The White Sox had a historically bad season in 2024, and while their minor league system has improved, it’s filled with many up-and-down and complementary players. In other words, they have a long way to go before they will be competitive.
As with all systems, there are some potentially elite prospects. If Noah Schultz can stay healthy, he has a chance to be special. It’s potentially number one stuff. Their number one overall pick last July, Hagen Smith, also has the arsenal to pitch at the top of the rotation. After that, there are question marks. Many like Colson Montgomery, and while I think he’ll be a nice player, I don’t see a star, particularly from a fantasy standpoint. Jarel Perez is also enticing but has not performed since April.
Again, for me, it’s a “meh” system.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Noah Schultz
- Biggest Mover: Jarel Perez
- Biggest Disappointment: Colson Montgomery
- Emerging Prospect: Eduardo Herrera
1. Noah Schultz (LHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s tall and lanky with a big fastball and emerging secondary pitches. The delivery is a lower three-quarter with effort.
Noah Schultz was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2022, and between being on the IL multiple times, he’s developing into one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
Schultz has big stuff, including a fastball that will scrape 97 and a nasty slider, his primary out pitch. The change-up still needs work, but right-handed batters only hit .196 against him. The delivery is what sets Schultz apart. He has a lower three-quarters arm slot, reminiscent of Chris Sale and Randy Johnson, that left-handed batters have little chance. Given his height at 6-foot-9 and his delivery, his control is remarkable. He just doesn’t walk anyone. In High-A, he walked 2.3 per nine in seven starts; in Double-A, he has yet to walk anyone in three starts.
Potentially, the only thing standing in Schultz’s way from becoming a dominating force at the highest level is how much time he’s spent on the IL since being drafted in 2022. But, from a talent standpoint, this is what aces look like.
2. Hagen Smith (LHP, #5)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with health risk
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He has an extreme cross-body delivery and a plus arsenal. He could develop into a number two starter if he can throw enough strikes.
Hagen Smith is the best lefty in the draft, with a solid three-pitch mix. His fastball sits 94 to 95 MPH (T 97) with a double-plus slider and solid change-up that neutralizes right-handed batters. His extreme cross-body delivery starts on the first base side, and LHB must think it’s coming to their ears. Consequently, he will destroy the lower levels of the minor leagues.
He should move quickly and has a solid chance to remain a starter, with a ceiling of a top-30 starter. He pitched 7.2 innings in three games at the end of the season.
The most significant caveat is that he already has TJS on the books, having the surgery completed in high school. Since they have a shelf life of 7 to 10 years, it adds a level of risk that fantasy managers need to consider before making him a first-round pick in a FYPD.
3. Colson Montgomery (SS)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder or Top 15 2B/3B
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He had a down season in Triple-A with more strikeouts than he showed in the lower levels of the minor leagues. He might not have been ready for an entire season of Triple-A.
Colson Montgomery was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2021. The White Sox have pushed him hard and had him begin the 2024 season in Triple-A despite only playing 54 gamers in High-A and 51 games in Double-A. I’ve seen him play multiple times, and he’s a solid player. He’s a good defender at short, has an excellent feel for the strike zone with enough bat speed to project 15 to 20 home runs, and average to below-average speed. In other words, there is no standout tool.
He struck out more than I would have thought in Triple-A (28.6%) but kept his walk rate up (12%). He was overwhelmed and did not drive the ball very well, which resulted in a batting average of .214 and an SLG of .381. I think he’s a better player than he showed. Long term, I see solid Major Leaguer players, but I don’t think he’ll be a great fantasy player.
4. Edgar Quero (C)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He should be able to hit with solid OBP skills and 12 to 15 home run pop.
In the quest to salvage their 2023 season, the Angels sent Edgar Quero, one of their best prospects, for a two-month rental of Lucas Giolito. The Angels, as we know, missed the playoffs (they didn’t even come close), and Giolito pitched to a 6.89 before they put him on waivers on August 31. Sigh!
The White Sox received a solid talent in Quero. He’s a good defender and switch hitter with average power and enough contact skills to post a .260 to .270 batting average. That’s not an impact player, but he should have a long career as a number one catcher for several years before falling into a backup catcher role later in his career. From a fantasy standpoint, I can see 12 to 15 home runs with a .260 batting average and a .330 OBP.
5. Jairo Iriarte (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 45 starter if his control improves
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He throws hard with a plus change-up. He is still looking for an effective slider. His control has improved but needs improvement to stay in the rotation.
