When your top prospect is also your biggest disappointment, that doesn’t say a lot for an organization’s minor league system. But that is where we are with the Toronto Blue Jays.
I will say that the system is deeper after the moves they made at the trade deadline, but it’s still a very weak system. Orelvis Martinez was suspended for 80 games for a PED violation, Ricky Tiedemann had TJS in July, and Arjun Nimmala struck out 31% of the time in Low-A. That’s how it starts. Well, Trey Yesavage is wedged in the Top 3, but he didn’t pitch because of his long college season.
Charlie McAdoo, Alan Roden, and Kendry Rojas are interesting as top 200-ish players, and I still hold out hope that Manuel Beltre will develop into something, but there’s just not much here.
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Orelvis Martinez
- Biggest Mover: Alan Roden
- Biggest Disappointment: Orelvis Martinez
- Emerging Prospect: Johnny King
1. Orelvis Martinez (3B/SS)
- Highest Level: MLB ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B/2B
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: He has 70-grade power with improved swing decisions. Unfortunately, he got hit with an 80-game PED suspension.
It was a season of highs and lows for Orelvis Martinez. On June 21, he played his first MLB game and went 1 for 3. Two days later, he was suspended for 80 games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.
While questions will persist once he returns, I think the power is real. He’s always shown it. What was encouraging was his swing decisions. He reduced his chase rate (O-swing 33% to 28%), resulting in fewer strikeouts. I don’t think he’ll ever hit .300, but a .250 batting average with 70 points more for his OBP is reasonable. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 30 home runs annually.
I think he will move to third or second base in the long term, but he could play shortstop if the Jays decide to move on from Bo Bichette.
2. Ricky Tiedemann (LHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with health risk
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: He has the size and arsenal to pitch at the top of the rotation. However, health has been a problem, and after rest and rehab, he had TJS in July.
Ricky Tiedemann has the arsenal to pitch at the top of the rotation, but health concerns reared their ugly head again in 2024. He was sent twice to the IL for irritation in the ulnar nerve in his elbow. When rest and rehab did not work, he had TJS in July and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.
When healthy, he has excellent stuff. His fastball will touch 98 MPH with a nasty sweeper that should get elite whiff rates. His change-up also has a significant fade and should neutralize glove-side hitters. He can also repeat his delivery, which gives me hope that he’ll throw strikes.
I’m keeping his ceiling as a number two starter, but the risk has increased because of TJS.
3. Trey Yesavage (RHP, #20)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP with upside
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s a polished college pitcher who should move quickly through the minor leagues. He has the size and a true out pitch with his splitter.
The Blue Jays drafted Trey Yesavage in the first round of the 2024 Draft (Pick #20). He posted an impressive 2.02 ERA in his draft year, striking out 14 per nine. He’s primarily a fastball-splitter pitcher, but the splitter is flat-out nasty, dropping heavily as it gets to the plate. He rarely throws a slider but will likely need this pitch to be effective at the highest level.
Yesavage is a short-strider, which is usually a sign of a pitcher having trouble controlling his stuff. It’s a shame because extending his delivery could make his stuff more explosive at his height (6-foot-4). It’s one reason I believe Taijuan Walker’s ceiling was always limited.
There’s a lot to like with Yesavage. He’s polished with a true out-pitch in his splitter. He should move through the minor leagues quickly. I expect him to start 2025 in High-A.
4. Arjun Nimmala (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027+ Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: He has excellent bat speed, but his hit tool is very raw.
Arjun Nimmala was the Blue Jays’ first-round pick in 2023 (pick #20). His carrying tool is plus bat speed, and as he fills out, he projects to hit for plus power. His hit-tool is exceptionally raw as he expands the strike zone (high chase rate) and struggles with breaking pitches. He struck out 31.3% of the time in Low-A. The good news is that he was the second youngest positional player in the Florida State League, so he does have time to figure it out. I’d love to be able to say that his strikeout rate improved as the season progressed, but it didn’t. He struck out as much in August and September as in April.
This is a risk-reward play. Nimmala hits the ball hard and has a chance to be a power-hitting infielder. However, the strikeouts are scary, and we can talk about how young he is until we are blue in the face. History has not been kind to players who strike out 30% of the time in Low-A. Know your parameters and risk tolerance before rostering Nimmala in a Dynasty League.
