Philadelphia Phillies Farm System: The Phillies system blends impact talent with breakout volatility, led by Aidan Miller’s advanced bat and Andrew Painter’s ace-level upside. Depth pieces like Aroon Escobar, Dante Nori, and Griffin Burkholder offer multi-category potential, while international names and athletic flyers round out a system built for Dynasty patience.
Summary
The Phillies system blends high-end talent with breakout volatility, anchored by a pair of cornerstone fantasy assets in Aidan Miller and Andrew Painter. Miller’s advanced bat, zone control, and power trajectory make him the system’s safest offensive piece, while Painter—despite post-TJ uncertainty—still offers ace upside with three plus pitches and physical traits that can anchor a rotation. Justin Crawford rounds out the top group with elite speed and improving contact, giving him multi-category appeal in formats that reward stolen bases.
Beyond the headliners, the system features a wave of toolsy upside plays and developmental arms. Dante Nori and Gabriel Rincones offer power/speed blends with corner-outfield paths, while Aroon Escobar’s OBP floor and bat speed suggest breakout potential. Gage Wood and Griffin Burkholder bring swing-and-miss traits on the mound, with Wood flashing closer upside and Burkholder trending toward a power breakout.
It’s a system with impact talent up top, breakout candidates in the middle, and lean, projectable upside at the base—well-suited for Dynasty formats that reward patience and scouting nuance.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Aidan Miller – Advanced bat with OBP, power, and Double-A success
- Andrew Painter – Ace upside with elite stuff, post-TJ rebound underway
- Justin Crawford – 30+ SB threat with improving contact and bat path
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Dante Nori – Loud tools, 20–30 upside, trending toward breakout
- Gabriel Rincones – Power/speed blend with corner OF path and lift
- Aroon Escobar – OBP machine with bat speed and emerging power
- Gage Wood – High-K arm with closer traits or SP upside
- Griffin Burkholder – Bat speed, exit velo, and breakout trajectory
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
To see the reset of the tiers, become a Patreon subscriber at Patreon.com/prospect361.
2026 Player Profiles
1. Aidan Miller (SS)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS or 3B
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: Advanced bat with OBP, power, and Double-A success.
Drafted 27th overall in 2023, Aidan Miller entered pro ball with a reputation for bat speed, plate discipline, and advanced offensive instincts. The Phillies have been aggressive with his assignments, pushing him to Double-A to open 2025 as one of the youngest players in the league. He held his own, showing improved power and more speed than expected, though swing-and-miss crept in as he faced upper-level pitching. His late-season surge—batting .355 with an equal number of walks and strikeouts—reinforced his ability to adjust and compete.
Defensively, Miller has only played shortstop, but with Trea Turner locked in at the big-league level, a transition to third base is expected to begin in the Fall League and continue into early 2026. His bat speed and high BABIP profile suggest he’ll settle into a .260 average with a .330 OBP, though he’s unlikely to be a .300 hitter. The Phillies are expected to assign him to Triple-A next spring, with a potential call-up to Philadelphia after June depending on performance and roster needs.
Fantasy managers should view Miller as a high-floor, multi-category contributor with upside tied to contact gains. He’s unlikely to be a stolen base asset, but 20+ homers with solid OBP and run production are within reach. If the swing-and-miss stabilizes, he could emerge as a top-10 third baseman in OBP formats by 2027. There’s some volatility, but the bat speed and approach give him a strong foundation.
2. Andrew Painter (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: Ace upside with elite stuff, post-TJ rebound underway.
Drafted 13th overall in 2021, Andrew Painter entered pro ball with ace-level buzz and quickly backed it up with dominant early returns. After missing two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery, the Phillies took a more measured approach in 2025, allowing him to build innings and regain feel. He won’t turn 23 until April, and the long view still matters. Painter’s fastball averaged 96 MPH and touched 98, while his curveball remained his best weapon, generating a 30% whiff rate. The changeup flashes but often comes in too firm, limiting its effectiveness against lefties.
Despite throwing strikes, Painter’s command was inconsistent, and he got hit hard—allowing over a hit per inning and 1.5 HR/9. Left-handed hitters posted an .857 OPS against him, exposing the need for better velocity separation and location on the changeup. Still, the raw ingredients are intact: a 6-foot-7 frame, three plus pitches, and the ability to miss bats. The challenge now is refining pitch location and sequencing while building back stamina and confidence.
Fantasy managers should treat Painter as a long-term investment with high strikeout upside. The arsenal is built for whiffs, and if the changeup improves, he could neutralize platoon splits and grow into a true top-of-the-rotation starter. There’s risk tied to health and command, but the ceiling remains one of the highest among pitching prospects in baseball.
3. Justin Crawford (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 40 OF with fourth-outfielder risk
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: 30+ SB threat with improving contact and bat path
Drafted in the first round in 2022, Justin Crawford entered pro ball with elite athleticism and 80-grade speed, drawing natural comparisons to his father, Carl. He spent the entire 2025 season in Triple-A at just 21 years old, showcasing impressive bat speed and a solid feel for contact. Despite repeated calls for him to add strength, the physical gains haven’t materialized, and the power remains elusive.
