The Phillies system is better than I thought before I started researching. Aidan Miller is an exciting player and might have an All-Star upside. If Andrew Painter can return to form, he could pitch at the top of the rotation in a couple of years. Remember, he hasn’t pitched in two seasons, so he needs time to return and acclimate. Then again, Kumar Rocker looked better after he returned from TJS. Justin Crawford and Starlyn Caba are also elite prospects and Crawford could see Philadelphia as soon as next season.
Those are the top four prospects in the system, but several more players could develop into Major Leaguers.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Aidan Miller
- Biggest Mover: Starlyn Caba
- Biggest Disappointment: Mick Abel
- Emerging Prospect: Eduardo Tait
1. Aidan Miller (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He has plus future power potential but needs to work on making better contact.
One of the hot players in FYPDs in 2024 was Aidan Miller. He rewarded those fantasy managers by slashing .261/.366/.446 in 102 games across Low, High, and Double-A. He also added 11 home runs and 23 stolen bases. While those numbers might not excite you, the approach at the plate looks great, and he just turned 20 in June.
Miller has elite bat speed, and as he fills out, there’s a chance for 25+ home run pop, maybe more. His approach at the plate is solid, and I believe the strikeouts will decrease with more experience. He has speed now, but I don’t think this will be part of his long-term profile as he matures and fills it out. However, in the first few years of his MLB career, he could steal 8 to 10 bases annually.
The upside is a 20+ home run hitter who could hit .270 with 70 points on top of that for his OBP and a handful of stolen bases. I’ve put his ceiling as a Top 40 outfielder with upside.
2. Andrew Painter (RHP)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with risk
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He last pitched in September of 2022 and has spent two full seasons recovering from TJS.
We last saw Andrew Painter throw competitively in September of 2022. He hurt his elbow in the spring of 2023 and had Tommy John Surgery after rest-and-rehab did not work.
Before his injury, he looked like he could pitch at the top of the rotation, but it’s been so long since he’s pitched that the risk has increased. Understand the risk and hope for the best.
3. Justin Crawford (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He has the athleticism to make him an impact player. He does need to get stronger, and given his age, there’s a strong possibility that he will.
Justin Crawford was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2022. Like his father, Carl, he’s highly athletic with 80-grade speed and plenty of bat speed. He needs to get stronger as he currently has minimal power, but I think it will come in time. He did show more pop in Double-A, but Reading is an extreme hitters park, so I need to see more before concluding that “the power has arrived.”
The best news is that he’s showing a feel to hit. He does chase too much, but again, he’s 20 with a lot of time to hone his craft. There’s a lot to like, but it will take time for him to develop. Know your parameters and, most importantly, your patience tolerance if you roster him.
4. Starlyn Caba (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He has star potential with a plus speed and a feel to hit.
Starlyn is a great athlete, a plus defender, and a 70-runner. The best news is he looks like he can hit. He controls the strike zone, walking more than he struck out in the Complex League and Low-A.
The only thing lacking is physicality. At 5-foot-9 and 160 pounds, he’s just not impacting the ball very hard. I don’t think he’ll ever have plus power, but with his athleticism, I would not bet against high single-digit home runs and plenty of doubles.
There’s a lot to like about Caba, with potential All-Star upside.
5. Mick Abel (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024-25 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 60 SP with better control
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: It’s not been a good season. He stopped throwing his change-up (his best pitch), and control is still a big problem.
I saw Mick Abel pitch twice in 2023 and was worried. It was big stuff with a fastball that sat 94 to 95 (T 98) with a plus change-up, but a slider that needed work. He’s never been a strike thrower, and I wrote that I believed he needed more time to develop. Unfortunately, everything backed up for him in 2024.
The fastball is still sitting 94 to 95 and getting solid whiff rates, but he’s not throwing his change-up. Perhaps the Phillies are having him work on his slider and curveball to get them better. The results have not been good. He posted a 6.46 ERA in 24 starts in Triple-A, including a 2.1 inning, eight earned run debacle to end the season. He walked over six per nine.
