked like a future frontline starter. Now, without a better third pitch and improved command, he’s trending toward a No. 4 starter or high-leverage reliever. Tall pitchers often take longer to develop—if you’re invested, buckle up. This one may take time to sort out.
3. Billy Carlson (SS, #10)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2029 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Bat-to-ball skills and defensive value. Power projection remains limited, but everyday role possible.
Billy Carlson was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2025, signing for near-slot value. A two-way standout in high school, he posted back-to-back sub-1.00 ERAs before shifting full-time to shortstop due to a lack of a viable breaking ball. His fastball touched the mid-90s, and that arm strength now helps him project as an above-average defender.
Offensively, Carlson makes consistent contact with excellent bat-to-ball skills. The swing is compact and efficient, but his tall, slender frame with narrow shoulders suggests limited power projection. He’s likely to settle into a contact-oriented profile with modest extra-base output. He’s an average runner, and while speed won’t be a carrying tool, it won’t hold him back either.
Fantasy managers should treat Carlson as a high-contact middle infielder with deeper-league relevance. If the bat translates and the glove holds, he could develop into a steady everyday contributor with real-world value—even if the fantasy ceiling is modest.
4. Tanner McDougal (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 40 SP if he can find average control
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Electric curveball and triple-digit fastball. If control gains stick, he’s a Top 40 SP with fantasy juice.
Tanner McDougal might have the best pure stuff in the system—a bold claim given the arms the White Sox have assembled. His fastball sits 95–97 mph and touches 100, but the real weapon is his curveball: huge spin, sharp break, and true knee-buckling action. He also mixes in a slider and a changeup, the latter flashing average and rounding out a starter’s arsenal.
Physically, McDougal checks every box. He’s listed at 6-foot-5 and 185 pounds (likely heavier now), and the frame remains ideal for durability and projection.
The challenge has always been control. He walked 5.7 per nine in 2024 and 5.0 per nine to open 2025 in High-A. But after a promotion to Double-A, something clicked—he walked just 2.8 per nine across 15 starts. If that trend holds, the ceiling of a Top 40 starter starts to look realistic.
Fantasy managers should treat McDougal as a high-upside arm with breakout potential. He’s not a finished product, and he already has Tommy John surgery on the ledger. But the late-season control gains are encouraging, and the stuff is undeniable. Now’s the time to invest—6-foot-5 arms that touch triple digits don’t come around often.
5. Hagen Smith (LHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP with health risk
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Swing-and-miss arsenal with effortful delivery and elbow concerns. Top 45 SP ceiling if health cooperates.
Hagen Smith entered pro ball with expectations of a fast track, and his arsenal delivered—just 42 hits allowed over 75.2 innings. But his control regressed in 2025, walking 20 batters in just 25.2 innings before hitting the IL. Initially rumored to be for delivery tweaks, later reports confirmed elbow discomfort—a troubling development given his prior Tommy John surgery in high school.
Upon returning, Smith showed flashes of improvement but still walked 6.7 per nine. The delivery remains high-effort with a pronounced cross-body motion. While Chris Sale has thrived with a similar look, most don’t. The mechanics add deception but also amplify injury risk.
Fantasy managers should treat Smith as a volatile upside play. He still has Top 45 starter potential, but the margin for error is narrowing. The stuff is good enough to dream on, but health and control will determine whether he reaches that ceiling—or stalls out as a bullpen fallback.
6. Caleb Bonemer (3B/SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2028 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Plus raw power and speed. If the approach tightens, he’s a 20/10 bat with everyday upside.
Caleb Bonemer was the White Sox’s first pick in the second round of the 2024 draft. He spent his draft year at the Complex before opening 2025 in Low-A and earning a promotion to High-A in September.
His carrying tool is plus raw power, which currently shows up more as doubles than home runs. As he fills out and adds leverage, many of those doubles should clear the fence. He’s also an above-average runner and could be a stolen-base threat early in his career, adding sneaky fantasy value.