Jairo Iriarte was part of the return for Dylan Cease when the Padres acquired the right-hander before the 2024 season. It’s high-end velocity with a fastball that sits 95 to 97 (T 99). There is not a ton of carry through the zone, so the pitch plays down a bit. Still, when you throw that hard, hitters will struggle with just hitting the velocity. His best secondary pitch is his hard change-up with almost boring action into left-handed batters. He needs to improve his slider, as it’s currently average to below average.
While the White Sox will develop him as a starter, seeing him as a reliever is easier. He doesn’t have great control and needs a better slider. If the slider improves, he might become Luis Gil 2.0. I’m 50-50 on reliever vs. starter at this point.
6. Nick Nastrini (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP, but his control MUST improve.
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: It’s a solid to plus arsenal, but he can’t throw enough strikes. It’s become such an issue that I’m worried about him reaching his ceiling or even close to it.
I had high hopes for Nick Nastrini in 2024 after the White Sox acquired him in a 2023 deal for Lance Lynn. He has good stuff with a fastball that averages 93.7 (T 96) with high spin (2375), a plus slider (40% whiff rate), and a plus change-up (30% whiff rate). It’s swing-and-miss stuff. While he’s never had great control, things fell apart for him in 2024. In 35.2 innings in Chicago, he walked 36. His control was slightly better in Triple-A, but not much (5.5 BB/9).
It’s about repeating your mechanics, and until Nastrini does that, he won’t succeed in the Major Leagues. I think he’s athletic enough to get there, but it will take longer than most fantasy managers’ patience. The upside is a number three starter, but it is an open question if and when he achieves that. A move to the bullpen is not out of the question.
7. Jake Eder (LHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP upside
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a great fastball-slider combination but is getting hurt by right-handed batters.
Jake Eder is now two years removed from TJ Surgery, and his fastball and slider appear to have returned to pre-surgery form. His fastball is sitting 93 to 95 MPH (T 96) with a wipeout slider with high spin. His control is still spotty. He walked 3.75 per nine in Double-A but was wild after his promotion to Triple-A. A walk rate of nearly four per nine will not cut it for a pitcher who wants to pitch at the top of the rotation.
He still doesn’t have a pitch against RHB, as they are slugging 80 points higher than left-handed batters (.432 vs. 344).
When he was first drafted, I thought his ceiling was a number two starter, but the stuff is not quite as good as I thought, and without a pitch to neutralize glove-side batters (RHB), I’ve moved his ceiling down but with upside.
8. Sam Zavala (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: Athletic with plus bat speed, but was overwhelmed in High-A and didn’t hit.
Sam Zavala was traded as part of the deal when the White Sox traded Dylan Cease to the Padres. He has the skills and slow motor that many have attached to Alex Ramirez of the Mets. Both have been lauded for their athleticism and bat speed but sometimes lack the hustle that fans and evaluators like to see. Robinson Cano had that reputation and had a terrific career. I believe Zavala can as well.
Despite hitting below the Mendoza line, Zavala has improved his strikeout rate from 2023. However, he continues to be too passive at the plate, putting him into poor hitting counts. While that approach might have worked in Low-A, pitchers in High-A are better and will attack hitters. The road only gets more challenging as Zavala moves up the chain. It needs to be addressed, or he will not hit his ceiling. He might not even become a big leaguer.
9. Jeral Perez (2B/3B)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He controls the strike zone extremely well and shows current power. There is concern about whether his power will stick as he faces better pitching.
Jeral Perez started to make noise in the ACL in 2023 when he led the league in home runs. He’s gotten off to a strong start in Low-A, walking more than he’s striking out with power. There is some concern about his bat speed and whether he can catch up to velocity as he faces more advanced pitching. He’s a 50-runner, so I would not expect a ton of stolen bases. If it all comes together, Perez could develop into a full-time regular, most likely at second base. At this point, I would project 12 to 15 home run pop with a chance to hit .280+ with 60 to 70 points on top of that for his OBP.
10. Bryan Ramos (3B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B
- Last Updated: 10/22/2024
- Tools Summary: He has better tools than his stat line shows. There is above-average power and speed and solid contact skills.
Ramos made his MLB debut in 2024, just getting under the at-bats to remain rookie-eligible. His time in Triple-A wasn’t very good, as his power disappeared. However, there’s enough bat speed and exit velocity to suggest he will eventually hit for power. While he has an aggressive approach, he’s always made above-average contact. Throw in above-average speed, and I still maintain he’s underrated. I would ignore the lackluster season and invest if he is available in my league.
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