I live in New Jersey in the summer and see a lot of New York Yankees minor league games. Perhaps I’m suffering from recency bias, but the development of the Yankees minor league players did not go well.
I know the Yankees, fans, and fantasy managers love Spencer Jones. I saw him play a lot (at least 100 at-bats), and he strikes out A LOT. He can’t hit an inside fastball, and his swing is exceptionally long. He has power and speed, but unless he gets shorter to the ball, I worry that he’ll hit enough to make it. Roderick Arias didn’t hit, and while I didn’t see him play, I’ve gotten reports that he can’t pick up spin and expand the strike zone. Henry Lalane was hurt and never got it going. Those were three Top 100 prospects entering the season, and while Jones is still on that list, Arias and Lalane are not.
On the positive side, George Lombard had an excellent season. He needs to get stronger, but he can hit with more speed than I initially thought. Several of the Yankees’ Complex players also had great seasons, but I said that last year and those hot players in 2023 did not translate well in Low-A this season.
Finally, there is Jasson Dominguez. I maintain that he has star potential, but injuries caused him to miss considerable time, and the Yankees had to play Alex Verdugo more than I’m assuming they wanted down the stretch. I think that will change in 2024.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Jasson Dominguez
- Biggest Mover: George Lombard Jr.
- Biggest Disappointment: Spencer Jones, Henry Lalane, and Roderick Arias
- Emerging Prospect: Juan Matheus
1. Jasson Dominguez (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 OF
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: He has 20-20 upside and has improved his contact skills as he has matured.
I was not expecting to write about Jasson Dominguez, but the baseball Gods had other ideas. Dominguez started the season on the IL after having TJS, which ended his 2023 season. It was a shame for many reasons, not the least of which was that he had four home runs in eight games in New York and had taken the Major Leagues by storm. He struggled to return from the surgery, and when he finally did, the Yankees wanted to manage his service time and, consequently, kept him in the minor leagues for most of the season. He finally got the call in late September and quickly supplanted Alex Verdugo in left field.
He played well, slashing .309/.368/.480 in 44 games in Triple-A with seven home runs and 15 stolen bases. He also posted the best contact rates of his professional career.
I’ve seen Dominguez play a lot in the minor leagues, and he has star potential. He has excellent bat speed that produces high-end exit velocities, and he’s a 60-runner who has always stolen a lot of bases. He has slowed since I first saw him play, but he’s getting stronger, and you might see a cross of home runs and stolen bases as he matures. Assuming he continues to show improved contact, he could hit .270 with a 20-20 upside early in his career, with more home runs and fewer stolen bases as he ages.
2. Spencer Jones (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: His game has speed, power, and the potential for significant swing-and-miss.
Spencer Jones has more speed than I initially thought, and while the power has yet to really show, it’s in there. There are also strikeouts. In 2024, he struck out 200 times (37% of the time).
Jones is 6-foot-6, and while that is the same size as Aaron Judge, his swing is considerably longer. It’s so long that he can’t hit a pitch on the inner third of the plate. It doesn’t matter if it’s a 95 MPH fastball or not. Plus, and maybe it’s an optical illusion because of his swing path, it doesn’t look like he has great bat speed. It takes forever for him to get around on a pitch.
If he can get his arms extended, he’ll run into some home runs, and he’ll be faster than you think. But his batting average will be a limiting factor. Maybe a comp would be Jorge Soler with some speed. Then again, Soler makes a lot better contact.
I know he’s famous and a Yankee, but know your parameters.
3. George Lombard Jr. (SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a feel for hitting with modest speed and power upside.
George Lombard’s father played in the Major Leagues as a part-time player for several teams (1998 to 2006). While Lombard Jr. is still very young, his upside is higher than his father’s. He has a great feel for hitting and an excellent understanding of the strike zone. He has a chance to be a full-time regular but not necessarily an impact player.
He needs to get stronger and likely will as he matures, but I don’t expect him to ever hit more than 12 to 15 home runs annually. He’s a plus runner and should be able to post 20+ stolen bases annually. His 39 stolen bases in 2024 point to the upside.
If he can get stronger, the fantasy upside could be substantial. I believe he’ll hit, and 20 stolen bases should be in the bag. If he can get to 12 to 15 home runs, I think he’ll get to a Top 15 shortstop. That is where I will put his fantasy ceiling.
4. Will Warren (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: His fastball and sweeper look great, but his inconsistent change-up is causing some problematic splits.
Will Warren is a sinker-sweeper pitcher, and his sweeper is a real weapon. Statcast also shows him throwing his four-seamer more. He still doesn’t have a consistent change-up, which the data supports. I’m still confident he finds the change-up or moves to a splitter or sinker to get glove-side batters out (LHB). Finally, the spin on his fastball, sinker, and sweeper are tremendous. Once he gets the change-up, I think there is an excellent shot at him exceeding my projection.
5. Henry Lalane (LHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: He is a 6-foot-7 lefty who fought injuries all season, and when he finally returned in July, his fastball had backed up, and his other pitches were not as sharp.
