Tampa Bay Rays Farm System: The Rays system focuses on athleticism, versatility, and projection, featuring a deep pool of speed-oriented prospects, emerging arms, and contact-focused hitters who have upside if their power develops.
Summary
The Rays system remains one of the most athletic and toolsy in baseball, with a clear emphasis on speed, defensive versatility, and upside. Players like Theo Gillen, Adrian Santana, and Daniel Pierce headline a group of twitchy middle infielders and center fielders who combine elite speed with advanced zone control and defensive value. While few project for big power, many offer enough physicality to grow into modest pop, and the Rays’ developmental track record suggests they’ll get the most out of these profiles.
On the pitching side, the system is deep and varied. Santiago Suarez and Yoniel Curet offer starter upside with strong stuff and improving command, while arms like T.J. Nichols and Ty Johnson could thrive in swing roles or high-leverage relief. The Rays continue to find value in under-the-radar arms, and their ability to refine secondaries and manage workloads gives them a steady stream of contributors.
Offensively, the system is filled with intriguing bets—some safer than others. Aiden Smith and Brailer Guerrero offer power-speed potential but must improve contact rates. While Xavier Isaac played sparingly in 2025, I still think he hits for power. Brayden Taylor – Ugh!
It’s a system built on projection, athleticism, and patience—one that fantasy managers should monitor closely, especially in deeper formats.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Theo Gillen – Explosive athlete with 20/20 upside and OBP traits; loud tools, high ceiling.
- Xavier Isaac – Middle-of-the-order bat with plus power and high walk rates; proximity adds value.
- Carson Williams – Elite defender with 20+ HR pop; contact risk but everyday SS upside.
- Santiago Suarez – Advanced pitchability, three-pitch mix, No. 3 starter floor with Rays dev backing.
- Brendon Summerhill – Power-speed blend with plate discipline; 20/10 upside and athletic frame.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Aiden Smith – Twitchy athlete with bat speed; raw but ceiling is real.
- Adrian Santana – Elite contact, 40+ steal speed, high-floor SS with sneaky fantasy upside.
- Brailer Guerrero – 70-grade raw power, bat speed intact; needs reps but 30-HR ceiling.
- Daniel Pierce – Big tools, raw approach; needs reps and polish to unlock upside
- Yoniel Curet – Electric stuff, 70-grade slider; starter traits with high-leverage fallback.
- Jadher Areinamo – Bat-to-ball standout with growing power and defensive versatility; quietly impactful.
- Tre’ Morgan – High-contact, plus defender, some speed; needs power bump to stick at 1B.
- T.J. Nichols – Mid-rotation upside if changeup clicks; strong control and slider foundation.
- Brody Hopkins – Deceptive arm slot, swing-and-miss stuff; starter traits with bullpen fallback.
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
To see the reset of the tiers, become a Patreon subscriber at Patreon.com/prospect361.
2026 Player Profiles
1. Theo Gillen (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2028 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Explosive athlete with 20/20 upside and OBP traits; loud tools, high ceiling.
Theo Gillen, the Rays’ first-round pick in 2024 (No. 18 overall), entered pro ball as one of the most athletic high school players in the class. Tampa Bay moved him permanently to center field, where his range and instincts have already made him a standout defender. He’s a 70-grade runner who stole 36 bases in 2025 while being caught just three times, and at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, there’s room for added strength. The five home runs he hit this season could grow into 15–18 annually, giving him a legitimate power-speed foundation.
The hit tool was a concern coming out of the draft, but the Rays shortened his swing and helped him make more consistent contact. He’s unlikely to be a .300 hitter, but his nearly 20% walk rate reflects excellent zone awareness and patience. That said, he’ll need to be more aggressive to convert some of those walks into balls in play, which could help unlock more consistent production. A calf strain and broken finger limited his 2025 reps, but the underlying traits—speed, athleticism, and approach—remain intact.
Fantasy managers should treat Gillen as a high-upside power-speed prospect with OBP skills and defensive value. The swing decisions need balancing, but the athletic traits are loud, and if the contact holds, he could grow into a category contributor across formats. He’s expected to open 2026 in High-A, and while the Rays tend to move prospects slowly, Gillen has the kind of profile that could accelerate if the bat clicks.
2. Carson Williams (SS)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS if he hits enough
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Elite defender with 20+ HR pop; contact risk but everyday SS upside.
Carson Williams is a toolsy shortstop with elite athletic traits, flashing 70-grade speed, 60-grade power, and potentially 70-grade defense. He posted a 20-20 season in the minors (23 HR, 22 SB) and earned a September call-up, where he struggled mightily—slashing .172/.219/.354 with a 42% strikeout rate. The hit tool remains a glaring concern, graded at 40 and possibly generous, but the physicality and defensive value are undeniable.
Despite the volatility, Williams has a path to fantasy relevance. He could hit .220 and still deliver 20 HR and 20 SB, which plays in roto formats if you can offset the batting average elsewhere. His walk rate gives him added value in OBP leagues, and his glove should keep him in the lineup even if the bat lags. The Rays are committed to his development, and the raw tools continue to show up in game action.