I will keep his ceiling as a Top 15 shortstop with extreme risk.
5. Charles McAdoo (OF/1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: He has quick hands that should produce future power. It’s all going to come down to how much he hits.
Charlie McAdoo was the Pirates’ 13th-round pick in 2023. He played great last season in 28 games and has shown speed, power, and feel to hit in 57 games in High-A. His body is not great, but he has fast hands and generates plenty of bat speed to project future power. I don’t see the speed continuing as he continues to fill out. His swing has a lot of leverage, and as he moved to Double-A, the strikeouts increased. If his strikeout rate gets to the upper 20%, it will put a lot of pressure on his batting average and ultimately limit his ceiling.
While there is some fantasy goodness on the surface, there’s also some hair on it once you dig deeper into the profile.
6. Alan Roden (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: He controls the strike zone extremely well. He doesn’t hit the ball very hard, so he’ll likely have more doubles-power than over-the-fence power.
Alan Roden, the Blue Jays third-round pick in 2022, is building on his 2023 breakout season. He rarely strikes out and walks nearly as much as he strikes out. The swing looks great, and his in-zone contact is exceptionally high (93% z-contact). He doesn’t hit the ball very hard, and at 24, I’m not sure how much power he will develop. However, he can flat-out hit with above-average speed.
He might be a fourth outfielder, but his skill set is similar to Steven Kwan’s. The Guardians value that level of contact. Do the Blue Jays?
7. Eddinson Paulino (2B/3B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: His impact on the ball in the lower minor leagues did not translate as he moved into Double-A.
Eddinson Paulino struggled in Double-A. Maybe struggle is not the word. He still shows a solid understanding of the strike zone (21.6% strikeout and 10.4% walk rate), and the bat speed still looks at least average. However, the power appears to be more doubles than over-the-fence, and he’s not stealing as many bases. I never thought he would be a star, but he’s not impacting the ball like I thought. He looks like a soft regular, maybe even an extra bat.
I’ll keep his ceiling as a middle infielder, hoping that the Blue Jays can unlock something and he can become a high-end prospect again. He hit the IL shortly before he was traded and only played in 10 games with the Blue Jays at the end of the season. He hit .143.
8. Jonatan Clase (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF if he can hit enough
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: He’s a 70-runner who is not void of power. He needs to make better contact, or it will limit his ceiling.
Jonatan Clase got some time in the Major Leagues in 2024 but didn’t hit enough to stay. That might ultimately be his problem.
He’s not void of power and has enough bat speed and exit velocity to be a doubles-hitter and even pop 5 to 8 home runs. He’s fast and has always stolen plenty of bases. However, he strikes out too much. He posted a strikeout rate of 25% in Triple-A. While that might be okay for a power-hitter, it’s worrisome when you’re a player that relies on getting on base and causing havoc with your speed. He does walk a ton, maybe too much, as he’s letting good pitches pass.
From a fantasy standpoint, he could rack up the stolen bases and run scored if given a chance. But work must be done before I can confidently predict that. It’s feeling more like a fourth outfielder.
9. Kendry Rojas (LHP)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: Sinker-slider pitcher with control of his arsenal.
Kendry Rojas looked good in his ten starts (11 games) in High-A. He missed two months of the season with a shoulder injury, so returning to finish the season was a victory. He throws a heavy sinker with high spin and gets tons of ground balls. He also throws a four-seamer that works up in the zone. His slider shows promise, but his change-up needs work. He could use his sinker if the change-up doesn’t develop. While it was a small sample size, he also threw strikes.
It’s an excellent starter kit to work as a mid-rotation starter long-term. He should start the 2025 back in High-A with a chance to see Double-A in the second half.
10. Josh Kasevich (SS)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder
- Last Updated: 12/10/2024
- Tools Summary: Plus hit tool with modest speed and power potential.
John Kasevich makes excellent contact with impressive in-zone contact (96% z-contact). However, he has little power with low exit velocities and poor leverage. Consequently, he will mostly be a single and doubles hitter. He also has average speed, so it’s reasonable to expect 8 to 10 stolen bases annually from him.
Candidly, it’s not an exciting fantasy profile, but he can hit, and when you combine that with his ability to play all over the infield, he could be a big leaguer. I will put his ceiling as a middle infielder – in the mold of Adam Frazier.
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