The Rays have the deepest minor league system, and I’m not sure it’s close. The top of the system takes a hit with Junior Caminero’s promotion, but Carson Williams is no slouch. I worry about how much he’ll hit, but he has fantasy-friendly tools and can pick it at shortstop. I loved the Rays’ selection of Brayden Taylor in the 2023 Draft, but his 37% strikeout rate in High-A is ugly.
Speaking of strikeout rates, that’s one of the things I find interesting about the Rays system. There is a lot of swing-and-miss with players in their system. More so than I can ever remember. Xavier Isaac is another player who struck out a lot last season. I wonder if this is a direction change for the team – worry less about contact and care more about OBP.
There’s a lot to build from here, and that is the Rays’ way. However, they can’t possibly keep all of these players, as the 40-man limitation will become a significant problem in a couple of years.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Carson Williams
- Biggest Mover: Gary Gill Hill and Dylan Lasko
- Biggest Disappointment: Cole Wilcox and Mason Montgomery
- Emerging Prospect: Leonardo Pineda
1. Carson Williams (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with risk
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: Exciting fantasy tools, but strikeouts are still a problem.
There’s a lot to get excited about with Carson Williams. He shows power, is a plus runner, and might be a 70 defender at short. He’s always struggled to make contact, which remains a problem. He still struggles to pick up soft stuff (breaking and off-speed pitches). If you give him a fastball, he can do damage with it. This can be solved through repetition, but it won’t be easy. The good news is that he turned 21 in July, so there’s plenty of time to improve. If he can get to even average contact skills (23 to 25%), he can be an impact performer at the highest level with 20-15 types of upside.
2. Xavier Isaac (1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 1B with contact risk
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s showing power and speed, but he’s still a work in progress with a strikeout rate that has become problematic.
After Xavier Isaac slugged .898 in 12 games to end the 2023 season, he returned to earth in 2024. He has solid country raw power but lacks the bat speed to catch up to high-end velocity. He did trade off power for contact in 2024. I wonder if he was jazzed by his late success at the end of 2023.
He should be able to run into 20 home runs annually, but if it comes with a 30% strikeout rate, that could limit his ceiling. In High-A, he added leverage, and the strikeout rate went from 21% to 30%. He also needs help with off-speed pitches, swinging through too many pitches. After his move to Double-A, the strikeout rate spiked even more (40.6% in 133 plate appearances).
He got in better shape and stole 15 bases, but I’m not buying he’s a stolen base threat. He might be able to steal a handful of bases annually. The good news is that he was in better shape. I believe conditioning will be a factor for him, and keeping his weight down is critical.
I’ve been all over the map on my ceiling with Isaac. I think he’s still a work in progress, and his swing mechanics and physical changes add uncertainty to my analysis. I continue to put his ceiling as a corner infielder with high OBP skills, but it could come with 20 to 25 home run pop.
3. Brayden Taylor (3B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: He has all-around skills with a beautiful lefty stroke that should produce 20+ future home run pop. He has struck out more than I initially thought.
I targeted Brayden Taylor in my FYPDs after the Rays took him with the 19th overall pick in the 2023 Draft. It’s a tremendous lefty stroke with natural loft that, when combined with above-average exit velocities, he should be able to hit 20+ home runs at the highest level. He also has excellent plate awareness and should be able to hit. He’s far from a burner but should steal 12 to 15 bases annually, especially early in his career.
In 2024, he split his time between High and double-A. He showed power and speed but struck out more than I would have thought. He posted a 25% strikeout rate in high-A and a 37% rate in Double-A. His strikeout rate in Double-A is alarming, small sample size or not (125 plate appearances).
Taylor still got on a base at a high clip because of his ability to work a walk. His contact rate is something to monitor. If he can keep it in the 25% range, he should be able to reach his ceiling. If not, we will have to revisit.
4. Aidan Smith (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: Toolsy outfielder with concerns about how much contact he will make.
Aiden Miller was the Mariners’ fourth-round pick in 2023. He is an athletic outfielder with the potential for speed and power. He is beginning to ease concerns about his ability to hit, as he’s kept his strikeout rate under control (23%) and is walking a ton (14%). He might actually need to get more aggressive at the plate.
Smith was traded along with Brody Hopkins at the deadline. This gives the Rays yet another high-upside outfielder in their stable. An added benefit of the move is that the Rays are good at improving a player’s approach, which can only help Smith in his development process.
5. Tre’ Morgan (1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Corner Infielder, but if he adds leverage, he could be much more.
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: He makes elite contact, but his swing path is built more for hitting for contact and not power.
Tre’ Morgan was the Rays’ third-round pick in 2023. He makes excellent contact, is an above-average runner, and is a plus defender. He also has below-average power, and unfortunately, he plays first base.
Before you decide to stop reading, let me point out a few things. He’s not small and has solid bat speed. However, his swing has no leverage, so he beats everything on the ground. When you watch him play, it’s a classic slap-and-go approach. He might develop power if the Rays can change his swing and add leverage. He also might lose some of his contact skills.