Fantasy managers should treat Williams as a high-risk, high-reward asset. The power-speed combo is real, but the contact issues could crater his value if they persist. He’s playable in deeper formats and worth holding in dynasty, but you’ll need to build around the batting average and monitor the strikeout rate closely.
3. Xavier Isaac (1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 1B
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Middle-of-the-order bat with plus power and high walk rates; proximity adds value.
Xavier Isaac never found his footing in 2025. Elbow and wrist issues delayed his start, and the Rays ultimately shut him down in late June due to recurring elbow trouble. He didn’t play the field all year, and there were reports the initial injury occurred in spring training while working in the outfield. It was a frustrating season, but it doesn’t change the core evaluation—Isaac remains one of the most physically imposing bats in the system.
He’s a prototypical three-true-outcomes slugger with 70-grade raw power and elite exit velocities, just a notch below Junior Caminero in terms of pure juice. He’ll strike out plenty and walk often, and that’s baked into the profile. Isaac showed some speed in 2024 after improving his conditioning, but he’s an average runner at best and likely to slow down over time. The bat is the carrying tool, and when healthy, it’s loud.
Fantasy managers should view Isaac as a potential Kyle Schwarber type—30+ home runs, a .240 average, and a .340 OBP feels realistic if the health cooperates. He’s unlikely to offer steals or defensive value, but the power and plate discipline give him a path to impact in roto and OBP formats. If he’s on track physically, there’s a chance he reaches Tampa in 2026 and slots in as a middle-of-the-order masher.
4. Aidan Smith (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Twitchy athlete with bat speed; raw but ceiling is real.
Aiden Smith, acquired by the Rays in the 2024 deadline deal that sent Randy Arozarena to Seattle, is an athletic outfielder with loud tools and fantasy intrigue. In 2025, he hit 14 home runs and stole 41 bases (caught just six times) across 102 games, flashing solid exit velocities and a high-leverage swing that helps convert raw power into game power. The physicality is real, and the speed plays both offensively and defensively.
The swing, however, comes with trade-offs. Smith posted a 31% strikeout rate in 2025, driven by a passive approach—his high first-strike rate and 14% walk rate suggest he’s often behind in counts. The uphill bat path adds to the swing-and-miss risk and puts pressure on his batting average (.229). It’s a classic “thigh bone connected to the hip bone” situation: the swing that generates power also creates contact issues, and the approach needs tightening.
Fantasy managers should treat Smith as a power-speed upside play with volatility baked in. He could be a 20/30 contributor if the contact improves, but the batting average risk is real. In roto formats, he’s a viable stash for stolen bases and pop; in OBP leagues, the walk rate adds value. If the Rays can refine his approach, there’s a path to everyday impact. The foundation is strong—now it’s about conversion.
5. Daniel Pierce (SS, #14)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2029 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Big tools, raw approach; needs reps and polish to unlock upside.
Daniel Pierce, the Rays’ first-round pick in 2025 (No. 14 overall), signed for over $1 million under slot and brought with him a polished, well-rounded skill set. His standout traits are 70-grade speed and advanced strike zone control, with consistent contact and mature plate discipline for his age. Defensively, he’s a strong shortstop with one of the highest probabilities in his draft class to stick at the position long-term.
Pierce’s swing is built for contact rather than impact. While he’s a physical athlete, the power projection is modest—likely topping out around average. Still, the blend of speed, bat-to-ball skills, and defensive value gives him a high floor. He’s the kind of player who could quietly move through the system if the Rays coax even modest power gains over time.
From a fantasy perspective, Pierce isn’t flashy, but he’s a potential glue guy in deeper formats. His OBP skills, speed, and positional value make him relevant in roto and dynasty leagues, especially if he hits near the top of a lineup. The bat will need to prove itself against pro pitching, but the instincts are strong and the foundation is stable.
6. Santiago Suarez (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Advanced pitchability, three-pitch mix, No. 3 starter floor with Rays dev backing.
Santiago Suarez is one of the more quietly exciting arms in the Rays system, combining a strong three-pitch mix with elite control and developmental fit. His fastball sits 95–96 MPH (tops at 97) with high spin, and both his slider and changeup project as above-average offerings, with the slider slightly ahead. Most importantly, he throws strikes—walking just 1.7 batters per nine in 2024 and an even better 1.4 in 2025, showcasing advanced command for his age.
He missed a chunk of the 2025 season with tricep and shoulder tightness but returned in August and finished the year without incident. His final two starts came in Triple-A, where he posted a 4.09 ERA with nine strikeouts and two walks—solid results given the layoff. Despite the late-season bump, the Rays are likely to start him in Double-A in 2026, following their typical conservative path with pitching prospects.
Fantasy managers should treat Suarez as a high-floor, sneaky-upside dynasty stash. The command is elite, the stuff is trending up, and the Rays know how to develop arms like this. If he stays healthy and continues refining his secondaries, there’s a path to mid-rotation value with strikeouts, WHIP stability, and innings volume. He’s a strong hold in deeper formats.
7. Yoniel Curet (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP or Closer
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Electric stuff, 70-grade slider; starter traits with high-leverage fallback.
