Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies Farm System: The Rockies system is toolsy but unreliable, with scattered upside, poor pitching development, and few prospects projecting as safe everyday contributors.

 

Summary

The Rockies’ player development track record remains one of the weakest in baseball, especially when it comes to pitching. Despite years of high draft picks and aggressive international spending, they’ve failed to produce a single reliable frontline starter—Jon Gray and Chase Dollander had the stuff, but neither fully broke through in Colorado. The organization’s inability to refine command, develop secondary pitches, or navigate the Coors Field environment has left a trail of stalled arms and diminished ceilings. Even polished college pitchers like Sean Sullivan and JB Middleton come with baked-in skepticism simply because of the uniform they wear.

On the position player side, there’s a bit more optimism, though it’s still cautious. Ethan Holliday and Charlie Condon headline the system with legitimate fantasy upside, while Cole Carrigg and Sterlin Thompson offer multi-category potential if they can lock down everyday roles. Roldy Brito and Robert Calaz bring speed and power, respectively, but both need physical growth and swing refinement.

Overall, it’s a system with scattered upside but little reliability, and fantasy managers should approach it with tempered expectations.

 

AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations

AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.

After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.

🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets

  • Ethan Holliday – Advanced bat, plus hit tool, developing power, solid athlete
  • Charlie Condon – Big power, strong hit tool, corner profile, mature approach
  • Cole Carrigg – Versatile defender, plus speed, contact skills, sneaky power upside

🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets

  • Zac Veen – Plus runner, raw power, needs health and swing refinement
  • Sterlin Thompson – Balanced hit/power, corner bat, solid contact, and zone control
  • Roc Riggio – High-energy bat, sneaky pop, aggressive approach, 2B-only profile
  • Robert Calaz – Loud power, raw hit tool, corner-only, needs reps
  • Roldy Brito – Plus speed, contact skills, growing frame, strike zone control
  • Max Belyeu – Big power, swing-and-miss risk, needs mechanical cleanup

🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets

To see the reset of the tiers, become a Patreon subscriber at Patreon.com/prospect361.

2026 Player Profiles

1. Ethan Holliday (SS, #4)

  • Highest Level:  Low-A ETA: 2028-29 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 15 SS/3B or Top 30 OF
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Advanced bat, plus hit tool, developing power, solid athlete

Ethan Holliday entered pro ball with considerable fanfare, selected fourth overall by the Rockies in 2024 but commanding the highest bonus in the class at $9 million. The Boras camp sees him as a hybrid of his brother Jackson and father Matt—a blend of advanced feel and physicality. That comp isn’t just nostalgic; it’s a nod to Holliday’s mature approach and athletic frame, which already hints at future impact. At 6-foot-4, he’s long-levered with raw power and a polished understanding of the zone, traits that give him a chance to be a middle-of-the-order fixture if the hit tool holds.

There’s some risk inherent in the profile, particularly regarding contact. Holliday’s early pro sample—two homers but a 38% strikeout rate over 17 games—underscores the challenge of managing length through the zone. He’s an above-average runner now, but as he fills out, the physical resemblance to Matt may deepen while the speed regresses slightly. The swing-and-miss could be the separator between a solid regular and a perennial All-Star, but the foundational traits are strong enough to bet on developmental gains.

From a fantasy perspective, Holliday is one of the few Rockies prospects who can break the “don’t roster” rule. His upside in OBP formats is especially appealing given the zone control, and the power-speed combo gives him a shot at five-category relevance. The strikeout rate is a red flag, and Coors Field development paths are notoriously rocky, but Holliday’s pedigree and ceiling make him a top-tier FYPD target. Even skeptics may find themselves bending the rules for this one.

 

2. Charlie Condon (OF)

  • Highest Level:  Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 40 OF with upside
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Big power, strong hit tool, corner profile, mature approach

Charlie Condon’s amateur résumé is as loud as they come. After obliterating SEC pitching with a .433/.536/1.009 slash line and 37 home runs, he took home the Golden Spikes Award as the top amateur player in the country. That kind of production made him a marquee name heading into the draft, but his transition to pro ball has been rocky. In his 2024 debut with Spokane, he posted a .180/.248/.270 line and struck out 31% of the time. A fractured left wrist in March further delayed his development, keeping him off the field until early May.

