Cincinnati Reds Farm System: The Reds’ system is rich in athleticism and upside, but injuries, approach risk, and role uncertainty make 2026 a critical year for distinguishing between impact talent and developmental depth.
Summary
The Reds’ farm system features a mix of high-upside talent and volatile profiles, many of whom faced injury setbacks or developmental crossroads in 2025. Cam Collier and Edwin Arroyo both battled through physical limitations—Collier recovering from a thumb injury that sapped his power, and Arroyo struggling to regain form after shoulder surgery.
Several players made strides in refining their approach, including Carlos Jorge, Hector Rodriguez, and Mason Neville. Jorge improved his contact rate and remains a speed threat, though his swing changes may cap his power. Rodriguez continues to defy expectations with elite bat-to-ball skills despite a low walk rate, and Neville offers power-speed upside if he can tame the strikeouts. On the pitching side, Jose Franco and Connor Phillips flashed big stuff but remain inconsistent.
Overall, the Reds’ system is rich with athleticism and arm strength, but many players are still in the “prove it” phase—making 2026 a pivotal year for separating future contributors from fringe depth.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Sal Stewart – Elite zone control, developing power, and high OBP skills. Quietly tracking toward a near All-Star ceiling at 1B.
- Cam Collier – 25-HR upside with strong OBP traits. If the strikeouts stabilize and power returns, he’s a productive corner bat.
- Alfredo Duno – Plus power and defensive value. If the contact holds, he’s a Top 15 fantasy catcher in the making.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Steele Hall – 80-speed and emerging power. Contact risk is real, but the tools are loud and fantasy-relevant.
- Tyson Lewis – Explosive swing, elite speed, and raw power. Wide range of outcomes, but star upside if the approach improves.
- Rhett Lowder – Strong pitch mix led by a plus changeup. If the delivery stabilizes, he’s a solid SP3 with upside.
- Aaron Watson – Power arsenal with swing-and-miss traits. If the command comes, he’s a top-of-the-rotation candidate.
- Hector Rodriguez – Above-average power and speed. If the approach sharpens, he’s a 15/15 OF with fantasy juice.
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
To get the remaining tiers, become a Patreon member at patreon.com/prospect361.
2026 Player Profiles
1. Sal Stewart (1B/3B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B/1B
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: – Elite zone control, developing power, and high OBP skills. Quietly tracking toward a near All-Star ceiling at 1B.
Sal Stewart’s standout trait is elite strike zone control, consistently posting walk rates nearly equal to his strikeout rates and making well-above-average contact. He’s not a burner and won’t add much value on the bases, but the bat-to-ball skills give him a high floor. As he gets stronger, there’s reason to believe he’ll add loft and unlock more over-the-fence power—something that began to show after his promotion to Cincinnati.
Defensively, the Reds shifted him from third base to first in the big leagues, a move that better suits his physical profile and range. While he doesn’t offer plus speed or power today, the underlying metrics suggest the home run pop is coming, and the approach gives him a chance to hit for both average and OBP value.
Fantasy managers should treat Stewart as a quietly ascending corner bat with near All-Star ceiling. If the power continues to develop, he could become a cornerstone first baseman with strong OBP skills and sneaky impact—especially valuable in points formats and OBP leagues.
2. Alfredo Duno (C)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: Plus power and defensive value. If the contact holds, he’s a Top 15 fantasy catcher in the making.
After missing over three months in 2024 with a rib injury, Alfredo Duno returned to Low-A in 2025 and delivered—flashing power, solid contact, and strong on-base skills. He even ran a bit, swiping a few bags early in his career, though he’s unlikely to be a major stolen base threat. The bat is built around high-end exit velocities, and as he matures, that should translate into consistent in-game power.
The swing can get long, so like many catchers, Duno may settle into a .250–.260 hitter with 20+ homer upside. Defensively, he earns praise from pitchers for being easy to work with, and his plus arm should be a weapon against base stealers. He’s still developing, but the foundational tools—power, plate discipline, and defensive value—are all present.
Fantasy managers should treat Duno as a long-term cornerstone with Top 15 catcher upside. If the contact holds and the power continues to grow, he could become a foundational piece behind the plate for both the Reds and Dynasty formats.
