The strength in the A’s system is their pitching. If Mason Miller stays healthy, he could become a top-of-the-rotation starter. However, and I will stress, he’s never been able to stay healthy. Joey Estes, Luis Morales, and Joe Boyle are also very interesting, and Boyle and Estes should see time in Oakland next season.
I’m not impressed with their hitters. I did not like Jacob Wilson, their first-round pick last July. He should develop into a fine Major Leaguer, a second-division starter, or a utility player on a Championship team, but with the sixth pick in one of the best drafts in the past decade, you just have to do better. There were plenty of players with more upside that also had high floors.
Denzel Clarke, Maxy Muncy, and Darell Hernaiz will all make it to Oakland over the next few years, but I see modest success. If Clarke can ever hit, watch out.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Mason Miller
- Biggest Mover: Joey Estes
- Biggest Disappointment: Jacob Wilson
1. Mason Miller (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with upside
- Tools Summary: Impressive stuff with solid control. Health is a problem and likely will continue.
It’s challenging evaluating Mason Miller.
According to his statcast data, the ceiling is a top-of-the-rotation starter, maybe an ace. His fastball averaged 98.3 MPH with a high spin rate of 2380. He had a whiff rate on his four-seamer at 21%. The slider is a wipeout pitch with a whiff rate of 47.1%, and his cutter elicits a 20.8% whiff rate. He didn’t throw his change-up much, but the shape looks great, and that too, was a swing-and-miss pitch (42.9% whiff rate). He also can throw strikes; when you put it all together, it’s everything you want in a pitcher.
The problem is he’s never stayed healthy. He started the season on the IL, got healthy, pitched four games in the Majors, and then spent four months on the IL. He did return in September and pitched well. He’s had multiple TJ Surgeries and has had shoulder issues.
So, how do you evaluate him? Dunno. The stuff says he’s a Top 10 prospect in the game with a chance to be an ace. His health history would indicate that he’ll break your heart if you roster him in a fantasy league.
Know your parameters and plan accordingly if you decide to take the plunge.
2. Darell Hernaiz (2B/SS)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Tools Summary: He’s a plus runner with emerging power and enough contact skills to project as a full-time regular.
If you go back and check out my AL Sleeper prospect at the start of the season, Darell Hernaiz is a player I discussed. Initially drafted by the Orioles and moved in the Cole Irvin deal. He’s a plus runner with emerging power and has enough plate awareness to project as a full-time regular. He likes to swing the pole, so he will likely not be a great asset in an OBP league, but there’s 15-15 production lurking in there.
3. Denzel Clarke (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 OF with extreme risk (more likely he plays in Asia).
- Tools Summary: He has impact tools but with huge questions about how much he’ll hit.
Denzel Clarke started the season of the IL with a shoulder strain but had a loud opening night where he parked two home runs. He’s an intriguing athletic player with 80 raw power and 80 speed. If you’re unfamiliar with scouting grades, that’s pretty much off the chart in speed and power potential. The problem is that he’s 6-foot-5, and that length will produce a ton of strikeouts (29.7% K-Rate in 2023). In addition, he has a high chase rate, leading to more evidence that he might not reach his ceiling. Throw in that Oakland loves to draft players like this, and they rarely develop them, and it’s a lottery pick for Dynasty League owners. I do have a share or two in Clarke, as I believe it’s essential to have a few lottery picks on every Dynasty League team with 20+ minor leaguers.
4. Max Muncy (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Tools Summary: Doubles hitter with concerns about how much contact he’ll make.
It was a mixed season for Max Muncy. He started in High-A and continued to demonstrate solid speed and modest pop with too many strikeouts (29.5% K-Rate). Upon his promotion to Double-A, he cut down his strikeout rate, and based on the data, he started hitting the ball more on the ground. While I like the lower strikeout rate, I’m not sure hitting the ball on the ground is the way to go. He’s still very young, and there is plenty of athleticism to suggest 20 stolen bases, but there are outstanding questions on how much he’ll hit. I think the power will be more doubles than home run pop.
5. Jacob Wilson (SS, #6)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Tools Summary: He makes extreme contact with below-average speed and power.
Jacob Wilson’s father, Jack Wilson, played in the big leagues for 12 years, mainly with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Like his father, he’s a plus defender with little power but makes crazy contact. Across his sophomore and junior seasons, he had 492 plate appearances and struck out 12 times. That’s a 1 followed by a 2 – 12. There doesn’t appear to be much speed, as he stole eight bases over those same 492 plate appearances. In his professional debut, the draft report played out. He posted a 10% strikeout rate with one home and some doubles power. He did steal four bases. Could he be Luis Arraez 2.0? Sure, but he could also be Nick Madrigal.