Condon’s calling card is plus raw power, and it’s easy to dream on the damage he could do if the hit tool clicks. But there’s real swing-and-miss here—he struggles to pick up spin, and when he’s off, he’s way off. That said, he’s capable of punishing mistakes, including sliders, and his walk rates have remained strong from college into pro ball. At 6-foot-5, his size contributes to the whiff risk, and while he’s not quite a three-true-outcome hitter yet, the trajectory is nudging in that direction.

For fantasy purposes, Condon profiles as a potential Top 40 outfielder with 30+ homer upside. The batting average may be a liability, but his OBP should run about 100 points higher, making him more viable in formats that reward plate discipline. Wrist injuries can temporarily sap power, so 2025 may be more about regaining rhythm than breakout production. Long-term, he’s a classic power-over-hit bet with enough walks to stay relevant even through slumps.

 

3. Cole Carrigg (OF)

  • Highest Level:  Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 45 OF with contact risk
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Versatile defender, plus speed, contact skills, sneaky power upside

Cole Carrigg’s 2025 campaign has been a revealing one, as Double-A exposed some underlying swing decisions that were less apparent at lower levels. While he continues to flash power and speed—traits that keep evaluators and fantasy managers intrigued—his strikeout rate has climbed, and his pitch recognition has regressed. The chase rate ticked up notably as he faced more advanced breaking balls, and his batting average on those offerings has dipped, suggesting he’s not yet tracking spin effectively.

Despite the contact concerns, Carrigg remains a dynamic athlete. He’s a double-plus runner with defensive versatility and enough raw power to impact games even when the bat isn’t fully clicking. The issue is approach: he expands the zone too often, and while that’s fixable, the Rockies haven’t shown much success developing hitters out of that pattern. There’s hope that external coaching or offseason work can help him refine his swing decisions, but it’s a critical area to monitor.

Fantasy-wise, Carrigg offers the kind of power-speed blend that is incredibly appealing if the hit tool cooperates. He’s likely to struggle with batting average—think .240–.260 range—but his stolen base upside and occasional pop make him a viable stash in deeper formats. OBP leagues may offer a better fit if he can maintain walk rates, but until the pitch recognition improves, he’s more of a speculative asset than a locked-in contributor.

 

4. Zac Veen (OF)

  • Highest Level:  Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 45 OF
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Plus runner, raw power, needs health and swing refinement

Zac Veen’s journey through the upper minors and into Colorado has been anything but linear, but the flashes of upside remain enticing. Despite multiple stints on the IL, he earned a big-league look earlier this season, though the results were underwhelming. His lone standout moment—a 109.2 MPH batted ball—showed the raw power is still there, and his sprint speed ranked in the 75th percentile. Beyond that, his brief MLB stint offered little clarity, reinforcing the need for more seasoning.

Back in Triple-A, Veen reminded evaluators why he’s still a name to track. He posted a .289/.359/.464 line with 11 homers and 15 steals, showcasing the power-speed blend that made him a first-round pick. However, the approach remains a work in progress. A 30% chase rate is concerning, especially when paired with aggressive swing decisions that blur the line between zone discipline and over-eagerness. The good news: his in-zone contact is strong, and he continues to draw walks, suggesting there’s a foundation to build on if he can tighten his pitch selection.

For fantasy managers, Veen still profiles as a potential 20-20 contributor with room for more on the stolen base side. The batting average may be volatile due to the swing decisions and strikeout risk, but his athleticism and walk rates offer a path to relevance in OBP formats. He’s not a plug-and-play asset yet, but in deeper leagues or dynasty setups, the upside is worth holding through the growing pains.

