The more I researched the Twins system, the more I liked it. It’s strong at the top with Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Zebby Matthews, and Luke Keaschall with depth. The depth is not just young players, but plenty of back-end starters and relievers can help the Major League club as soon as 2024.
Jenkins has star potential. He could develop into a 30-home-run corner bat who hits for average. Rodrguez has exciting tools and could even develop into a better fantasy player, although I’m not sure how much he will ultimately hit. Zebby throws strikes and has already seen time in Minnesota. Finally, Keaschall can flat-out hit. It might not be the most exciting fantasy ceiling, but I would not be surprised if you told me he hits 12 home runs with 20 stolen bases.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Walker Jenkins
- Biggest Mover: Zebby Matthews
- Biggest Disappointment: Connor Prielipp
- Emerging Prospect: Daiber De Los Santos
1. Walker Jenkins (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 OF
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: Athletic with a lefty swing built for 30+ home run future pop.
I saw Walker Jenkins multiple times in high school. He’s a plus athlete with a beautiful lefty swing that should be built for power. He pulled his hamstring in the first game of the season and missed the following six weeks of the season. Once he got going, he played well and even finished the season in Double-A. I’m not sure he starts 2025 in Double-A, as returning to High-A would be more appropriate. After all, he doesn’t turn 20 until February and had only played 32 games in High-A.
Jenkins is a plus runner, but as he fills out his 6-foot-3 body, I think he will emerge into a power-hitting corner outfielder with a handful of stolen bases. It will come down to how much he hits, and the early returns look encouraging. He’s not expanding the strike zone (low chase rate) and isn’t afraid to work walks.
2. Emmanuel Rodriguez (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: He has 70-grade raw power, with speed early in his career. There will be strikeouts but also a ton of walks.
The profile of Emmanuel Rodriguez is coming into focus. He has some of the best exit velocities in the minor leagues with 30+ future home run pop. At least early in his career, he should be able to steal double-digit stolen bases. He also won’t expand the strike zone and has always piled up walks. I believe he walks too much, which puts him into poor hitting counts, increasing his strikeout rate. It’s a classic three-true outcome player with a 30-15 type of upside who could hit .230 but with 100 to 125 points on top for his OBP.
More concerning is that Rodriguez has had trouble staying on the field. For the second year in a row, he spent considerable time on the IL, this time for a thumb injury. While he finished the season in Triple-A, I believe he’ll spend most, if not the entire 2025 season in the minor leagues.
3. Zebby Matthews (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: Strike thrower whose velocity and secondary pitches have improved in 2024.
Zebby Matthews was the Twins’ eighth-round pick in 2022. He started the season in High-A and ended it pitching for the Twins in meaningful games down the stretch. Pretty impressive!
He pounds the strike zone with a fastball that can touch 97 MPH but doesn’t have huge backspin. He’s also throwing a cutter that looks statistically better, and you could see him substituting the cutter more for the fastball going forward.
His secondary pitches have improved, with his slider taking an excellent step forward in 2024. The change-up also looks better, and both pitches grade out as plus. Most importantly, he throws strikes. If it all comes together, he could be a number three starter, maybe more if his cutter becomes more prominent in his pitch mix.
4. Luke Keaschell (2B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: Excellent contact skills with plus speed and average power.
Luke Keaschall was the Twins’ second-round pick in 2023. He had one of the best contact rates in the draft, and so far in pro ball, that has continued. His swing path is geared toward contact; therefore, I don’t expect him to have more than average future power. He is a plus runner, so he could develop into a 10-20 HR-SB player with high average/OBP skills. That should play very well for fantasy managers.
5. Gabriel Gonzalez (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: He missed considerable time with a lower back strain, but I still see 20, maybe 30 home run pop in his bat.
Gabriel Gonzalez got off to a difficult start to the 2024 season. He struggled to make quality contact and finally went on the IL for a back strain on May 1st. He showed improved contact (15.6% strikeout rate) but beat everything on the ground (48.5% ground ball rate). With his bat speed, he should be hitting more than four home runs in 76 games.
