Chicago Cubs Farm System: The Cubs system offers a wide spectrum of outcomes, with a few everyday-caliber bats and changeup-driven arms at the top, followed by a deep pool of developmental bets, role-player profiles, and high-variance upside that will require patience to sort out.
Summary
The Cubs system is a blend of high-variance upside and role-player depth, anchored by a few standout bats and a wave of intriguing arms. Moises Ballesteros and Owen Caissie offer MLB-ready bats but with vastly different profiles. Caissie is power and OBP, but Ballesteros is the more complete player.
On the pitching side, Jaxon Wiggins leads the way with mid-rotation upside, while Dominick Reid and Josiah Hartshorn offer changeup-driven starter profiles with developmental runway. Brandon Birdsell and William Sanders have reliever risk but enough stuff to dream on backend roles.
Overall, the Cubs system is deeper than it is top-heavy, with a wide range of outcomes across the board. There’s no slam-dunk fantasy star, but several players—Ballesteros, Jefferson Rojas, Jaxon Wiggins, and James Triantos—have paths to everyday roles, and the 2025 draft class injected fresh upside. For Dynasty managers, it’s a system worth monitoring closely, especially for speed, contact, and changeup-driven arms.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Target
- Moises Ballesteros – Elite contact skills with emerging power. If loft comes, he’s a Top 15 bat at C/1B/DH.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Owen Caissie – 70-grade raw power with OBP skills. If contact improves, he’s a 30-HR threat.
- Jefferson Rojas – Athletic middle infielder with bat speed and contact skills. Solid foundation with 15/15 upside.
- James Triantos – High-contact, plus-speed contributor with multi-positional eligibility. Sneaky fantasy value if loft develops.
- Cristian Hernandez – Reworked swing and 70-grade speed. Trending toward a rebound with Top 15 2B upside.
- Jaxon Wiggins – Power arsenal and swing-and-miss stuff. If command holds, he’s a mid-rotation starter with fantasy juice.
- Ethan Conrad – Power bat. If the approach tightens post-surgery, he’s a Top 15 1B candidate.
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
Become a Patreon member to see more tiering of players – patreon.com/prospect361.com
2026 Player Profiles
1. Moises Ballesteros (C)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher/1B/DH
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Elite contact skills with emerging power. If loft comes, he’s a Top 15 bat at C/1B/DH.
Ballesteros’s carrying tool is elite contact ability, driven by exceptional hand-eye coordination and zone coverage. He’ll chase pitches most hitters wouldn’t dream of touching—yet still puts them in play with remarkable consistency. Despite hitting just nine home runs, he produces harder contact than the stat line suggests. His swing lacks loft, so much of his power shows up in doubles rather than over-the-fence damage. If he adds lift, the home runs should follow.
Defensively, Ballesteros is average behind the plate and has seen time at first base, but he’s best suited for a DH role. That limits his fantasy appeal unless the Cubs commit to his bat long-term. After a brief stint in Chicago early in 2025 (.188 in 18 PA), he returned in September and looked far more comfortable—slashing .321 over 10 games while filling in for Kyle Tucker.
Fantasy managers should treat Ballesteros as a high-contact bat with sneaky power upside if the swing evolves. His path to playing time may hinge on defensive fit, but the offensive foundation is strong enough to warrant attention in deeper formats—especially if the Cubs lean into his bat-first profile.
2. Owen Caissie (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF with contact risk
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: 70-grade raw power with OBP skills. If contact improves, he’s a 30-HR threat.
After spending all of 2024 in Triple-A, Owen Caissie returned to the level in 2025 and showed incremental progress. His chase rate dipped slightly to 26%—still elevated—but his in-zone contact improved, suggesting a player working to refine his approach. The Cubs rewarded him with a late-season call-up in August, where he slashed .192/.222/.346 over 12 games, flashing power but also inconsistency.
Caissie’s calling card is raw power, backed by high-end exit velocities that point to 30-homer upside. That power comes with swing-and-miss risk—if the strikeout rate hovers around 30%, he’s likely a .230 hitter. Fortunately, his consistently strong walk rates help buoy his OBP, giving him a chance to contribute even when the batting average lags. The profile resembles a Kyle Schwarber type: big power, elevated strikeouts, and enough walks to stay fantasy-relevant.