I still believe he’ll be a Major Leaguer, but a role in the bullpen is more likely now. It will allow him to use his best two pitches (fastball and change-up) and throw the occasional slider. His control would be neutralized a little in shorter stints.
6. Dante Nori (OF, #27)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s highly athletic with above-average bat speed. He was one of the oldest high school players in the 2024 Draft.
Dante Nori lasted to the back of the first round, but not because of his tools. He’s an 80 runner and can run it down in the outfield. He also has plenty of bat speed to project future power. He fell because he was an old, 19-year-old high school player. He turns 20 in October. Teams usually do not like to invest in that category of players. However, if he can hit, all will be forgiven.
He’s an intriguing player, and while he didn’t tear it up in his professional debut (.240/.424/.280 in 14 games in Low-A), he did steal four bases and didn’t look lost at the plate.
7. Jean Cabrera (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP or Reliever
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: Solid fastball-change-up pitcher in search of a breaking pitch.
At 6 feet, Jean Cabrera doesn’t have the size you want in a starter, but the arsenal is pretty solid. His fastball sits 94 to 95 and will touch 97 MPH with a tremendous ride through the zone (2400 to 2450 RPM). His best secondary pitch is his change-up, which easily grades out as a plus pitch. He’s still trying to find a breaking pitch, but his slider is his best option. I put it at 50-50 (starter vs. reliever), but if he continues to throw strikes, he’ll be a Major Leaguer.
8. Seth Johnson (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Setup with a chance for some saves
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a solid arsenal, but nothing is plus. His fastball and slider would likely play up if he moves to the bullpen.
Seth Johnson arrived in Philadelphia via the Gregory Soto trade with the Orioles. He’s now two years removed from Tommy John Surgery and shows a four-pitch arsenal (fastball – up to 96 MPH, slider, curveball, and change-up). None of his pitches grade out as plus, but they are enough to pitch effectively in the upper levels of the minor leagues. However, I’m not sure it’s enough to pitch at the highest level as a starter, and a move to the bullpen is likely. He did get a spot start in Philadelphia in September, and it didn’t go well (2.1 innings and nine earned runs – Gulp!).
If he does move to the bullpen, he’ll likely see a bump in velo. By focusing on just one secondary pitch, his slider, for instance, should make him a better pitcher. That might give him a nice career as a setup reliever who gets the occasional save.
9. Bryan Rincon (SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He has a plus glove with solid contact skills but modest power and speed.
Bryan Rincon was a late-round pick for the Phillies in the 2022 Draft (round 14). He had a solid 2023 season where he walked nearly as much as struck out in Low-A with eight home runs and 23 stolen bases. 2024 didn’t go as well. First, he missed three months of the season with a hamstring injury, and when he played, he only hit .202 with a 31.4% strikeout rate.
Because of Rincon’s excellent defensive chops, he’s a high-floor player who will likely have a low offensive ceiling. I think it’s reasonable to suggest high single-digit home runs, 12 to 15 stolen bases, and a solid batting average (I think he hits more than he showed in 2024). While Bryan Rocchio has posted a low batting average in his MLB debut season (I think he hits more), I view Rincon with a similar upside. Of course, the Phillies love stars, and that is not Rincon.
10. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF
- Last Updated: 11/19/2024
- Tools Summary: He can destroy a fastball with high-end exit velocities. Soft stuff, particularly away, gives him trouble. He’s close to being a full-time regular but might fall short.
Gabriel Rincones got off to a strong start in Reading, a hitter’s paradise, but he hurt his thumb and missed two months of action. He returned in early July and picked up where he left off.
I’ve seen him play in Double-A and the Fall League (2023). He hits the ball hard and has good speed. He struggles against soft stuff, which might be why he struck out 25% of the time in Double-A. However, he can crush a fastball. Is that enough to make him a full-time regular? Maybe. It will likely come down to him picking up spin better. If not, he’ll fall into a platoon role somewhere – likely not with the Phillies. I’ll put his ceiling as Top 60 OF with the listed caveats.
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