Far be it for me to tell a Major League team how to run their draft, but with a deep draft and your minor league system as poor as it is, you go extremely safe – I don’t get it. I’m sure what they are thinking is that at 6-foot-3 and with tweaks to his swing, he can hit for power. Combine that with this plus defensive ability, and you have a first-round talent. Ok???
It’s a pass for me in the first round of Supplemental Drafts. If he drops to the back half of the second round, I might entertain a selection. In the third round, I would be more interested.
6. Luis Morales (RHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 starter or Closer with extreme risk
- Tools Summary: He has a big fastball and has a resume in pitching at a high level in Cuba.
Luis Morales is a Cuban Émigré that the A’s signed for a robust $3 million in the 2023 International window. At 20, he’s considerably older than most players in the class but has the big fastball (can scrape triple-digits) and pitched at a high level in Cuba before defecting. While money talks and the reports on Morales are solid, I am gun-shy. The A’s have struggled to turn high-upside talent into legitimate prospects. Until they do, I will wait to see what he can do once he gets stateside before considering adding him to a Dynasty League.
7. Joey Estes (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP with upside
- Tools Summary: Strike thrower with a solid arsenal
Joey Estes was part of the return when the A’s sent Matt Olson to the Braves in 2022. He quietly had a terrific season and received a September call-up as a reward.
He’s a pitch-data guy who doesn’t have the big fastball (93.1 MPH), but the pitch has great spin, and in his limited big-league debut, he posted a 25% whiff rate. His change-up is his best secondary pitch, and his slider also will miss bats. Most importantly, he throws strikes. I don’t see him as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he could be a solid number-four starter, maybe a bit more, playing half his games in Oakland.
8. Joe Boyle (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer
- Tools Summary: Two 70-grade pitches in his fastball and slider and even a decent change-up, but he also has 20-grade control.
Joe Boyle is an intriguing prospect. He was drafted in the fifth round of the abbreviated 2020 Draft and was a reliever at Notre Dame. The Reds moved him to the starting rotation to try to make him a starter and get more innings as he went through the development process.
He’s physically large at 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds with a fastball that can hit triple-digits. He combines that with a wipe-out slider. The problem, as you might have surmised, is that he can’t throw strikes. He couldn’t throw strikes in college either, but it’s gotten worse in professional ball, as he averages 6.2 walks per nine.
None of the data I just shared has deterred the A’s. They traded for him at the deadline last July and quickly brought him to the Majors. In three starts, he looked great. He pitched to a 1.69 ERA and only walked five in 16 innings. His fastball averaged 97.8 MPH with big whiff rates, and his slider was doing its things.
He’s likely a reliever, but as we saw in his limited time in the Majors, the ceiling could go significantly up with improved control – and in a hurry. He’s someone to monitor and maybe even take in a Draft and Hold format.
9. Ryan Lasko (OF, #41)
- Highest Level: Complex ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Tools Summary: A high-floor player with a feel to hit and some speed and power.
Ryan Lasko was the A’s third-round pick last July after a solid three-year career at Rutgers. He showed power and speed in his Draft year with more walks than strikeouts. However, in his 10-game professional debut, he didn’t play particularly well in the Complex League, hitting .154. Despite the poor showing in the ACL, I think he’ll play more like he did in college. I’m projecting him as a high-floor player with a chance to be a 12-20 type of player who should be able to move quickly through the minor leagues with his ability to control the strike zone. That’s not a star, but could develop into a Steven Kwan type of asset.
10. Royber Salinas (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer
- Tools Summary: Elite fastball-slider combination could make him a dominating future closer.
Royber Salinas got off to a fast start in 2022, striking out nearly 20 per nine. He pitched for the Braves then, but once he was promoted to High-A after five games, control became a more significant factor, and the 1.52 ERA ballooned to 4.11. Now part of the A’s (traded in the Sean Murphy deal), he’s looking more like a reliever than a starter.
He’s got a big fastball that can touch the upper 90s and a wipe-out slider. There’s significant effort in the delivery, and when you combine that with his lack of feel for a change-up, his future points to a rule in the bullpen. Now, it could be a Closer because his fastball and slider both have a chance to be elite.
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