It was a tough season for Henry Lalane, one of the Yankees’ best young pitching prospects. He missed most of the season with various injuries and pitched in only three games in 2024. When he did return in early July, the stuff was not the same. In 2023, he was up to 97 MPH with his four-seamer and sinker, but he was topping out at 94 MPH. Hopefully, he needs more time to build his arm back up.
Everyone who saw Lalane in 2023 loved him. I only saw him on MiLB. He reminded me of a lefty Eury Perez. Tall, thin with electric stuff. I am counting on him bouncing back in 2025 and have not altered his ceiling. For now, I’m chalking this up to a lost season.
6. Roderick Arias (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: He could not build on his terrific 2023 season, showing significant contact problems.
It was an uneven season for Roderick Arias in 2024. While he showed his plus speed with 37 stolen bases, he was also caught 13 times. That might be where the good news ends. He hit .233 with a 31% strikeout rate in 552 plate appearances. So, we can rule out the small sample size talk. I’ve watched many of his at-bats, and he makes poor swing decisions, leading to a high chase rate. He’s still incredibly athletic and played the entire season as a 19-year-old, but he’ll likely need to repeat Low-A in 2025. Whether he’ll be afforded that luxury is unknown. He might be forced to keep moving on up the line.
There is enough talent to make him a significant fantasy contributor, but until he makes better contact, I must caveat the ceiling with “extreme risk.”
7. Cam Schlitter (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP or High-Leveraged Reliever
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: He has the size and fastball to be a mid-rotation starter. He could be more if his control improves.
Cam Schlitter was the Yankees’ seventh-round pick in 2021 and had a significant step-up season in 2024. He primarily pitched in High and Double-A, posting a 3.36 ERA and striking out 154 hitters, tops in the Yankees organization and 15th best overall in the minor leagues.
It’s swing-and-miss stuff with a fastball that averages 96 to 97 MPH with a ton of carry through the zone. He doesn’t always repeat his delivery and is prone to bouts of wildness, but at 6-foot-6, it’s to be expected. His best secondary pitch is his slider, which is a solid 60-pitch.
He’s flying under the radar in Dynasty Leagues and has the size and fastball to pitch in the Major Leagues. I think it will be as a starter, but he could always profile as a high-leveraged reliever.
8. Chase Hampton (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: He spent most of the season on the IL with shoulder and elbow issues. His arsenal is above average, but he relies more on varying speeds and different looks than the quality of pitches.
Chase Hampton missed most of the 2024 season with shoulder and elbow issues. He finally got back on the mound in July and only pitched for six weeks before hitting the IL again with “lower body soreness.” He admits to not being in the best of shape.
I’ve seen him pitch in 2023 and 2024 and struggled to chart his pitches. I think I have a fastball (92 to 94 MPH), a slider, a sweeper, a change-up, a cutter, and a change-up. I’m unsure about the cutter, as there was a debate in the scouting section (cutter vs. bad slider). The point is that he throws a lot of pitches, and maybe you can hang a 60-grade on the slider/sweeper. I think he needs to pare the arsenal down.
While the arsenal is average, everything plays up because he can throw strikes. That might give him a ceiling of a number four starter, but I hesitate to say more unless we see his change-up or fastball improve.
9. Carlos Lagrange (RHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 45 SP
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: Young, high-octane arm who needs to find a better change-up and improved control. There are building blocks for a high-impact reliever or starter.
As with several Yankees’ minor league players, Carlos Lagrange spent most of the season on the IL. He finally made his 2024 debut on June 22. The Yankees brought him along slowly and finally started to stretch him out in August.
He has big stuff with a fastball that sits 97 MPH, touching 99. It has massive spin of 2500+ RPM and is a tough pitch to square. His out-pitch is an upper 90’s cutter with nasty bit and significant whiff rates. The change-up and slider are a work in progress, and while he doesn’t have any splits yet, he’ll need to improve them to avoid them. At 6-foot-6, his control is spotty.
Lagrange and Lalane give the Yankees two impressive young, high-octane arms. Lalane has a better chance of staying a starter, but I would not rule out Lagrange remaining in the rotation. He’ll need a better change-up and improved control to do that. But, with his size and big arm, the Yankees will do everything to nurture him and make that happen. I would be investing.
10. Everson Pereira (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 12/03/2024
- Tools Summary: He has high-end exit velocities, but there are serious questions about how much he will hit
It’s hard to believe that Everson Pereira is 23. The Yankees signed him back in 2017, and I’ve been writing about him ever since. He spent some time in New York in 2023, but the Yankees decided to hire several veterans, and now Pereira is buried. If he had played better, he might have given the Yankees something to think about, but he didn’t.
There’s no denying the high-end exit velocity, but the strikeout rate, which had improved, has regressed. He’s now back above 30% (32.4%). Plus, he’s always been aggressive at the plate.
I know he’s still only 23, and the bat speed and exit velocities are easy to get excited about. I don’t know if he’s going to hit enough. I doubt it will ever be with the Yankees.
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