Yoniel Curet entered 2025 with a clean health record, but a stiff shoulder in Spring Training landed him on the IL for the first time. The Rays eased him back cautiously, limiting him to two-inning stints across his first seven outings. He eventually finished the season in Triple-A, where the control remained inconsistent. Still, the stuff was electric—highlighting why he remains one of the most intriguing arms in the system.
Curet throws both a heavy two-seam fastball and a four-seamer, each averaging 96 MPH and topping out at 97. His slider is a true 70-grade weapon, generating whiffs at a high rate, and his changeup—now used more frequently—has become a viable weapon against lefties when paired with the sinker. The pitch mix is loud, and the arsenal gives him a chance to succeed in multiple roles, even if the command wavers.
Fantasy managers should treat Curet as a high-upside arm with dual-path potential. If the control sharpens, he could be a strikeout-heavy starter with WHIP risk. If not, his stuff would play up in short bursts, giving him legitimate closer upside. He’s a strong dynasty stash with impact traits—just be ready to pivot if the walk rate stalls his rotation path.
8. T.J. Nichols (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP with upside or Closer
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Mid-rotation upside if changeup clicks; strong control and slider foundation.
T.J. Nichols, the Rays’ sixth-round pick in 2023, has quietly emerged as one of the more intriguing arms in the system. He features a fastball that sits 95–97 MPH (tops at 98) and a plus slider that serves as his primary weapon. The fastball lacks ideal backspin and can underperform despite its velocity, but the slider is a legitimate bat-misser. He’s struggled to neutralize left-handed hitters—righties hit just .223/.304/.353 against him, while lefties posted a more damaging .250/.283/.510 line. The changeup flashes but remains inconsistent, and when he misses, it gets hit hard.
Despite the effort in his delivery and the fastball’s limitations, Nichols pounds the zone and walked fewer than a batter per game in 2025. That control gives him a strong foundation, and the slider is nasty enough to play at any level. He finished the year in Double-A and should open 2026 in Triple-A, with a chance to debut if the Rays need innings. The organization has a strong track record with arms like this, and Nichols fits their mold—power, control, and a clear developmental path.
Fantasy managers should view Nichols as a potential mid-rotation starter with strikeout upside and ratio stability. If the changeup improves, he could offer 150+ innings with solid WHIP and K totals. If not, the fallback is a high-leverage bullpen role where the fastball-slider combo could generate whiffs in short bursts. He’s a strong hold in deeper formats and a name to monitor closely as he approaches the upper levels.
9. Brody Hopkins (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or top 50 SP
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Deceptive arm slot, swing-and-miss stuff; starter traits with bullpen fallback.
Brody Hopkins, acquired by the Rays from Seattle after being drafted in the sixth round in 2023, transitioned full-time to the mound after a two-way career at Winthrop. He’s still raw, but the traits are loud: a fastball that sits 94–96 MPH and touches the upper 90s with tailing action, a deceptive lower three-quarters arm slot, and a slider that misses bats consistently. The delivery adds funk and angle, helping the stuff play up.
Hopkins lacks a consistent weapon to neutralize left-handed hitters, and modest platoon splits emerged after his promotion to Double-A. Righties hit just .189/.324/.243 against him, while lefties posted a more damaging .231/.317/.357 line. The bigger concern is control—he walked 4.7 per nine in 2025, a surprising number given his athleticism. His slingy, low-slot delivery can be tough to repeat, and that’s likely contributing to the command issues.
Fantasy managers should treat Hopkins as a high-upside arm with multiple paths to value. If the control sharpens, he could stick as a mid-rotation starter with strikeouts and deception. If not, the fastball-slider combo could thrive in a high-leverage bullpen role. Either way, he’s a future big leaguer with impact traits, and the Rays’ developmental track record makes him a worthy stash in deeper formats.
10. Gary Gill Hill (RHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 12/05/2026
- Tools Summary: Sinker-slider profile with athleticism; back-end starter with growth path.
Gary Gill Hill was the Rays’ “biggest mover” in the system last season, posting a 3.15 ERA across 21 starts and earning a High-A assignment to open 2025. He showed flashes of upside but struggled against left-handed hitters and gave up more home runs than expected—posting a 1.2 HR/9 rate and allowing over a hit per inning. The results were uneven, but the traits remain intriguing.
GGH is primarily a sinker-slider pitcher. His sinker generates plenty of weak contact but misses too often, leading to damage when it’s left up. His slider is his primary out pitch and plays well off his slightly lower three-quarters arm slot, which likely adds cutting action. The changeup is still developing, but the underlying metrics are encouraging, even if platoon splits remain a concern. He’s athletic, repeats his delivery well, and has posted solid walk rates in both 2024 and 2025.
Fantasy managers should treat Gill Hill as a developmental arm with back-end starter potential and room to grow. The command foundation is solid, and if the changeup continues to improve, he could round into a reliable contributor. For now, he’s a deeper-league stash with upside tied to execution—especially against lefties and in keeping the ball in the park. The Rays’ track record with arms makes him a worthwhile monitor.
