After an encouraging 2023 season, the Cubs missed the playoffs in 2024. PCA and Jordan Wicks played significant roles in Chicago this season, and the good news is that there is plenty of talent in the upper levels of the minor leagues for 2025.
Matt Shaw should take over third base next season, with Moises Ballesteros seeing time behind the plate or at DH. Both are nearly ready. Kevin Alcantara continues to have the highest ceiling of anyone in the system, but there are contact concerns that will likely cause him to struggle to establish himself. Owen Caissie should also see time, but as with Alcantara, there are contact concerns.
It’s a solid system with strength at the top and some modest depth.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Matt Shaw
- Biggest Mover: Moises Ballesteros
- Biggest Disappointment: Matt Mervis
- Emerging Prospect: Fernando Cruz
1. Matt Shaw (3B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B or 2B
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He has solid all-around tools with 15-15 type of upside, maybe more as the power develops.
Matt Shaw somehow fell to the fourteenth player off the board in the 2023 Draft, and the Cubs were the beneficiaries. He does many things well, with above-average power and speed, while controlling the strike zone well. He’s moved off shortstop and is now playing third. However, I believe second base is the best fit for him. This will enhance his fantasy appeal, as there is 15-15 type of upside with potentially a little more power to come.
If you’re looking for a comp, he reminds me a lot of Matt McLain.
2. Moises Ballesteros (C/1B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher or DH
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s a natural hitter with excellent exit velocities that point to 20 home run pop.
Moises Ballesteros started the 2024 season in Double-A and had little trouble. In 56 games, he slashed .299/.372/.495 with nine home runs. He was promoted to Triple-A in mid-June. I would have expected his production to drop after his promotion, but it stayed very consistent. He did strike out a little more (15% to 21%), but he played the entire season as a 20-year-old. He has such excellent natural bat-to-ball skills that his strikeout rate should improve. His bat-to-ball skills can be a double-edged sword as he expands the strike zone. His chase rate is 36%. That could limit his OBP early in his MLB career, but in the long term, he has the skills to be a .300 hitter and the power to hit 20 home runs annually. There is no speed.
He does not have a great body at 5-foot-7 and 195 pounds (he’s more than that). I saw him in Myrtle Beach in 2023, and he is pretty athletic, but I don’t know if he will stay behind the plate. Could he play a corner outfield spot or first base? Maybe. I think, ultimately, he’s a DH, and that might limit his opportunities. However, I think the bat carries him, even if he’s a DH.
3. Cade Horton (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He has three plus pitches with the athleticism to throw consistent strikes. He did miss the last four months of the season with a shoulder injury.
The Cubs took much heat when they selected Cade Horton in the first round (pick #7) of the 2022 Draft. Coming off TJS, he had questions about his arsenal. Those questions have been answered, as Cade Horton has become one of the game’s best pitching prospects.
He has three legit pitches in his fastball, slider, and change-up. The fastball averages 94.5 MPH (T 96) with excellent spin (2350) and solid whiff rates. His slider is a real weapon with an excellent horizontal break. The change-up has improved the most and could develop into a third-plus pitch. He had pinpoint control and Double-A, but once Triple-A proved a bit tougher. He’s athletic (two-player in college), so I think there is a strong case that he’ll have plus control.
If you’re keeping count, that’s three plus pitches and control. That’s what aces are made of. He’s not there yet, but that is the upside.
The elephant in the room is that he only made nine starts because of a shoulder injury. Shoulder issues have derailed many pitcher’s careers. Hopefully, Horton will come back healthy in 2025. If not, I will have to reassess my ceiling.
4. Kevin Alcantara (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He has elite tools, but there will be pressure on his batting average.
Kevin Alcantara has some of the best tools in the minor leagues. He has an elite bat speed that should translate into future home run power, and he can really run. The question, and it’s the same question we have with O’Neil Cruz, is whether he will hit enough. At 6-foot-6, there will be strikeouts. He’s never posted a 30% strikeout rate at any level. As he’s gotten to the upper minors, he’s become more aggressive at the plate, which will push his OBP down.