3. Rhett Lowder (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: Strong pitch mix led by a plus changeup. If the delivery stabilizes, he’s a solid SP3 with upside.
Rhett Lowder’s 2025 season was largely lost to injury. He opened the year on the IL with a forearm strain, returned for just four outings, and then suffered an oblique injury that sidelined him for most of the summer. He managed a brief two-inning appearance in Triple-A late in the year, but the Reds had hoped for far more.
Lowder’s arsenal remains promising. His fastball averages 94 mph (touching 96) with excellent ride (2375 RPM), and he mixes in a sinker nearly as often—using it to generate weak contact, especially against arm-side hitters. His best secondary pitch is a fading changeup that tunnels beautifully off the fastball. The delivery, however, is inconsistent and lacks clean follow-through, raising questions about long-term command and strike quality.
Fantasy managers should treat Lowder as a long-term rotation piece with mid-rotation upside. Despite mechanical concerns, he’s consistently thrown strikes, and if the health holds and the delivery tightens, he could emerge as a reliable No. 3 starter with room for more.
4. Steele Hall (SS, #9)
- Highest Level: DNP ETA: 2029 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: 80-speed and emerging power. Contact risk is real, but the tools are loud and fantasy-relevant.
Selected No. 9 overall in 2025, Steele Hall signed for 12% under slot despite being one of the most athletic players in the class. He’s an 80-grade runner with above-average raw power that could grow into plus as he fills out. Hall punishes fastballs and brings the kind of physicality that jumps off the page—especially for fantasy managers chasing home run upside.
The swing is geared for damage, but there are real concerns about his ability to pick up spin—something that could stall his development against advanced pitching. That’s the key hurdle, and how he adjusts will determine whether he becomes a dynamic everyday player or a toolsy tease. The athleticism gives him margin, but the hit tool will need refinement.
Fantasy managers should treat Hall as a high-variance lottery ticket. The elite speed, emerging power, and loud tools make him a must-stash in deeper formats. If the contact comes around, he could be a star. If not, he still offers category juice and upside worth tracking.
5. Tyson Lewis (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2028 Fantasy Ceiling: Wide range of outcomes, including star upside
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: Explosive swing, elite speed, and raw power. Wide range of outcomes, but star upside if the approach improves.
Tyson Lewis is one of the most toolsy teenagers in the Reds system, reportedly posting exit velocities as high as 119 mph—though unverified by Statcast, the bat speed and raw power are undeniable. He’s also an 80-grade runner, giving him the potential to rack up stolen bases if he can improve his on-base skills.
The swing is explosive and visually impressive, but the hit tool remains a major question. Lewis strikes out at a high rate and doesn’t walk much, which limits his ability to tap into those elite physical tools. Everything he does is intense—he swings hard, runs hard, and plays with full-throttle energy—but that aggression needs refinement to translate into consistent production.
Fantasy managers should treat Lewis as a high-variance upside play. If the approach improves, he could become a dynamic power-speed threat. If not, he’s a raw athlete with loud tools and limited utility. Either way, he’s worth stashing in deeper formats while the Reds work to unlock the ceiling.
6. Cam Collier (3B/1B)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B/1B
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: 25-HR upside with strong OBP traits. If the strikeouts stabilize and power returns, he’s a productive corner bat.
Cam Collier missed the start of 2025 after tearing the UCL in his thumb during spring training, and the lingering effects were evident—his power dipped and exit velocity metrics lagged. That should be temporary, and as he regains strength in his hand, the power is expected to return. Collier remains highly selective at the plate, posting a 15% walk rate with a low chase rate, though that selectivity occasionally veers into passivity.
In Double-A, the approach caught up to him, resulting in a 28% strikeout rate. It’s a small sample, but if the whiffs persist, the risk of a three-true-outcome profile increases. Collier’s game is built around power, and there’s legitimate 25-homer upside paired with strong OBP skills. He lacks speed and may eventually shift to first base, which would limit his overall fantasy value—but the bat can still play.
Fantasy managers should treat Collier as a power/OBP corner bat with moderate volatility. A .250–.260 average with 25 home runs and a high OBP is well within reach, and while the ceiling isn’t elite, he still projects as a productive fantasy contributor if the strikeouts stabilize and the power returns.
