Kansas City Royals Farm System: The Royals system is built around near-ready pitching depth, toolsy athletes, and long-term upside plays, with Carter Jensen as the lone fantasy anchor and a 2026 Double-A wave poised to reshape the top tier.
Summary
The Royals system features a mix of near-ready pitching depth, toolsy athletes, and long-term developmental bets. On the mound, Ben Kudrna and Shane Panzini lead a group of arms that could reach Kansas City by 2026, while David Shields and Drew Beam offer mid-rotation traits with room to grow.
Position players offer more volatility. Carter Jensen remains the top fantasy bat thanks to his advanced approach and catcher eligibility. Josh Hammond and Ramón Ramirez bring raw power, while speedsters like Asbel Gonzalez and Carson Roccaforte offer fantasy utility if the hit tool stabilizes. Gavin Cross has slipped into platoon territory, and international additions like Ramcell Medina and Warren Calcano provide long-tail upside with OBP skills and physical projection.
While the system isn’t surging, it’s layered with opportunity — especially on the pitching side. There’s no surefire star beyond Jensen, but multiple paths to value remain. Dynasty managers should monitor the 2026 Double-A wave closely — it could reshape the system’s top tier and surface several fantasy-relevant names.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Carter Jensen – His power has been inconsistent in 2025, but once he reached the Pacific Coast League, he exploded. There is potential for 15 to 20 home runs along with solid OBP skills.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Kendry Chourio – Command-driven breakout with starter traits and helium. Arsenal and age-relative dominance suggest upside.
- Blake Mitchell – Power-speed tools and athleticism, but a passive approach and contact issues cloud the profile. 2026 is pivotal.
- Ben Kudrna – Near-ready arm with a three-pitch mix and improving changeup. Back-end starter floor, mid-rotation ceiling.
- David Shields – Advanced command and two promising secondaries. Velocity gains could unlock mid-rotation upside.
- Shane Panzini – Breakout 2025 with improved command and a weaponized changeup. Trending toward rotation value.
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
To see the reset of the tiers, become a Patreon subscriber at Patreon.com/prospect361.
2026 Player Profiles
1. Carter Jensen (C)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: His power has been inconsistent in 2025, but once he reached the Pacific Coast League, he exploded. There is potential for 15 to 20 home runs along with solid OBP skills.
After finishing 2024 strong in Double-A, Carter Jensen returned to the level in 2025 before erupting in Triple-A with a .647 SLG and 14 home runs in just 43 games. That surge earned him a September call-up to Kansas City, where he posted a .306/.405/.611 line over 13 games—validating his offensive breakout.
Jensen’s exaggerated fly ball rate from 2024 (56%) normalized to 37% in 2025, improving zone control without sacrificing power. He’s a strong defender with enough athleticism to swipe a few bags, and his bat continues to trend up. While Salvador Perez remains entrenched behind the plate, he’s 35 and unlikely to block Jensen long-term. The situation mirrors the Yadier Molina–Ivan Herrera transition in St. Louis: delayed, but inevitable.
Fantasy managers should treat Jensen as a top-15 catching prospect with everyday upside. Expect 15–20 home runs, a .250 average, and an OBP that runs 80 points higher—making him a viable starter in OBP formats and a long-term asset at a premium position.
2. Blake Mitchell (C)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Power-speed tools and athleticism, but a passive approach and contact issues cloud the profile. 2026 is pivotal.
Blake Mitchell’s athleticism and bat speed hint at future impact, but his development has hit early turbulence. After fracturing his hamate bone in spring training, he missed the first half of the season and returned with diminished power (.320 SLG) and elevated swing-and-miss (32% K rate). While the hamate explains some of the power outage, his overly passive approach (21% BB rate) and longstanding issues reading spin have compounded the problem.