The question is whether he’ll hit enough. His swing can get long, and there’s some chase in his approach—especially against breaking balls. But when he connects, it’s loud. So far, he looks like a full-time regular, and if the contact skills sharpen, Bonemer could grow into a power-speed contributor with everyday fantasy relevance.
7. Jeral Perez (2B/SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Added loft and hard contact. Trending toward 18–25 HR utility bat with a shot at full-time role.
Jeral Perez broke out in the ACL in 2023, leading the league in home runs and flashing early power potential. He started strong again in 2024 before fading late, then landed with the White Sox in a three-team trade that sent Michael Kopech to the Dodgers. In 2025, Perez rebounded with a solid campaign, finishing especially strong.
He’s added significant leverage to his swing, converting doubles into home runs without increasing his strikeout rate—a promising sign. However, his walk rate dipped, and there’s more chase in his approach than in prior seasons. That’s something to monitor as he climbs the ladder.
Perez is an average runner, but as he fills out, speed may fade from the profile. Last year’s projection of 12–15 home runs now looks light—he could realistically reach 18–25 with a .240–.260 batting average.
Fantasy managers should treat Perez as a power-first infielder with everyday upside. He’s on track to be at least a utility bat at the highest level, with a chance to grow into a full-time starter if the approach holds.
8. Jaden Fauske (OF, #44)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2028 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Bat speed and athleticism. If loft is added, he’s a power-speed sleeper in FYPDs.
Jaden Fauske was the White Sox’s first pick in the second round of the 2025 MLB Draft, signing for well over slot value to bypass his commitment to LSU. A two-way prep player, he caught and played outfield in high school, but the White Sox announced him as an outfielder on draft day.
Fauske is athletic with a chance to grow into plus power, and there’s enough speed to project double-digit steals annually. His swing is short to the ball with plenty of bat speed, and video suggests the White Sox will likely add loft to unlock more over-the-fence damage.
Fantasy managers should treat Fauske as a power-speed foundation piece with Top 100 upside. He’s a strong third-round target in FYPDs, and if the hit tool holds, he could grow into an everyday outfielder with impact potential.
9. Jairo Iriarte (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or High-Leveraged Reliever.
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: Fastball with arm-side life, but control and platoon issues have pushed him to the bullpen.
Jairo Iriarte was acquired in the Dylan Cease trade, and while there was always skepticism about his ability to start, 2025 confirmed those concerns. The organization officially transitioned him to the bullpen, but his control has worsened—walking over six batters per nine innings in Triple-A.
His fastball averages 94 mph and can reach 96, with heavy arm-side run that can jam same-side hitters. However, it’s far less effective against glove-side batters, and without a reliable changeup, he struggles to turn over lineups. That lack of a third pitch, combined with erratic command, has made the bullpen move inevitable.
Fantasy managers should treat Iriarte as a volatile relief arm with limited upside. He still has the raw stuff to contribute in short bursts, but unless the control sharpens and he finds a way to neutralize lefties, he’s unlikely to emerge as a fantasy-relevant option.
10. Jacob Gonzalez (SS)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 10/21/2025
- Tools Summary: High-contact profile with minimal impact. Could hit .280 with modest power and speed.
Jacob Gonzalez was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2023, and while he can hit, the fantasy upside looks limited. In 2025, across Double and Triple-A, he posted a strong 16% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate—clear signs of plate discipline and bat control. But the exit velocities are below average, and his swing is designed for contact, not damage.
He’s an average runner, and when you add it all up, the profile projects as a .280 hitter with 8–10 home runs and 5–10 stolen bases. A swing adjustment could unlock a bit more loft and push the power closer to 12–15 homers, but that hasn’t materialized yet.
Fantasy managers should treat Gonzalez as a high-contact middle infielder with deeper-league relevance. Unless the swing evolves, the fantasy ceiling remains modest—but the real-world value could keep him on the field.