Fantasy managers should treat Caissie as a power-first bat with middle-of-the-order potential. If the contact skills continue to trend upward, he could grow into a valuable contributor in OBP formats with 30-HR upside. The floor is volatile, but the ceiling remains enticing.
3. Jefferson Rojas (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Athletic middle infielder with bat speed and contact skills. Solid foundation with 15/15 upside.
Signed for $1 million in 2022, Jefferson Rojas has steadily impressed with his athleticism, bat speed, and overall feel for the game. He spent most of 2025 in High-A, showing improved power while maintaining excellent contact rates, then earned a post–All-Star break promotion to Double-A, where he continued to flash a well-rounded offensive skill set.
Rojas isn’t likely to become a true power hitter, but modest growth is within reach—15 home runs feels attainable as he fills out physically. His swing is geared more for line drives than loft, but the bat speed and approach suggest he’ll make enough contact to tap into that ceiling. Add in similar stolen base potential and defensive versatility, and he profiles as a potential everyday middle infielder.
Fantasy managers should treat Rojas as a steady performer with deep-league relevance. The upside isn’t explosive, but the foundation is solid, and continued physical development could push him into the top tier of Cubs prospects with AVG, speed, and multi-positional value.
4. James Triantos (2B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: High-contact, plus-speed contributor with multi-positional eligibility. Sneaky fantasy value if loft develops.
James Triantos can flat-out hit. His in-zone contact rate sits at an impressive 90%, and despite elevated chase rates, he consistently puts the bat on the ball thanks to elite hand-eye coordination. He’s aggressive, especially on pitches outside the zone, but the bat control allows him to survive. Triantos is also a plus runner, swiping 47 bases in 2024 and 29 more in 2025, adding sneaky fantasy value even without top-end speed.
His power output is limited by a high groundball rate and average exit velocities, with most of his damage coming via doubles. A swing adjustment could unlock more loft and over-the-fence power, but that hasn’t materialized yet. Defensively, he’s been serviceable at second base but below average in center field, with questionable routes and arm strength—likely capping his versatility.
Fantasy managers should treat Triantos as a high-contact, speed-influenced contributor with multi-positional eligibility. If the swing evolves and the power ticks up, he could become a quietly valuable asset in deeper formats, especially those that reward batting average and stolen bases.
5. Kevin Alcantara (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Loud tools but swing length and approach issues. Needs refinement to unlock power-speed profile.
Kevin Alcantara boasts some of the loudest tools in the Cubs system—elite bat speed, legitimate plus speed, and the physicality to project future home run power. But like O’Neil Cruz, the question is whether he’ll hit enough to unlock it. At 6-foot-6, swing length is inevitable, and in 2025, it caught up to him. His strikeout rate jumped to 32%, and his ability to handle spin deteriorated. He’s expanding the zone too much (29% O-Swing), and the whiffs are piling up.
Despite the tools, Alcantara has yet to post a 20-homer or 20-steal season. The power and speed are real, but until he tightens his approach and controls the zone, the production won’t match the potential. He’s fallen down the Cubs’ depth chart and now faces a critical adjustment phase. The raw ingredients are enticing, but the hit tool needs refinement.
Fantasy managers should treat Alcantara as a volatile upside play. The ceiling remains high, but without tangible progress in zone control and contact quality, he risks fading from relevance in competitive formats. At 23, there’s still time—but the window is narrowing.
6. Cristian Hernandez (SS/2B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Reworked swing and 70-grade speed. Trending toward a rebound with Top 15 2B upside.
Signed for $3 million in 2021, Cristian Hernandez was largely written off in Dynasty circles after a rough 2023 campaign (.223/.302/.301). His swing had grown long, but the Cubs made mechanical adjustments—widening his stance and repositioning his hands—to help him shorten up. The results have been encouraging, with improved contact quality and a more stable offensive foundation. The power may take a backseat for now, but reestablishing the hit tool was the first priority.
Hernandez remains a 70-grade runner and has split time between shortstop and second base in 2025 after playing mostly second in 2024. He’s an excellent defender at second and can handle shortstop in a pinch, giving him positional flexibility and a path to playing time. The athleticism and instincts are still evident, and the recent progress suggests he’s finally converting raw tools into usable skills.