There’s still intrigue: plus speed for a catcher, flashes of raw power, and enough athleticism to dream on. But if he doesn’t stick behind the plate, the offensive bar rises—and right now, he’s not clearing it. 2026 looms as a pivotal year. Mitchell needs to get more aggressive in-zone, rediscover his power-speed combo, and prove he can handle advanced pitching.
Fantasy managers should treat Mitchell as a deep-league stash with athletic upside. If the bat rebounds and he sticks at catcher, there’s a path to relevance. But the margin is thin, and the next 12 months will be telling.
3. Kendry Chourio (RHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Command-driven breakout with starter traits and helium. Arsenal and age-relative dominance suggest upside.
Signed for $247K in January, Kendry Chourio blitzed through three levels in his pro debut, posting a combined 55:5 K:BB over 51.1 innings. His dominance was loud—17 strikeouts and zero walks in three Complex League starts, followed by a seamless transition to Low-A where he maintained more than a strikeout per inning and walked fewer than two per nine.
Chourio’s arsenal is advanced for his age: a mid-90s fastball with life, a curveball with shape, and a changeup he can already land for strikes. But it’s the command that sets him apart. His strike-throwing ability rivals what Eury Pérez showed in the lower minors—rare control paired with real stuff.
Fantasy managers should treat Chourio as a breakout candidate with helium. The ceiling is currently pegged as a No. 3 starter, but that could rise quickly if the arsenal ticks up or the dominance continues against full-season bats. The Royals may have found a fast-track arm in their system.
4. Luinder Avila (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 60 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Big arm with starter traits, but bullpen dominance and shoulder history cloud the role.
Luinder Avila opened 2025 strong in Triple-A before a shoulder impingement derailed his season. Post-injury, the Royals limited his workload and gave him a September audition out of the bullpen—where he looked electric. In short bursts, his fastball touched 99 mph and his curveball played up, flashing swing-and-miss bite.
There’s still starter potential here. Avila has the arm strength and pitch mix to profile as a No. 4, especially if his sinker improves against glove-side hitters. But his bullpen look was dominant, and the fastball-curve combo could make him a late-inning weapon.
Fantasy managers should treat Avila as a role-dependent arm with impact stuff. Whether he sticks in the rotation or shifts to relief, the arsenal plays—and his usage in 2026 will shape his fantasy trajectory.
5. Sean Gamble (OF, #23)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2029 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: 70-grade runner with loft and bat speed. Raw hit tool and older draft age add volatility.
Sean Gamble is a raw but explosive athlete, drafted 23rd overall in 2025. He’s a 70-grade runner with a left-handed swing that generates loft and loud contact—Perfect Game tracked his senior-year average exit velocity at 96 mph. The physical tools are enticing, but the hit tool lags behind. Gamble’s pitch recognition is underdeveloped, and his older draft age (19) adds pressure to move quickly.
There’s real upside here: a potential No. 3 outfielder with power-speed juice. But the risk is substantial. If the hit tool doesn’t progress, Gamble may stall out before reaching Double-A.
Fantasy managers should treat Gamble as a high-upside bet with a wide range of outcomes. The ceiling is enticing, but the volatility is real—making him a boom-or-bust stash in deeper formats.
6. Yandel Ricardo (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2028 Fantasy Ceiling: Corner/Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Athletic switch-hitter with bat speed and emerging power. The hit tool is the swing factor.
Signed for $2.4 million out of Cuba, Yandel Ricardo entered pro ball as one of the top talents in the 2024 international class. His debut was rocky (.213 AVG), but after adding 10–15 pounds of muscle, he rebounded in 2025 with improved power and earned a midseason promotion to Low-A.
Ricardo is a switch-hitter with well above-average speed and emerging contact skills. He showed plate discipline in the Complex League, but became more aggressive in Low-A as pitchers exposed his pitch recognition with better spin. That’s a normal developmental hurdle, and his bat speed suggests future power as he continues to fill out—though his speed will likely regress as his frame matures.
