The Mariners have a top-heavy Minor League system. Their 1 through 5 might be the best in baseball outside the Red Sox’s Top 5 players. However, the back half of the system is not strong, and it was tough even to find players who might be relevant at the highest level.
Colt Emerson, Cole Young, and Harry Ford lead the system. While I have Emerson at the top, you can make an argument for each player to lead the system. You can even argue that Michael Arroyo, their number four ranked prospect, has the best blend of tools and feel for hitting. Felnin Celesten is about to catch Ethan Salas as the best prospect in the 2023 International class. He looked great in 2024 after an injury-riddled 2023 season.
Finally, there is Jurrangelo Cijntje. He’s a switch pitcher with enough stuff from both sides to pitch in at least Double-A. If you can maintain pitching from both sides into the Major Leagues, he could become the most discussed player in baseball since Shohei Ohtani made his debut in 2018.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Colt Emerson
- Biggest Mover: Felnin Celesten
- Biggest Disappointment: Jonny Farmelo – only because he got hurt.
- Emerging Prospect: Dawel Joseph
1. Colt Emerson (SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: He’s a high-floor player with the tools to be a .300 hitter and 15 to 20 future home run power. Speed will not be a big part of his game.
Colt Emerson played the entire 2024 season across Low and High-A as an 18-year-old. He showed impressive control of the strike zone, walking nearly as much as he struck out (57K vs. 50BB). He’s more of a doubles hitter, but as he fills out and gets stronger, I expect him to develop into 15 to 20 home runs annually. He’s an average runner, and as he fills out, I don’t expect stolen bases to be a big part of his game. Also, I expect him to have to move off shortstop with second base, which is the logical landing place.
He’s a high-floor player with a chance to be a high OBP player with 15 to 20 home run pop and plenty of doubles. However, given his age and size, there is a chance that 20+ home run pop develops.
2. Cole Young (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS or Top 10 2B
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: He’s demonstrating a plus hit tool with speed and solid power potential.
Cole Young was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2022 and has developed into one of the best prospects in the game. He’s showing excellent contact (16% strikeout rate) and walking well over the league average (12% walk rate).
He only posted a .390 SLG while hitting nine home runs in Double-A in 2024, so I expect more doubles power than over the fence (12 to 15 HRs). He’s a plus runner and could easily steal 20 to 25 bases annually. If he stays at shortstop, the ceiling is a Top 15 shortstop. If he moves to second, he could be a Top 5 to 10 fantasy player at that position.
3. Harry Ford (C)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 10 Catcher
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: The power did not carry forward to Double-A as the exit velo is more average. He continues to steal bases at a high clip.
Harry Ford is one of my favorite players in the minor leagues. I love his athleticism and feel for hitting, and if he can retain catcher eligibility, he could be a significant fantasy contributor. The reports have been fair on his defensive prowess, with the industry seemingly split on whether he can stay behind the plate.
Offensively, there is a lot to like. He continues to make league-average contact but doesn’t expand the strike zone and is posting a high walk rate. He’s a well above-average runner with solid success rates on the basepaths. The power did not carry forward to Double-A as his exit velocities are more average than above average.
A reasonable offensive projection is a .260 to .270 hitter with 80 to 100 points more for OBP, 15 to 20+ stolen bases, and 10 to 12 home runs. He will be a great fantasy player if he can hit those projections and stay behind the plate.
4. Michael Arroyo (2B/SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025-26 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B/3B
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: He’s showing an excellent feel for hitting with an advanced approach and enough bat speed to project future above-average power.
After the Mariners skipped Michael Arroyo over the Complex League in 2023, they had him repeat Low-A to begin the 2024 season. He continued to show excellent bat-to-ball skills, striking out at a league average of 21% and walking 12.5% of the time. At the end of June, he was promoted to High-A, where he continued to hit, although with a bit more strikeouts (26% strikeout rate).
His power has improved the most in 2024 as he drove the ball better with higher exit velocities.
Even with the improved power, he’s first and foremost a hitter who should be able to post high OPB skills. As the power develops, there is 15+ home run potential and some speed early in his career. He’s primarily playing second base now and could move to third or a corner outfield as he continues to fill out.
5. Felnin Celesten (SS)
- Highest Level: Complex ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: He showed a feel for hitting with plus speed and more power than first advertised.
