The Diamondbacks had an uneven minor league season. Several of their high-end prospects underperformed, and some of their underrated players exceeded expectations. Jordan Lawlar disappointed the team as he spent most of the season on the IL. I thought he would have spent at least half the year in Arizona. While Jackson Holliday struggled to establish himself in the Major Leagues, his draft mate, Druw Jones, is struggling in Low-A. Tommy Troy had a solid season but spent a lot of time on the IL.
Yilber Diaz blew up this season and got a chance to pitch in the Major Leagues, and he did not look lost. Gino Groover also spent a lot of time on the IL but looked great when he returned. Finally, Adrian Del Castillo was a hot pickup for a couple of weeks, hitting .300 with four home runs.
I’m a fan of the Diamondbacks’ continued efforts to create an excellent talent funnel for their Major League team. According to the GM handbook, that’s how it’s supposed to work.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Jordan Lawlar
- Biggest Mover: Gavin Conticello
- Biggest Disappointment: Druw Jones
- Emerging Prospect: Belfi Rivera
1. Jordan Lawlar (SS)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: He spent most of the season on the IL with a thumb and hamstring injury. I still believe the upside is a 15-20 type of player.
It was a lost season for Jordan Lawlar, as he spent most of it on the Injured list. He started the season on the IL, recovering from thumb surgery. After playing in a handful of games, he injured his hamstring and reinjured the same hamstring after trying to return. Somehow, he managed to play the last ten games of the season in Triple-A and looked good, hitting .323 with a home run.
Losing an entire development season is not ideal, making it even harder to evaluate him. I still think he will be a well above-average player in MLB, if not a star. He has plenty of bat speed to suggest 15+ home run pop and plenty of speed to steal 20+ stolen bases. He’s always shown an ability to control the strike zone after an adjustment to each level.
He’s likely been forgotten in leagues, so it might be a good idea to try to pry him away from an owner.
2. Tommy Troy (3B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: He started the season late and didn’t play particularly well once he was healthy. He expanded the strike zone and struck out more than I had anticipated.
Tommy Troy was the Diamondbacks’ first-round pick in 2023. He started the season back in High-A, but then he missed nearly two months with a hamstring strain. He came back in mid-June.
Troy is athletic and has plenty of bat speed, but at 5 feet 10 inches, I expect him to have average power in the future. In other words, he will have plenty of doubles and 10 to 15 home runs. His contact quality and low BABIP support that position. He had a high ground ball rate (47%), and I would like him to add some leverage to get the ball in the air more.
Troy is an above-average runner, so stolen bases should be part of the profile going forward.
When he was drafted, I expected a plus-hit tool with above-average contact and walk rates. However, that did not play out in 2024. He struck out (22% K-rate) and expanded the strike zone more than I thought coming into the season. While I will not downgrade him too much, it has been noted.
3. Jansel Luis (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: Athletic with a feel for hitting and excellent bat speed. He needs time to develop.
After impressive performances in the DSL in 2022 and the Complex League in 2023, Jansel Luis has not been able to duplicate the results in his first taste of Low-A. He looked overwhelmed at times, and given that he played the entire season at 19, that’s to be expected.
He’s an aggressive hitter but makes solid contact with whippy bat action. That should eventually translate into hard contact with a chance for above-average contact. He’s athletic and an above-average runner who should be able to steal low double-digit bases throughout his career. His upside is likely a middle infielder, but I could see him exceeding that, as he does remind me of a young Maikel Garcia. He just needs time to develop.
4. Slade Caldwell (OF, #29)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with fourth outfielder risk
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: A diminutive outfielder who controls the strike zone well with plus speed.
Slade Caldwell reminds me of Corbin Carroll, who the Diamondbacks took as the 16th overall pick in the 2019 draft. He’s a diminutive outfielder (5-foot-7) with double-plus speed and a great understanding of the strike zone. As with Carroll, there are questions about how much power he will develop. There is plenty of bat speed, as there is with Carroll, but his lack of physicality will likely limit his upside. He’s the perfect guy to grab at the top of the second round in an FYPD.
5. Yilber Diaz (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP or Closer
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a terrific fastball-slider combination, but his control has been sporadic.