 

5. Sterlin Thompson (OF)

  • Highest Level:  Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 60 OF
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Balanced hit/power, corner bat, solid contact, and zone control

Sterlin Thompson rebounded statistically in 2025 after a rough Double-A stint the year prior, spending the full season in Triple-A and showing improved surface-level production. But context matters: Hartford’s park and the Eastern League lean pitcher-friendly, while Colorado Springs is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minors. That shift in setting raises questions about whether Thompson truly made adjustments or simply benefited from the conditions. While the numbers suggest progress, the underlying approach still carries red flags.

Thompson’s profile remains that of a contact-oriented bat with average exit velocities and modest athleticism. He’s capable of making consistent contact, but his aggressive nature at the plate limits his OBP ceiling and could lead to exploitable swing decisions at the next level. The power grades out in the 15–18 homer range, and he’s an average runner who could chip in 12–15 steals. There’s still a path to being a full-time regular, but it’s narrow—likely dependent on platoon usage or favorable park splits.

Fantasy-wise, Thompson projects as a 15-15 contributor with a .260–.270 average, which has utility in deeper formats or as a bench bat in daily leagues. Coors Field could inflate his counting stats, but the lack of standout tools and OBP limitations cap his ceiling.

 

6. Roc Riggio (2B)

  • Highest Level:  Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling:  Middle Infielder
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: High-energy bat, sneaky pop, aggressive approach, 2B-only profile

Roc Riggio brings an energetic, grinder-style profile to the Rockies system after being drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of 2023. A standout at Oklahoma State, Riggio compensates for his modest frame with explosive bat speed and strong wrists that help him generate surprising power. Despite his size, he’s capable of driving the ball with authority, and his 4.34 home-to-first time suggests 55–60 grade speed—enough to project double-digit steals annually. He plays with intensity and confidence, traits that often translate well across levels.

The swing is aggressive, and that aggression leads to zone expansion and elevated strikeout risk. Riggio doesn’t get cheated, and while that can produce loud contact, it also opens the door to exploitable holes. Still, his motor and feel for the game give him a real shot at a Major League role. The Rockies haven’t maximized development outcomes in recent years, which makes the trade a bit concerning, but Riggio’s makeup and tools offer hope that he can rise above organizational inertia.

Fantasy-wise, Riggio projects as a useful middle infielder in deeper formats, with 12–15 homer pop, 8–10 steals, and a .250–.260 average. He’s unlikely to be a star, but he could be a steady contributor with enough juice to fill out a roster. OBP formats may be trickier due to the swing decisions, but in batting average leagues, he’s a name to track as he climbs toward Colorado.

 

7. Robert Calaz (OF)

  • Highest Level:  Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 60 OF
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Loud power, raw hit tool, corner-only, needs reps

Robert Calaz is one of the most physically advanced teenage bats in the Rockies system, with elite bat speed and exit velocities that already hint at 30-home-run potential. He’s a big, strong kid who swings with intent, and when he connects, the ball jumps. That kind of raw power is rare at his age, and it’s easy to dream on the upside. But the swing is geared for damage, not precision, and the mechanics suggest that swing-and-miss will be a persistent part of his game.

In Low-A, Calaz posted a 26% strikeout rate and walked just 8.7% of the time, with a chase-heavy approach that limits his ability to adjust. He’s an average runner now, but as he matures physically, stolen bases are unlikely to be a meaningful part of his profile. The question is whether he’ll hit enough to unlock the power. There’s a real chance he becomes a one-dimensional slugger if the approach doesn’t tighten, and the Rockies’ track record with refining hitters doesn’t inspire much confidence.

From a fantasy lens, Calaz is a classic boom-or-bust power prospect. If he hits, he could be a 30-homer bat with middle-of-the-order upside. But the hit tool risk is substantial, and without OBP gains or speed, he may struggle to offer value outside of home runs. Dynasty managers should treat him as a long-term lottery ticket—worth stashing in deeper formats, but with a wide range of outcomes and a lower floor than most power-first profiles.

 

8. Roldy Brito (OF)

  • Highest Level:  Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 60 OF with upside
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: He has speed plus solid understanding of the strike zone. He needs to get stronger to generate enough power to become a full-time regular.