Along with Ethan Salas, Felnin Celesten was the other big international signee in 2023. A knee injury delayed his professional debut until 2024, but he looked like the real deal in 32 games in the Arizona Complex League. He’s athletic with plus speed and a feel for the strike zone. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and is making excellent contact. He’s also shown more power than what was advertised.
He should begin the 2025 season in Low-A with a chance to end the season in High-A.
6. Lazaro Montes (OF)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF or DH
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: He has enormous power potential with solid OBP skills but does strike out more than you would like.
Lazaro Montes’ carrying tool is potentially 80-grade raw power, which could produce 30+ future home run pop, maybe more. He’s a huge kid who will likely get bigger, so strikeouts will be part of the equation. While he only struck out 19% of the time in Low-A, once he faced better pitching, the chase rate increased, and so did the strikeouts (30%).
Some have compared him to Yordan Alvarez. I get the physical comparison, but Alvarez is such a good, disciplined hitter. He doesn’t swing at pitches he can’t hit. Maybe Montes will grow into that, but he’s not there yet – not even close.
Montes’s ceiling is a 30—maybe 40-home run power hitter who will post impressive exit velocities. If he can keep his strikeouts in check, he has All-Star potential.
7. Jonny Farmelo (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: Toolsy outfielder, showing a better hit tool than I initially thought. Unfortunately, he blew out his knee in mid-June and missed the remainder of the season.
Jonny Farmelo was the Mariners’ first-round performance compensation pick in 2023 as a reward for Julio Rodriguez winning the AL ROY in 2022. He’s a toolsy outfielder with plus speed and plenty of bat speed to project power. In his brief time in Low-A, he showed a solid understanding of the strike zone (23.5% strikeout rate and 16% walk rate). Unfortunately, his season ended early when he blew out his knee (ACL). He had surgery, missed the rest of the season, and could start 2025 late.
Assuming he returns healthy, and there’s every reason to suggest he will, there’s a lot to like. He could be a dynamic leadoff hitter with 10 to 12 home run pop, 30+ stolen bases, and a solid batting average.
8. Jurrangelo Cijntje (BHP, #15)
- Highest Level: College ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: No idea
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: He has a chance to pitch as a switch pitcher in the Major Leagues.
I’ve never written BHP before, but yes, Jurrangelo Cijntje throws from both sides. I don’t even know the MLB rules. Do you have to declare which arm per batter, or can you go pitch-to-pitch? He already has a special glove. Will that be legal in MLB? These are all fun questions, but Cijntje has a legitimate shot at pitching with both arms at the highest level. His stats are better as a right-handed pitcher. His fastball will touch the upper 90s with a plus slider and solid change-up. He throws across his body as a lefty and only touches 96 MPH. He doesn’t throw a change-up against lefties as he doesn’t need to; he pitches right-handed instead.
Weird, right? It’s definitely fun. What can we expect? I am still determining how this will play out, but he has the stuff to be at least a mid-rotation starter. Does the switch pitching aspect make him even better, or is he twice as likely to get injured? Does he abandon one side and try to carve out a career as an RHP or LHP? Again, I have no idea.
9. Tyler Locklear (1B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Corner Infielder
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: Solid OBP skills with above-average power potential.
Tyler Locklear, the Mariners’ second-round pick in 2022, made rapid progress through the system in 2024. He started in Double-A, was promoted to Triple-A in late May, and even played 16 games in Seattle over the summer. He only hit .156 in Seattle.
In looking at the data, I don’t see an impact player. There appears to be enough to be a full-time regular, but his approach has some chase, and his exit velocities and bat speed are average. His strikeout rate in Triple-A was 24%, which is good but not great. I think that’s how I would characterize him. He’s a good prospect but not great.
10. Logan Evans (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 01/10/2025
- Tools Summary: He was one of the pop-up pitchers in the minor leagues in 2024 with an improved arsenal and throwing more strikes.
Logan Evans was the Mariners’ 12th-round pick in 2023, making the Texas League look easy. He’s pounding the strike zone with a heavy sinker that tops at 97 MPH and a new slider that will likely be characterized as a sweeper by Statcast. His change-up is average, but he uses his sinker to neutralize glove-side batters.
Given Seattle’s ability to find and develop starters, Dynasty League managers, even in shallow leagues, should be jumping on the bandwagon.
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