While the Astros system is not what it used to be, it’s stronger than I initially thought before digging in. I love Jacob Melton, and assuming he can make enough contact, the tools are extremely loud. 2024 will be a critical year to see if the solid contact he made last season translates. Zach Dezenzo and Luis Baez also have intriguing upside with a chance to be a Top 100 prospect eventually.
The Astros have always been able to find pitching in their organization, and perhaps Spencer Arrighetti is better than I think, but he looks like a reliever. Forrest Whitley is still kicking around, but I haven’t a clue what his ceiling is or even if he’ll make it – what a disappointment.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Jacob Melton
- Biggest Mover: Waner Luciano
- Biggest Disappointment: Pedro Leon
- Emerging Prospect: Roiner Quintana
1. Jacob Melton (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Tools Summary: Toolsy outfielder whose contact improved as the season progressed. If he can shorten up his swing, there could be something there.
Jacob Melton is a toolsy outfielder who was the Astros’ second-round pick in 2022. While there are plenty of exciting tools, his game also has plenty of swing-and-miss. However, the Astros have worked well with players like Melton to shorten their swing, and as the season progressed, he did reduce the strikeouts. He also went 23-46 across High and Double-A.
If he continues to make decent contact, which he did last season (22% across High-A and Double-A in 2023 – 28% K-Rate in 15 games in Double-A), watch out.
2. Zach Dezenzo (2B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Tools Summary: He showed more swing and miss in his game after his promotion to Double-A. The power and speed did translate.
Zach Dezenzo was the Astros’ 12th-round draft pick out of Ohio State in 2022. He had no trouble in the hitter-friendly confines of Asheville in High-A, where he slashed .407/.474/.628 in 31 games. Once he was promoted to Double-A, more swing-and-miss developed. After a natural correction from his nearly .500 BABIP, he hit a pedestrian .246. I like his bat-to-ball skills; consequently, we should see a better hitter in the future. When you combine that with some speed and power, he could develop into a Top 15 second baseman with 15-15 type of production.
3. Luis Baez (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Tools Summary: He has plus bat speed and is expected to grow into a 20+ home run hitter. He’s aggressive at the plate, and the swing can get long. Nevertheless, there is significant upside here.
Luis Baez was the Astros’ top International signee in 2022. He’s a big kid at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds with plus bat speed. He showed that in 2022 by hitting nine home runs and slugging .552.
In 2023, he was even better. He started the year in the Complex League, and after 17 games and a 1.095 OPS, the Astros boldly promoted him to Low-A, where he kept hitting. While he walked more than he struck out, I’m not sure he’s destined to be a perennial .300 hitter. However, he’s showing everyone that it’s big boy power with a feel to hit, and that gives him a future ceiling of a 30+ home run bat with above-average on-base skills. He’s a young player clearly on the rise.
4. Joey Loperfido (2B/OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B or Top 60 OF
- Tools Summary: He has some solid building blocks to be a full-time regular. He doesn’t have star potential but could be a useful Major Leaguer.
Joey Loperfido was a seventh-round pick in 2021 with a lot of 50s on his scouting card but no standout tool. It’s been a couple of years of professional development, and I think we can put a plus grade on his speed with above-average power potential and excellent strike zone judgment. Given his length (6-foot-3), his swing can get long, and he’s prone to strike out more than you like. However, he has the building blocks to be a full-time regular with a chance to hit 10 to 15 home runs, 15+ stolen bases, and hit .260 with 80 points on top of that for OBP. Since he’s limited defensively, he might fit best in left field or first. If he can stay at second, the offensive profile will work fine. If a move to first or left occurs, he might move to a platoon role.
5. Brice Matthews (SS, #28)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS or Top 50 OF with contact risk
- Tools Summary: Speed and power but with concern about how much contact he will make.
Brice Matthews went 20-20 in his draft year at the University of Nebraska and parlayed that effort into a first-round draft pick. The profile resembles the Astros’ second-round pick and now #1 prospect, Jacob Melton.
Matthews is highly athletic with high exit velos and is a 70-runner. In 33 games in Low-A, he stole 16 bases in 19 attempts. He also struck out 40 times and posted a 26.7% K-Rate. I worry that he has a little Sam Hilliard in him, although he’s always walked a lot, and Hilliard barely knows how to spell “Walk.”
He’s an intriguing guy who will light up Statcast. If he can control his strikeouts, he could have significant fantasy impact.
6. Waner Luciano (3B)
- Highest Level: Complex ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B/1B or Top 60 OF
- Tools Summary: 20+ home run pop with a feel to hit.
Waner Luciano had a nice step-up season in 2023, slashing .247/.325/.476 with ten home runs and five stolen bases. Most importantly, he made excellent contact (18.6% K-Rate) while controlling the strike zone well. He’s got a large lower half, and while he has the arm to stay at third, a move to right field or even first base might be in the cards. There might be enough pop in the bat to allow him to hit 20+ home runs. He’s an exciting player that should be monitored in all Dynasty Leagues.
7. Kenedy Corona (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with pressure on the batting average
- Tools Summary: Intriguing power and speed. If he makes enough contact, he could be an impact fantasy contributor.
Kenedy Corona quietly had an excellent 2023 season. He showed power and speed, finishing the season with 22 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He strikes out too much, so there will be pressure on his batting average, but if he can keep his strikeout rate under 25% and continue posting better than league-average walk rates, he’ll be a full-time regular with extremely fantasy-friendly skills. Given how close he is to seeing Houston, he should be rostered in all Dynasty League formats.
8. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: High-Leveraged Reliever
- Tools Summary: Two solid pitches in his fastball and slider, but control and a lack of pitch that can keep left-handed batters at bay could lead to a bullpen role.
Spencer Arrighetti was the Astros’ sixth-round pick in 2021, and despite an inflated ERA, he has an arsenal that one day should work on a Major League team. The arsenal is primarily a fastball-slider, with the fastball sitting 92 to 94 MPH with average spin. His change-up has yet to be developed entirely. There is effort in his delivery, with an unbalanced landing likely the culprit for his inflated walk rate and associated ERA. If you put it together, it’s likely a bullpen arm, but with a chance to be a high-leveraged reliever.
9. Pedro Leon (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Wide range, but likely an extra bat.
- Tools Summary: He still has plus speed and plenty of bat speed to project double-digit home run power, but he strikes out too much, and it’s unlikely that gets resolved.
I last saw Pedro Leon play in 2021 in the Fall League, and he looked afraid to take the bat off his shoulder. He’s got more aggressive in 2023 and has reduced his walk rate, but the strikeout rate didn’t budge and is still pushing 30%. He’s still a double-plus runner with plenty of bat speed to project at least 15+ home runs. However, he’s also 25, and unless he can control the strike zone better, he’s looking more like a fourth outfielder every day.
10. Zach Cole (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with contact risk
- Tools Summary: Speed and power but with concern about how much contact he will make.
Zach Cole was drafted in the tenth round of the 2022 Draft. He’s a toolsy outfielder who showed impressive power and speed potential across Low and High-A, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 35 bases. However, it came with a 31% strikeout rate.
While history has not been kind to players who strike out 30% of the time in the lower minor leagues, there’s a chance that Cole could become a three-true outcome player, given his ability to get on-base (13.5% BB-Rate).
Me personally…I typically don’t roster players like Cole, but I do get the allure and reasons. Sometimes, they turn into Carlos Gomez, but more than likely, they turn into Sam Hillard. Know your parameters.
