The Reds are absorbing their latest round of promotions, including Noelvi Marte, Edwin Encarnacion-Strand, Rhett Lowder, and Julian Aguiar. I think it’s safe to say that Marte has been a disappointment. First, the 80-game suspension, and then he didn’t hit when he returned. Hopefully, Encarnacion-Strand returns healthy next season.
Because of the promotion, the Reds system takes a noticeable hit in depth. I still like Cam Collier a lot, and he could even challenge for some MLB at-bats next season. Sal Stewart can really hit, but unfortunately, his season ended in mid-July with a wrist injury.
On the pitching side, I’m anxious to see Chase Burns, the number two overall pick last July. Assuming health, he could follow a similar path to what Rhett Lowder did in 2024.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Cam Collier
- Biggest Mover: Julian Aguiar
- Biggest Disappointment: Carlos Jorge
- Emerging Prospect: Adolfo Sanchez
1. Cam Collier (3B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B with upside
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: The power is starting to play, and when you combine that with his feel to hit, there is an impact when playing lurking.
In 2023, Cam Collier hit .356 with six home runs in 111 games. His lack of power was more attributed to his lack of launch than his bat speed and exit velocities. He’s a big guy at 6-foot-3, so I expected power to develop.
We are starting to see that this season. He hit 18 home runs with a solid .421 SLG. There’s likely to be some swing-and-miss in his game, but he still should hit enough to post a .250 to .270 batting average with 80 points on top of that for OBP. The most important thing to remember is that Collier played the entire 2024 as a teenager, so the upside continues to be an impact performer at the highest level.
2. Sal Stewart (3B/2B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B or 2B
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s a high-floor player who can really hit and should develop 20-home run pop.
Sal Stewart’s carrying tool is his ability to control the strike zone and not swing at balls out of the zone. He continues to walk nearly as much as he strikes out and posts well above contact rates. He needs to get stronger, and as he does, I would assume he would add some loft to his swing to produce over-the-fence power. He’s an average runner currently, but I don’t expect him to be a significant threat on the basepaths as he fills out.
He did miss the last two months of the season with a torn tendon in his wrist. Hopefully, he can return healthy in 2025.
If he can stay at third or second base, Stewart is a high-floor player who could develop into a near All-Star performer. If he moves to first, the ceiling might drop because I don’t see 25+ home run future pop.
3. Rhett Lowder (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a nice arsenal with a great change-up, but the delivery needs work.
Rhett Lowder was the Reds’ first-round draft pick in 2023, and given his college workload, he did not pitch last season. 2024 was a different story. He started the season in High-A and finished pitching in the Major Leagues.
It’s good stuff with a fastball that averages 94 MPH (T 96) with excellent ride through the zone (2375 RPM). He also throws a sinker just about as much as he does his four-seamer. He uses it to get weak contact and throws it primarily against arm-side hitters. His best secondary pitch continues to be his change-up, which has excellent fade and great tunneling with his fastball.
The delivery is not ideal; it lacks follow-through and repetition. I’m not sure how he’ll throw enough strikes with the delivery, and if he does, will they be quality strikes? So far, he has. If that continues, he could develop into at least a number three starter, maybe more.
4. Chase Burns (RHP, #2)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a big fastball and an 80-grade slider. The change-up needs work, and his delivery requires effort.
Chase Burns has a plus fastball-slider combination, with his fastball touching 100 and his slider being a serious swing-and-miss pitch. His change-up is a decent third pitch, but it will have to improve for him to have sustainable success as a starter long-term. I don’t love the delivery, as there is effort in it, but he still threw strikes (2.72 BB/9).
There is some bullpen risk here, but overall, it is a big arm with a ceiling of a number three or two starter.
5. Edwin Arroyo (SS)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: He missed the entire season when he had Labrum surgery.
Edwin Arroyo has become noticeably stronger and could develop into a 20-home-run bat if he adds more loft. He’s also a plus runner, with a chance to be a 20-20 performer, at least early in his career. It will come down to how much he hits and whether he’s a full-time regular or a star. He can be aggressive at the plate, but most of that concerns him being young for a level.