He could be a monster fantasy contributor with 30+ home run pop and 20 stolen bases. However, he did not show that level of production in Double or Triple-A, as he’s been unable to adjust to the better pitching. The upside is still high, but the floor and the realistic ceiling are falling.
5. Owen Caissie (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with contact risk
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He has 70-grade raw power but with plenty of strikeouts.
The Cubs continue to be aggressive with Owen Caissie, starting him in Triple-A to begin the 2024 season. He continues to show significant power, although his over-the-fence power is down slightly. I’m not too worried about that, as his exit velocities continue to be some of the best in the minor leagues. He is still striking out too much, as his chase rate has not improved. He’s still young, so the hope is that he will improve over time. I’m not convinced.
There are 30 home runs in the bat, perhaps more. But it will come with a 30% strikeout rate and likely a .230 batting average. He’s always walked a lot, so he still should produce a decent OBP. He might fall into that Kyle Schwarber profile as the strikeout and walk rates are similar to the raw power.
6. Jefferson Rojas (SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 20 SS with risk
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He continues to show a promising hit tool and plenty of athleticism.
The Cubs signed Jefferson Rojas in 2022 for a robust $1,000,000. He’s athletic with plenty of bat speed and has impressed evaluators with his ability to make contact despite being one of the youngest players in the Sally League. He is aggressive at the plate, walking under league average (7.5% BB-Rate). He also needs to get stronger, and likely will, as he fills out. When he does, power should arrive.
He’s an intriguing middle infielder option in the lower levels of the minor leagues that fantasy managers should closely monitor.
7. James Triantos (2B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s an excellent hitter with emerging power and above-average speed.
James Triantos can flat-out hit. He makes excellent contact and makes great swing decisions. He rarely expands the strike zone with high in-zone contact. He’s more of a doubles-hitter but has gotten stronger and could hit 12 to 15 home runs at the highest level. He’s also a well above-average runner and has stolen 22 of 25 bases this season.
Defensively, he’s not great. The Cubs have primarily played him at second base, and he’s average there. He has also played some center field, but the routes and arm are below average. The defense could be a limiting factor for getting playing time, but he’s such a good hitter that I think he’s a full-time regular with some solid fantasy impact.
8. Cam Smith (3B, #14)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B/1B
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He has above-average power and can control the strike zone.
Cam Smith is a draft-eligible sophomore, and after a solid season at Florida State, he elected to enter the draft. He slashed .402/.497/.677 with 16 home runs. He also walked nearly as much as he struck out (14.6 K-Rate, 12.9 BB-Rate). His swing path is direct to the ball, and there is enough bat speed to project 20+ home runs. He’ll need the power as he’s likely destined for first base as a professional.
He played well in his first taste of professional ball. In 32 games across Low, High, and Double-A, he slashed .313/.396/.609 with seven home runs. He should return to Double-A for the 2025 season.
9. Fernando Cruz (SS)
- Highest Level: DSL ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s a great athlete with plenty of bat speed to project future power.
Fernando Cruz is the cousin of Starlin Castro and signed for the Cubs in January for $4 million. He’s athletic and a 70-runner with enough bat speed to project future power. He’s also shown excellent footwork at shortstop and projects to stay there long-term.
It will come down to how much he hits, and most people who have seen him play believe he will. It’s also dicey to roster a kid who just turned 17, but the upside is pretty substantial.
10. Alexander Canario (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with contact risk
- Last Updated: 10/04/2024
- Tools Summary: He hits the ball extremely hard but with a ton of swing and miss in his bat.
Alexander Canario’s brief time in the Major Leagues this season got my attention. According to the new bat speed statistic, he placed fourth in the league between Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge. Yep, it’s crazy bat speed. However, another player with the same bat speed metric is Jo Adell, and the similarities don’t end there. Both struggle to make contact and expand the strike zone. Therein lies the problem with Canario. Will he hit enough to get to his 25+ home run pop? The data would suggest it’s unlikely, but he’s still just 24, and that type of bat speed does not grow on trees.
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