He has played a little left field, giving thoughts of a Steven Kwan-type career. However, he’s such a great defender at first base that the Rays might continue to play him there.
Many are excited about his 2024 performance and believe fantasy gold is brewing. After all, he hit .324 with ten home runs and 20 stolen bases. I’m a little cautious until I see a swing change and more power before I get excited. Otherwise, he’s a light-hitting first baseman or even left fielder.
6. Gary Gill Hill (RHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s throwing hard and already showing a solid change-up. There’s a long way to go, but some nice building blocks are here.
The Rays drafted Gary Gill Hill in the sixth round of the 2022 Draft. Over the winter, he added 20 pounds to his frame and came in, throwing harder with a fastball that will touch 97 MPH. His delivery is pretty raw, but plenty of athleticism suggests he will eventually throw strikes. His best secondary pitch is his change-up, which eats up young Low-A hitters.
He has all the ingredients to be a Big Leaguer, and with the Rays guiding him, he could eventually develop into at least a number four starter, more if he can develop his slider better. There’s a lot here to like.
7. Santiago Suarez (RHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: A potential plus arsenal who throws strikes. It looks like the recipe for a top-of-the-rotation starter.
I have Santiago Suarez on my minor league roster in many Dynasty Leagues. I like the setup with him, as he has a combination of stuff and control and plays in one of the best organizations in baseball.
He has a solid three-pitch mix, with his fastball sitting 95 to 96 MPH (T 97) with high spin. The slider is a little ahead of his change-up, but both should grade out as above-average pitches as he continues to refine them. Most importantly, he throws strikes. In 111.2 innings in 2024, he walked 21 (1.7 BB/9).
8. Brailer Guerrero (OF)
- Highest Level: Complex ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: He has tremendous bat speed and a feel for hitting.
Brailer Guerrero was one of the big International Signs in 2023, signing for $3.4 million with the Rays. He didn’t play much in 2023 because of a torn labrum that required off-season surgery. The Rays decided to bring him stateside to begin the 2024 season. Unfortunately, he lasted only 28 games before his shoulder started bothering him, and he hit the IL in June and did not play again.
Guerrero has tremendous bat speed and projects to hit for plus power. While he hasn’t played much, he’s showing a feel for contact without expanding the strike zone. He loves the run and is aggressive on the base paths. However, he’s already a big kid at 6-foot-1 and a reported 215 pounds, so speed will likely not be a considerable part of his game long-term.
Losing playing time over the past two years because of a shoulder issue is not ideal. Hopefully, the Rays can solve the problem, and he’ll be injury-free in 2025.
9. Chandler Simpson (OF)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 75 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s a slap-and-go hitter with 80-grade speed and 20-grade power.
Chandler Simpson wins the stolen base crown of the minor leagues for the second year in a row. In 2023, he tied with Victor Scott with 94. This year, he was alone at the top of the heap with 104. Second place was 74.
Simpson is the definition of a slap-and-go hitter with high contact skills and high ground ball rates. His job is to touch the ball and go. It’s an 80s-style model, but that style was 40 years ago, and one wonders if his profile will play in the modern game where power is critical. He finally hit his first home run in 2024 and now has a grand total of one for his minor league career.
There are many tough guys to rank the Rays system, and Simpson might be at the top. He can hit with crazy speed, but there’s no power. He could be a fantasy monster in three categories and a massive problem in the other two. Plus, will he get full-time at-bats? It’s the same calculus when you roster a 30+ home run hitter who can’t hit. Except, usually, hitting trumps everything. My counsel is to know your parameters with Simpson. Don’t over-evaluate him, and have a plan if he gets full-time at-bats. You must make up for his lack of home runs and RBIs. I can’t imagine him adding power.
10. Brody Hopkins (RHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or top 50 SP
- Last Updated: 12/06/2024
- Tools Summary: He has an electric fastball-slider combination and will likely move to the bullpen once he gets to the upper minors. However, with a better change-up, he still could start.
Brody Hopkins was the Mariners’ sixth-round pick in 2023. He was a two-way player at Winthrop, a small but surprisingly strong baseball college outside Charlotte, NC. He’s moved to pitching full-time, and while raw, there’s a lot to like.
His fastball can touch the upper 90s but sits 94 to 96 MPH. It’s a lower three-quarter delivery, and with the tailing action he gets, it’s a tough pitch to square. His slider is also a plus offering, and again, with his arm angle, it’s tough to square. He doesn’t have a pitch to neutralize glove-side batters (LHB), but he doesn’t show any splits. That could change as he moves through the minor leagues.
While he has the size and athleticism to start, the delivery points to a bullpen arm. With his delivery and stuff, though, he could be nasty, particularly with right-handed batters. I’m putting his ceiling as a Closer with a chance to start if he can develop a better change-up.
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