Yilber Diaz combines a high-octane four-seamer (95.9 MPH average, T 98) with a nasty slider to produce some of the best strikeout totals in the minor leagues. He can’t consistently repeat his delivery, but his control has improved meaningfully from 2023. The Diamondbacks have cleaned up his delivery, but work is still left. He also doesn’t have a change-up or splitter, but he’s been fine against LHB. He’s using his knucklecurve as his primary tool against lefties.
He did get four starts and three relief appearances in Arizona this season and pitched well, posting a 3.81 ERA.
Long-term, he could be a mid-rotation starter if he throws more strikes and platoon splits don’t become a problem. If not, a fallback position as a high-leveraged reliever could be in the cards.
6. Druw Jones (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: Talented and athletic, but concerns about his approach and contact skills remain.
Druw Jones’s early struggles in his career are well known. While many of his challenges can be attributed to his injuries, most fantasy managers are on pure “freak out” alert. While I get it, here’s what we know:
His athleticism and bat speed still appear intact, but his ability to make contact and hit the ball in the air remains a concern. There’s significant chase in his swing, and he seems tentative about swinging at pitches in the zone. Throw in a 57% ground ball rate, and it’s not a good combination.
He shows stretches of figuring things out but has yet to turn the corner. His strikeout rate was 28% in Low-A, and if it weren’t for a .402 BABIP, things would look much worse.
Final thought…the upside is still extremely high, but let’s face it, it’s not been good. If it all comes together, he has All-Star potential. However, I remain cautious until he makes better contact and starts hitting the ball with authority and in the air. I’m giving it one more year.
7. Gino Groover (3B/1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B or Top 15 1B
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: Offensive-oriented player who should be able to hit for power.
Gino Groover was the D-Backs’ second-round pick in 2023 and signed for his slotted amount. He’s an offensive-oriented player who should be able to hit for power and can steal the odd base early in his career.
Unfortunately, he broke his wrist in the fourth game of the season and missed three months of games.
The ceiling is a Top 15 3B, but the Diamondbacks have played him a lot at first base. I don’t know if this is because of his broken wrist, as he’s got a plus arm, so it seems reasonable for him to stay at third base or move to a corner outfield slot.
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (OF, #31)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s a high-floor player with a feel to hit and 15-15 type of upside.
Corbin Carroll’s winning the 2023 Rookie of the Year award earned the Diamondbacks an extra pick in the first round. They selected outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt from the University of Kentucky.
Waldschmidt had a terrific Draft season at the University of Kentucky, slashing .335/.465/.613 with 14 home runs and 24 stolen bases. He also walked nearly as much as he struck out. There is above-average bat speed, so I don’t expect a ton of power, but he should develop average to above-average power as a professional (12 to 18 home runs). What he should be able to do is hit, and when you combine that with his above-average speed, he projects as a 15-15 type player with a .280 batting average.
9. Cristopher Torin (SS/2B)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: He controls the strike zone extremely well with modest power and speed potential.
Christopher Torin is a hit-first player who makes excellent contact and walked nearly as much as he struck out in Low-A in 2024. At 5-foot-10, he doesn’t have the physicality to project a ton of power, and his average exit velocities support that. He is a solid runner and should be able to steal 10 to 15 bases annually.
While the tools are not very fantasy-friendly, he should be able to post a high batting average and OBP while scoring a ton of runs. The tools are loud enough for him to be a full-time regular, likely at second base. I will put his ceiling as a middle infielder, and he will have a chance to be a bit more if he can find more power.
10. Cristian Mena (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP
- Last Updated: 12/13/2024
- Tools Summary: His stuff looks promising, but he needs to throw more strikes to have a chance for success.
Cristian Mena had a fine season in Triple-A, pitching to a 4.61 ERA. He even got a spot start for the Diamondbacks in July, but it didn’t go well, and he was sent back to Triple-A.
The stuff looks solid with a fastball that averages 95.3 MPH (T 97) with tremendous spin (2444 RPM). It did get destroyed in his lone outing in Arizona. He also throws a slider, change-up, and sweeper, and they all look like they could be at least average pitches, with the sweeper looking like the pitch that could break out. Holding him back is his lack of control. He’s never posted a sub-four walk-per-nine rate at any level. If he can get to average control, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter, but until he shows he can, I’ve put his ceiling as a number four ceiling.
He did miss the second half of the season with a forearm strain.
You must be logged in to post a comment.