Fantasy managers should treat Ricardo as a long-term developmental play with upside. If the contact skills stabilize, he could grow into a 15–20 HR bat with early-career speed and middle infield eligibility. The hit tool remains the swing factor.
7. Josh Hammond (3B/RHP, #28)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2028-29 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Two-way tools and explosive power. Needs contact gains to stick as a hitter; fallback mound path remains.
Selected 28th overall as the Royals’ MVP comp pick for Bobby Witt Jr., Josh Hammond brings two-way intrigue and explosive tools. He averaged 97 mph on the mound and posted a 103 mph average exit velocity at the plate—raw power and arm strength that jump off the page. Though the Royals announced him as a third baseman, the pitching background remains relevant, especially if the bat stalls.
Offensively, Hammond has 70-grade raw power and a left-handed swing built for damage, but it’s all-out effort right now. He’ll need to dial back the swing to improve contact rates. If the hit tool stabilizes, he could grow into a power-hitting third baseman or shift to right field, where his arm would be a weapon.
Fantasy managers should treat Hammond as a high-variance prospect with multi-path upside. Whether he sticks at third, moves to the outfield, or revisits the mound, the tools are loud enough to support long-term value in deeper formats.
8. David Shields (LHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Advanced command and two promising secondaries. Velocity gains could unlock mid-rotation upside.
David Shields spent his age-18 season carving up hitters with advanced command and a polished delivery. His fastball sits 90–92 mph, which might trigger “command-and-control lefty” alarms, but he walked just 1.8 per nine and showed the poise of a much older arm. There’s room for velocity growth as he matures physically, and his mechanics suggest it could come.
The secondary arsenal is promising: a slider that already flashes above-average and a changeup that could join it with further refinement. Shields is likely headed to High-A in 2026, with a realistic shot at Double-A by season’s end. He profiles as a No. 4 starter, but with his strike-throwing ability and potential for two plus secondaries, there’s room to dream on more.
Fantasy managers should monitor velocity gains and strikeout trends. If the stuff ticks up, Shields could become a sneaky mid-rotation asset with deep-league relevance.
9. Asbel Gonzalez (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Elite speed and zone control. Needs power gains to become more than a speed-only contributor.
Asbel Gonzalez’s standout tool is speed—and it’s game-changing. After swiping 22 bags in 2024, he exploded for 78 steals in 2025, though his 26 caught-stealing mark (mostly in the second half) suggests some over-aggression or fatigue. He controls the zone well (17% K-rate, 11% BB-rate), and while he’s not a slappy hitter, he lacks the physicality to drive the ball with authority—just one career home run to date.
The frame offers hope. At 6-foot-2, Gonzalez has room to add strength, and if modest power emerges, his speed and bat-to-ball skills could make him an impact player. He’s a long-term developmental bet, but one worth stashing in deeper dynasty formats.
Fantasy managers should monitor physical growth and power trends. If the bat adds even 40-grade pop, Gonzalez’s fantasy stock could surge—unlocking a speed-first profile with everyday upside.
10. Gavin Cross (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with platoon risk
- Last Updated: 10/31/2025
- Tools Summary: Platoon splits and approach regression have lowered the ceiling. Speed still plays, but role is uncertain.
After a promising 2024, Gavin Cross regressed in 2025, struggling to control the zone (26% K-rate, 7.6% BB-rate) and showing pronounced platoon splits. Eleven of his 13 home runs came against right-handed pitching, and if that trend persists, he may be headed for a part-time role.
The speed still plays, and there’s enough athleticism to contribute on the bases. But the approach remains a concern, and the power is increasingly situational. Once viewed as a potential impact regular, Cross now profiles more as a platoon bat with limited ceiling.
Fantasy managers should recalibrate expectations. A Top 60 OF outcome is still possible, but the path is narrow and role-dependent—making him a fringe hold in standard formats and a matchup play in deeper leagues.
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