It was bound to happen. The Orioles’ outstanding minor league system has taken a hit. Granted, much of the depth is now playing in the Major Leagues. As the team has improved, they are picking in the back of the first round of late instead of the top. Plus, they haven’t developed the pipeline from Latin America that the Dodgers, Brewers, and Padres have.
Of course, one of the best prospects in the game is Sam Basallo, a catcher that the Orioles signed out of the DR in 2021 for a $1.3 million bonus. So, that one worked out quite well. He turned 20 in August, and like many of the young Orioles before him, he will be pushing for an MLB assignment before he’s legally able to drink. Coby Mayo still has minor-league eligibility, and while he didn’t hit in his MLB debut, there is big-boy power in the bat. Enrique Bradfield and Dylan Beavers are underrated from my viewpoint and could provide some help in Baltimore next season or in 2026.
As it has been in the Mike Elias regime, the pitching is not as strong as their hitters. Their goal will be to trade some of their positional depth when they need pitching at the MLB Level. Hopefully, they will do a better job than they did at the 2024 season deadline.
While the system is down from recent norms, nobody should sing the blues for the Orioles, as there is plenty of talent.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Sam Basallo
- Biggest Mover: Frederick Bencosme
- Biggest Disappointment: Jackson Holliday (I couldn’t resist)
- Emerging Prospect: Felix Amparo
1. Sam Basallo (C/1B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 C/1B
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: An athletic catcher/first baseman with a feel to hit and potential future plus power.
Sam Basallo is a big, strong kid with plenty of bat speed to project future plus power. He is also athletic enough to steal some bases early in his career. He spent most of the season in Double-A and played well, slashing .289/.355/.465 with 16 home runs. Considering that he was the youngest player in the Eastern League, that’s doubly impressive.
Defensively, despite being 6-foot-3, he’s athletic enough to be a solid-average catcher, but the Orioles might move him to first or even right field so they can take advantage of his plus arm.
It’s all there for Basallo to be an impact Major Leaguer with 25+ home run pop who can hit. Where he plays is when there are open questions, but the talent is there.
2. Coby Mayo (3B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B/1B
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He is a power-hitting corner infielder who should hit .250 to .260 with 80 points more for his OBP.
Coby Mayo played meaningful games down the stretch for the Orioles but was overwhelmed and only hit .098. This could give the casual observer the impression that he’s all hype, but a 30-home run bat lurks.
Mayo has excellent bat speed and ranked in the upper quartile of all hitters in his limited time in the Major Leagues. He didn’t hit, so his exit velocities were not good, but in the minors, he hit the ball hard and far, hitting 22 home runs and posting a .562 SLG in 89 games. He will expand the strike zone and only makes average in-zone contact, so expecting some pressure on his batting average is reasonable.
He should compete for a role out of Spring Training in 2025.
3. Enrique Bradfield (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He makes excellent contact with 80-grade speed and exceptional defense. He doesn’t have much over-the-fence power.
Enrique Bradfield has been as advertised. He makes excellent contact and can fly and run down anything hit in the same zip code in the outfield. He also doesn’t have any power. I should correct that. He strikes the ball well, but there will not be much, if any, over-the-fence power. He’ll hit plenty of doubles, turning well-struck singles into doubles. Will this be enough to be a full-time regular? In most situations, I would say no. However, the Orioles knew what they were getting when they drafted him in the first round. He’ll be a more dynamic version of Steven Kwan. Just don’t count on anything more than a few home runs annually.
4. Dylan Beavers (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s developing into a solid hitter with plus speed and enough bat speed to project 12 to 15 home runs.
In a stacked Orioles system, forgetting about Dylan Beavers is easy. He was the Oriole’s second-round pick in 2022 and has already made it to Triple-A. He tweaked his swing to get shorter to the ball, and it’s paying off for him as he’s reduced his whiff and strikeout rates. He has solid bat speed, but I don’t see a power hitter. Instead, I see more of a .425 SLG player with 12 to 15 home runs. He is a plus runner with a chance to steal 20+ bases annually. If you add it up, he’s a full-time regular with an opportunity to be a number three outfielder for fantasy managers.
5. Chayce McDermott (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP or High-Leveraged Reliever
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He has swing-and-miss stuff with below-average control. That puts his ceiling as a number four starter or a high-leveraged reliever.
The Astros initially drafted Chayce McDermott in the fourth round of the 2021 draft. He was traded to the Orioles as part of the Trey Mancini trade in 2022. He took a significant step forward in 2023 and carried that forward all the way to Baltimore in 2024.