Fantasy managers should treat Hernandez as a rebound candidate with deep-league relevance. The speed, defense, and improved contact give him a shot to reemerge, and if the power returns over time, he could become a multi-category contributor with sneaky upside.
7. Jaxon Wiggins (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP or Reliever
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Power arsenal and swing-and-miss stuff. If command holds, he’s a mid-rotation starter with fantasy juice.
A first-round talent who slipped due to Tommy John surgery, Jaxon Wiggins is now healthy and flashing the arsenal that made him a high-upside arm. His fastball sits 95–96 mph and touches 98, paired with a hard, cutting slider that misses bats and an improved changeup that’s helped neutralize platoon splits. In 2025, he pitched across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, posting a stellar 1.95 ERA over 18 games (17 starts) before being shut down in July after reaching his innings cap.
The control still needs refinement, and the delivery shows some effort, but the stuff is legit and trending up. Wiggins returned in late August with shorter outings to close the year, maintaining velocity and pitch quality. If the command sharpens and the delivery holds, he has the tools to grow into a mid-rotation starter with swing-and-miss upside.
Fantasy managers should treat Wiggins as a strong stash in deeper formats. The arsenal is explosive, and with continued refinement, he could emerge as a high-strikeout starter with impact potential by mid-2026.
8. Ethan Conrad (OF/1B, #17)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 1B
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Power bat. If the approach tightens post-surgery, he’s a Top 15 1B candidate.
Selected No. 17 overall out of Wake Forest, Ethan Conrad was on track for a breakout season before a shoulder injury in May derailed his year. He ultimately required surgery and won’t return to game action until 2026, but the Cubs were betting on the upside. Conrad’s calling card is raw power, and he backed it up with a .389 average in his draft year despite an aggressive approach and some swing-and-miss in his game.
The swing is geared for damage, and the physicality is already in place. If he can manage the chase and refine his pitch selection, Conrad has the tools to grow into a slugging corner outfielder or first baseman. He just turned 21 in July, so despite the setback, he remains age-appropriate for his class and retains long-term viability.
Fantasy managers should treat Conrad as a power-first stash with middle-of-the-order upside. The missed time is frustrating, but the bat has impact potential, and in formats that reward power early, he’s a name to track closely once healthy.
9. Jonathon Long (1B)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Strong-side Platoon 1B
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: Platoon bat with 20–25 HR upside. If splits normalize, he’s a viable everyday 1B.
Jonathon Long has steadily climbed the minor league ladder since being drafted in 2023, showcasing above-average to plus raw power with exit velocities up to 108 mph. His swing is short to the ball, and he controls the zone well, posting a 19% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate. He’s a below-average runner, and speed isn’t part of the profile, but the bat has real thump and middle-of-the-order potential.
Long has shown pronounced platoon splits, slugging 150 points higher against right-handed pitching. Those splits were less noticeable before 2025, but Triple-A breaking balls have widened the gap. Defensively, he’s seen time in the outfield and at third base, but the lack of athleticism points to first base or DH as his most realistic home. There’s some hair on the profile—platoon risk and defensive limitations—but the bat could play in a strong-side platoon.
Fantasy managers should treat Long as a power-first corner bat with deep-league relevance. If the splits normalize, he has a path to becoming a full-time first baseman with 20–25 homer upside and a .250 average—especially valuable in formats that reward slugging and OBP.
10. Pedro Ramirez (2B/3B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 10/03/2025
- Tools Summary: High-contact MI with speed and sneaky power. Needs loft to unlock full fantasy value.
Pedro Ramirez is an intriguing middle infield prospect with above-average speed, a feel for hitting, and exit velocity that hints at future power. The issue is launch angle—he hits the ball on the ground too often, and until he learns to elevate, his ceiling remains capped. Still, the foundation is strong, and he’s one skill adjustment away from a breakout.
Ramirez makes excellent contact, striking out just 15.1% of the time, but he expands the zone too often—a common trait among high-contact hitters who believe they can barrel anything. He’s shown more aggression on the basepaths in 2025, stealing 28 bases in 38 attempts. He’s not a burner, but there’s enough speed to project 15+ steals annually if the approach holds.
Fantasy managers should treat Ramirez as a speculative add in deeper formats. He may not be a future star, but the contact, speed, and underlying power give him a path to fantasy relevance as a middle infielder with upside—especially if he learns to lift the ball and tighten his zone discipline.