It is disappointing that he missed the 2024 season, but he would have been extremely young for Double-A. Hopefully, he will return fully healthy and board the fast train to the Majors after knocking the rust off.
6. Chase Petty (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP with upside.
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: He has the building blocks of a top-of-the-rotation arsenal with solid control. There is effort in his delivery.
Chase Petty was the Twins’ first-round pick in 2021 and was traded to the Reds before the 2022 season. It’s an extensive arsenal with a fastball sitting 96 to 97 MPH (T 99) with a solid ride through the zone. He also throws a sinker with excellent cutting action that gets plenty of ground balls. His best secondary pitch is a hard slider that he throws at 92 MPH. His change-up is below average, and as a result, left-handed batters hit .337 against him. If he can improve his change-up, it’s a starter’s arsenal and a nasty one.
His delivery shows effort, and I’m surprised he throws as many strikes as he does.
Overall, there is a lot to like with Petty. The ceiling is a number three starter. However, the change-up needs improvements, and I’m still not convinced he will throw strikes at the current rate, so there is some reliever risk.
7. Ricardo Cabrera (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 10 2B/3B or Top 15 SS
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: Power and speed potential with a feel to hit.
Ricardo Cabrera was among the most highly touted International players signed in the 2022 window, agreeing to a $2.7 million bonus with the Reds. He came into camp this season noticeably stronger, and the results were encouraging. He slashed .252/.331/.399 in 105 games with 11 home runs and 19 stolen bases.
There’s a ton of upside with Cabrera, including a chance to be an impact infielder. If he stays at shortstop, the ceiling is a top-15 player. However, if he moves to second or third, the ceiling can quickly rise to a top-10 player, if not more.
8. Alfredo Duno (C)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: Plus power potential with solid on-base skills and the ability to stay behind the plate.
The Reds challenged Alfredo Duno, their 18-year-old catcher, to a full-season assignment to Low-A to begin the 2024 season. Duno held his own in 32 games but broke a rib and missed the next three months of the season. He’ll likely start 2025 back in Low-A.
He’s a big kid with high-end exit velocities that should eventually become plenty of in-game power. The swing can get long, so as with most catchers, he might only hit .250 to .260, but it could come with 20+ home run pop. Defensively, he gets high grades from pitchers for being easy to throw. He has a plus arm and should be a weapon against would-be base stealers. He has a long way to go, but there are the building blocks for a Top 15 catcher.
9. Julian Aguiar (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP or Closer
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a great arm, but his strikeout rate is down.
Julian Aguiar was drafted by the Reds in the 12th round in 2021 and received a lot of helium in 2023 when he dominated High-A. He has a solid arsenal: a sinker that sits 94 to 95 MPH with a nice arm-side run, a plus slider that is his primary out-pitch, and a change-up that he doesn’t throw as often since he uses his sinker a lot against left-handed batters. He throws a ton of strikes but will catch too much of the plate and get harder than his stuff would suggest.
Aguiar was unexpectedly promoted to the Major Leagues in August and posted a 6.25 ERA in seven starts. I’m split on whether he will work best as a starter or reliever, but his arm is good enough to warrant rostering in all Dynasty League formats.
10. Sammy Stafura (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 10/08/2024
- Tools Summary: Light-hitting shortstop who controls the strike zone well. He needs to get stronger.
Sammy Stafura was the Reds second-round pick in 2023. He’s a contact-oriented hitter with plus speed who needs to get stronger. The Reds elected to start him back in the Complex League to begin 2024 but quickly promoted him to Low-A after 15 games.
He’s a plus defender at short and is expected to stay there. His ceiling will ultimately depend on how much power he develops. He currently has 30-grade power but has added loft to his swing. As a result, he has shown a bit more power, but he’s also struck out more. I would think he’d be better served if he reduced his leverage and tried to hit for average and get on base so he could take advantage of his speed.
I have his upside as a middle infielder, but he played the entire season as a teenager, so the variability is still high with him.
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