The stuff is solid, with an improved change-up that eliminated the platoon splits he showed early in his career. The fastball (94 MPH average) doesn’t have great ride through the zone, but the pitch plays up, as all of his do, with the vast extension he gets. He’s never been a strike thrower and will likely always limit his ceiling, which could eventually lead him to a bullpen role.
In summary, it’s swing-and-miss stuff with below-average control. That puts his ceiling as a number four starter or a high-leveraged reliever.
6. Vance Honeycutt (OF, #22)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s athletic with a 20-20 power-speed upside. There is a ton of swing and miss in his game, both in-zone and a high chase rate.
The Orioles are finding it harder to pick at the back of the first round than the front. Then again, they did get Gunnar Henderson with the first pick in the second round.
In 2024, they drafted Vance Honeycutt, an athletic outfielder from East Carolina with speed, power, and excellent defense in center field. He hit 26 home runs in his draft year and added 28 stolen bases. He also struck out 28% of the time, so he was available at pick #22. The hope is that the Orioles can develop him into a Brenton Doyle type of player, but the fear is that he will become Sam Hillard.
He played 13 games in his professional debut, hitting .177 and striking out nearly 50% of the time (27 K’s in 56 PA).
Even with all the hair on this one, Honeycutt is worth a gamble in the second round of an FYPD.
7. Luis De Leon (RHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP with risk or Closer
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a plus fastball-slider with an improving change-up. I don’t love the delivery, which might move him to the bullpen.
Luis De Leon started the season in Low-A and shoved it. He posted a 2.25 ERA (2.08 FIP), striking out 13 per nine while keeping his walks in check (2.3 BB/9). He continued to pitch well in his promotion to High-A but didn’t show the pinpoint control he had in Low-A (6.3 BB/9).
It’s current stuff with a fastball that will touch 97 MPH (sitting 93 to 96). It’s a two-seamer, so he gets a ton of movement and plenty of ground balls. His slider is his best secondary pitch and his primary swing-and-miss pitch. His change-up has improved, but it still has a way to go. His splits are not too bad, but that might change as he gets to Double-A.
The delivery has a longer arm swing than you would like. While he threw many strikes in Low-A, once the weather warmed and his fastball increased in velocity, his arm swing became a limiting factor in throwing strikes. It’s a critical element as it’s the difference between starting and relieving. At this point, I’m split on it. However, as we know, most pitchers wind up in the bullpen.
8. Tavian Josenberger (2B/OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He controls the strike zone extremely well with plus speed and a bit of power.
Tavian Josenberger was the Orioles’ third-round pick in 2023 and had a solid season in 2024.
He started the season in High-A, hitting nine home runs and stealing 45 bases of 51 attempts. He also controlled the strike zone extremely well (16.3% K-rate and 14% BB rate). He didn’t impact the ball as hard as I would like, and therefore, he might be more of a doubles-hitter than a home run hitter (8 to 10 annually). The speed was a pleasant surprise and might be an outlier. In college, he posted 11 to 13 stolen bases annually. I think a more reasonable stolen base total would be 20 bases annually. However, combining that with some power and his feel to hit, he’s an intriguing fantasy target.
9. Frederick Bencosme (SS/2B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He can hit with above-average speed. He needs to get stronger, as his exit velocities point more to doubles-power than over-the-fence power.
Frederick Bencosme was a $10,000 signee by the Orioles in late 2020. He’s a hit-over-power prospect with solid speed. I was hoping he would have added power, and he still might, but the exit velocities are not great. He does hit the ball in the air, so it’s not a leverage problem.
He is athletic and has played well on the field, both shortstop and second base. But I don’t know if there is enough juice to make him a full-time regular—definitely not for the Orioles.
10. Michael Forret (RHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: High-Leveraged Reliever or Top 60 SP
- Last Updated: 11/26/2024
- Tools Summary: He has improved his delivery and velocity. If he can develop a change-up, he could be a starter. If not, he could develop into a high-leveraged reliever.
Michael Forret was drafted in the 14th round of the 2023 Draft as a 19-year-old JuCo pitcher (he turned 20 in April). The Orioles worked with him to improve his delivery, and he responded by throwing more strikes and increasing his velocity a grade. His fastball is now sitting 92 to 95 (T 96). He has a plus slider but is still trying to find a change-up.
He’s likely a bullpen arm, but if he can find a change-up, he could develop into a number four starter. Regardless of his role, it looks like another win for the Orioles, as he’s on the path to an MLB career.
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