He’s always been aggressive at the plate, which could hurt his overall upside. However, I still think there are 20+ home runs in the bat and a 260-ish batting average.
6. Yasser Mercedes (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with contact risk
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: Intriguing power upside but with a tendency to expand the strike zone.
The Twins had Yasser Mercedes repeat the Complex League to start 2024, and the results have been better. He made better contact and walked at an above-average rate (12.3%). His chase rate was pretty high in 2023, and I’m not ready to dismiss that tendency yet, but the early results are encouraging. He is also starting to grow into power, and when you combine that with his plus run, there’s a lot to get excited about.
The Twins rewarded his FCL performance with a promotion to Low-A. Unfortunately, after ten games, he was put on the IL for an undisclosed reason.
7. C.J. Culpepper (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: It’s not the prettiest delivery, but he has above-average stuff and control.
C.J. Culpepper was a 2022 late-round sign (12th round) out of D3 West Coast College. In looking at the statcast data and performance since being drafted, the Twins did their homework and might have hit on something.
He has good stuff with his fastball, averaging 94 MPH and topping out at 97 MPH. His best breaking pitch is his slider, although he also throws an interesting cutter. The change-up has improved in 2024 and looks good enough to neutralize glove-side hitters.
What’s most impressive is that he’s throwing strikes. The reason I say that is his delivery is unconventional. It’s a short-arm action, almost like he’s aiming the ball. He throws exclusively out of the stretch.
The size and stuff point to a mid-rotation starter, but the delivery might cause him to move to the bullpen. Regardless, I see an MLB pitcher, and for a twelfth-round pick, that’s pretty good.
8. Kaelen Culpepper (SS, #21)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: He has solid bat speed and hard-hit ratios but will expand the strike zone.
The Twins selected Kaelen Culpepper with the 21st overall pick in the 2024 Draft. He was a stretch as a first-round pick, as his approach at the plate needs a lot of work. He expands the strike zone too much, which could become a significant problem once he faces better pitching. He did post high hard-hit rates in college, but that was not the case in his first 26 games in professional ball. He maxed out in the 104 MPH range.
Culpepper should have speed early in his career, but in the long term, he’ll be more of a 10 to 12 stolen base threat. Furthermore, I would project a 15-ish home run pop with a low 300s OBP.
9. Rubel Cespedes (3B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Corner Infielder
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: Above-average power with some ability to control the strike zone.
Rubel Cespedes had a solid 2024 season, slashing .282/.346/.431 with 12 home runs. He made league-average contact with an 8.4% walk rate. He has solid exit velocities that point to above-average future home run pop, with a .260 to .270 batting average. He has a pretty big lower half, so speed will not be a big part of the profile in the future. However, there are enough skills here to put him on most deeper Dynasty League manager’s radar.
10. Rayne Doncon (SS/3B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026+ Fantasy Ceiling: Top 20 SS with risk
- Last Updated: 11/05/2024
- Tools Summary: He has electric bat speed with 20+ future home run pop.
Rayne Doncon was initially signed by the Dodgers but was moved before the 2024 season with Manny Margot for SS Noah Miller.
If you’ve ever seen Doncon play, you can easily see the dynamic bat speed he possesses. While he hit 11 home runs in 2024 and another 14 home runs in 2023, I think there is 20+ home run pop in the bat. He has hit more balls on the ground since being promoted to High-A, but after an adjustment period, I think the leverage will return. Most interesting, he’s striking out less. In 56 games in High-A, he posted a 21% strikeout rate with a 10% walk rate. He’s an average runner, so I don’t think speed will be a big part of his profile in the future. Defensively, he’s split his time between third base and shortstop, although I think third base will be where he lands.
While there’s always risk in kids with his kind of bat speed, many will fall in love with the impact of the bat on the ball and overswing. If he can avoid that, he has 20+ home runs in the bat and a chance to hit .260.
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