Roldy Brito made a strong first impression in his stateside debut after signing with the Rockies for $420,000 in 2024. Following a productive DSL stint, he transitioned seamlessly to the Arizona Complex League, slashing .368/.445/.555 and continuing to hit after a promotion to Low-A. While his .420 BABIP suggests some statistical inflation, Brito’s underlying skills—particularly his strike zone control (19% K-rate, 10.2% BB-rate) and plus speed (35 stolen bases)—point to a well-rounded offensive foundation.

Physically, Brito still has room to grow. His current frame projects to add strength, which could elevate his power output beyond gap-to-gap doubles. Even without major gains, he’s already showing the ability to impact games with his legs and bat-to-ball skills. The Rockies will likely start him back in Low-A to open 2026, but his performance could earn him a midseason bump to High-A. Given that he won’t turn 19 until April, there’s ample time for development and refinement.

For fantasy managers, Brito is a name to file away in deeper dynasty formats. The speed is real, and if the power ticks up with added strength, he could become a category contributor across the board. His batting average should hold up thanks to contact skills, though OBP formats may offer even more value given his walk rates. He’s not a finished product, but the early returns suggest a potential breakout candidate as he climbs the ladder.

 

9. Sean Sullivan (LHP)

  • Highest Level:  Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling:  Top 70 SP with upside
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Double-plus changeup, command lefty, backend starter profile

Sean Sullivan was the Rockies’ second-round pick in 2023, signed for slot value at $1.7 million, and has quickly emerged as one of their most polished arms. While he lacks premium velocity—sitting in the 89–92 MPH range—he compensates with command and a double-plus changeup that keeps hitters off balance. His 2025 campaign was quietly excellent, posting a 2.94 ERA across 20 starts, primarily in Double-A, with a strikeout per inning and just over two walks per nine. In most organizations, that profile would suggest mid-rotation upside, especially from the left side.

But Colorado’s pitching environment forces a recalibration. The lack of a dominant fastball and the thin air at Coors Field make it hard to project Sullivan as more than a back-end starter. His changeup could play well at altitude, but without a true swing-and-miss secondary or velocity to challenge hitters up in the zone, the margin for error is slim. The Rockies’ track record with pitching development—Jon Gray and Chase Dollander included—adds another layer of skepticism, even if Sullivan’s polish gives him a chance to outperform expectations.

Fantasy-wise, Sullivan is a tough hold. In deeper dynasty formats, he’s worth monitoring for his strike-throwing and potential volume, but the upside is capped by park factors and arsenal limitations. If he does carve out a role, think SP5 with occasional streaming value in road starts. Betting on Rockies pitchers is always risky, but Sullivan’s command and changeup give him a faint glimmer of hope in an otherwise unforgiving setting.

 

10. Max Belyeu (OF, #74)

  • Highest Level:  High-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 OF with upside
  • Last Updated: 12/16/2025
  • Tools Summary: Big power, swing-and-miss risk, needs mechanical cleanup

Max Belyeu entered pro ball with a strong collegiate track record, having played three years at Texas and flashing first-round potential during a standout sophomore campaign (.329/.423/.667, 18 HR). A thumb injury early in his junior year derailed his momentum and dropped him to the Rockies in the competitive second round. Despite the setback, his power upside remained intact, and Colorado challenged him with a High-A assignment to open his career.

The early returns were rough: Belyeu hit just .150 with a 36% strikeout rate over 21 games, though he did manage four home runs. His batted-ball profile—45% flyballs and 43% grounders—suggests a swing geared for lift but lacking consistent barrel control. He was clearly selling out for power, often at the expense of contact quality. The swing mechanics need refinement, and his approach will require tightening to avoid becoming overly one-dimensional. Still, the raw power is evident, and his college pedigree gives him a foundation to build on.

For fantasy managers, Belyeu is a classic mid-round FYPD gamble. The power is real, and if he can clean up the swing path and reduce chase, there’s a path to 20+ homers. Batting average risk is high, and OBP formats may offer a better fit if he can leverage his college walk rates. He’s not a plug-and-play prospect, but in deeper dynasty leagues, he’s worth a stash for those willing to bet on power development and mechanical gains.

 

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