7. Hector Rodriguez (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: Above-average power and speed. If the approach sharpens, he’s a 15/15 OF with fantasy juice.
Hector Rodriguez has long defied conventional expectations. Despite walking just 66 times over 289 games—a rate that averages out to once a week—he’s consistently made excellent contact. Many expected his approach to unravel at Double-A, but instead he improved his walk rate to 6.6%, still below average but a meaningful step forward.
Rodriguez continues to show above-average power and speed, and his contact skills remain intact. If everything clicks, there’s a realistic 15-homer, 15-steal ceiling here, driven by bat-to-ball ability and sneaky pop. However, the approach remains a concern, and until he proves he can consistently work counts and draw walks, the profile carries risk.
Fantasy managers should treat Rodriguez as a high-contact bat with fantasy-friendly tools and a narrow margin for error. He’s trending in the right direction, but plate discipline will determine whether he becomes a steady contributor or a low-OBP outfielder with capped value.
8. Chase Petty (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP or Closer
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: Loud stuff with deep arsenal. Command issues may push him to the bullpen, but impact potential remains.
Three weeks after turning 22, Chase Petty made his Major League debut—and it was a rough introduction. He gave up nine earned runs in 2.1 innings against the Cardinals, then walked six in a follow-up outing ten days later. He returned to Triple-A and pitched better, but the early data suggests he’s more likely a No. 4 starter than a future rotation anchor. The stuff is loud, but the execution remains inconsistent.
Petty’s fastball averages 96 mph and is classified as a four-seamer by BaseballSavant, though the arm-side run gives it more of a sinker profile. His best swing-and-miss pitch is a slider that also runs arm-side—an unusual trait that adds deception and misses bats. He mixes in a sweeper and a changeup, both of which flash above-average, giving him a deep arsenal. The issue is control: he struggles to locate consistently, and his delivery may always limit command.
Fantasy managers should treat Petty as a volatile arm with dual-path upside. If the control improves, he could settle into a mid-rotation role with strikeout juice. If not, a move to the bullpen could unlock a high-octane two-pitch profile with triple-digit velocity and late-inning impact.
9. Ricky Cabrera (SS)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle/Corner Infielder
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: Power-speed tools with pitch recognition concerns. High-variance infielder with fantasy upside.
Ricky Cabrera was one of the most highly touted international signings in the 2022 class, landing a $2.7 million bonus from the Reds. Over his first two seasons, he showcased blazing speed and exciting power, earning a High-A assignment to open 2025. But after struggling through 21 games, he hit the IL in early May and didn’t return, stalling what had been a promising trajectory.
Concerns about his ability to pick up spin resurfaced, and against better pitching, Cabrera looked out of sync—late on fastballs despite elite bat speed, a clear sign that his timing and pitch recognition were off. He had previously masked these issues, but they became more pronounced in 2025, raising questions about the maturity of his hit tool.
Fantasy managers should treat Cabrera as a high-variance prospect with power-speed appeal. The tools are loud, and there’s still considerable upside, but swing decisions and pitch tracking will determine whether he becomes an impact infielder or stalls in the upper minors. He’s a stash-worthy athlete with a wide range of outcomes.
10. Edwin Arroyo (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Middle Infielder with upside
- Last Updated: 10/07/2025
- Tools Summary: After shoulder surgery in 2024, Arroyo didn’t look good in 2025, showing very little power.
After missing all of 2024 following shoulder surgery, Edwin Arroyo never looked quite right throughout the 2025 season. His power was absent, and he posted a 49.5% ground ball rate, struggling to drive the ball with authority. After stealing 29 bases in 2023, he managed just 12 in 19 attempts this year, further highlighting the drop in impact.
Initially, it seemed like rust, but by midseason, the lack of progress became concerning. The good news is that Arroyo continues to make solid contact and remains an aggressive hitter—traits that suggest his hit tool is still intact. However, the absence of loud contact and diminished speed have forced a reevaluation of his ceiling.
Fantasy managers should treat Arroyo as a middle infielder with modest fantasy appeal. There’s still time for a rebound, but until the power returns and the speed stabilizes, he’s unlikely to offer consistent value in most formats.