Crawford expanded the strike zone more than in previous years, and while his in-zone contact remains strong, his 59% ground ball rate continues to suppress any meaningful slugging output. He’s a dynamic runner who could steal 50–60 bases with full-time reps, but until he starts driving the ball in the air with authority, the offensive ceiling is capped. The raw ingredients are there, but the swing path and launch profile need a serious overhaul.
Fantasy managers should treat Crawford as a speed-first asset with limited category depth until further notice. If he adds even modest power—doubles and 5–10 home runs annually—he could become a fantasy star. But for now, he’s a projection play, and the breakout won’t come until the swing changes do.
4. Aroon Escobar (3B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 3B
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: OBP machine with bat speed and emerging power.
Signed out of Venezuela for $450,000 in 2022, Aroon Escobar took time to find his footing, posting modest numbers in the DSL before breaking out in 2024. A strong showing in the Complex League earned him a Low-A assignment to open 2025, and he responded with a .270/.361/.413 slash line across 120 games between Low-A and High-A. His contact skills have always stood out, and this season he paired them with emerging power—posting a 109 MPH max exit velocity and a 40% hard-hit rate.
Escobar’s strikeout rate ticked up slightly, but he continued to deliver quality at-bats and showed improved zone awareness. His 15 home runs and 24 stolen bases hint at multi-category upside, though his 55–60 grade speed may regress as he fills out physically. The Phillies promoted him to High-A in August, and he held his own, suggesting he could open 2026 in Double-A with a chance to climb quickly if the power continues to trend.
Fantasy managers should treat Escobar as a high-contact bat with growing pop and sneaky OBP value. If the power holds and the speed remains playable, he could develop into a 20–25 HR contributor with a .270+ average and double-digit steals. There’s still projection left, but the foundation is strong and trending in the right direction.
5. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 OF with upside
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: Power/speed blend with corner OF path and lift.
Drafted in the third round in 2022, Gabriel Rincones has steadily climbed the ladder and now sits on the doorstep of his Major League debut. Known for his above-average power, Rincones posted exit velocities up to 109 MPH and made key swing adjustments in 2025 that improved his strikeout rate without sacrificing lift or damage. Historically a fly-ball-heavy hitter, he’s now pairing that trait with better zone coverage and more consistent contact.
While his sprint speed grades out slightly below average, Rincones has consistently posted low double-digit stolen base totals and could swipe 10–15 bags early in his career. There’s some chase in his approach, but he offsets it with excellent in-zone contact skills and a strong understanding of his damage zones. The Phillies have been pleased with his offensive growth, and he looks ready to contribute in 2026.
Fantasy managers should view Rincones as a well-rounded bat with category depth. He projects for 18–22 home runs, 8–10 stolen bases, and solid OBP production—especially in formats that reward fly-ball power and plate discipline. He’s not flashy, but he’s trending toward a steady, fantasy-relevant contributor with everyday upside.
6. Griffin Burkholder (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027-28 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: Bat speed, exit velo, and breakout trajectory.
Drafted in the second round in 2025 and signed for $2.49 million—nearly double slot value—Griffin Burkholder fits the Phillies’ mold: raw, toolsy, and loaded with upside. With potential 70-grade speed and power, he brings an athletic profile that can change games. Assigned to Low-A to begin his pro career, Burkholder missed time early with a hamstring injury, then reinjured it midseason and was shut down. In between setbacks, he flashed his power with multiple batted balls exceeding 106 MPH.
The hit tool showed expected growing pains, including a 29% strikeout rate and trouble recognizing spin—especially breaking balls. His chase tendencies were exposed, and the missed reps only compounded the developmental gap. While he didn’t get to showcase his speed due to injury, the raw tools remain intact. Given the lost time and swing refinement needed, he’s likely to return to Low-A in 2026, with a slower, more deliberate path through the system.
Fantasy managers should treat Burkholder as a long-term upside stash. If the hit tool improves even modestly, the power/speed combo could produce 25+ homers and 20+ steals annually. But until the contact stabilizes and the swing decisions improve, he’s a tools-first projection play with volatility baked in. Let the tools breathe—this one’s a slow burn.
7. Dante Nori (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2028 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF with risk
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: Loud tools, 20–30 upside, trending toward breakout.
Drafted at the end of the first round in 2024, Dante Nori slipped not because of his tools, but due to questions about his offensive ceiling. He’s an 80-grade runner with elite range in center field, and the defensive value is already evident. The concern lies in his frame and strength—he’s not physically imposing, and power may never be a core part of his profile. Still, the Phillies bet on athleticism and projection, and Nori’s contact ability gives him a foundation to build on.
The key developmental question is whether Nori can add enough strength to produce consistent doubles-power. If not, he starts to resemble Chandler Simpson—a speed-first outfielder with limited offensive impact. His bat-to-ball skills are solid, and he’s shown flashes of zone control, but the lack of impact contact limits his ceiling. Physical development will be the swing factor, and the Phillies are likely to take a patient approach as he matures.
Fantasy managers should treat Nori as a projection gamble with elite speed and defensive stability. If the power ticks up even modestly, he could return significant value as a leadoff-type with 30+ steal upside. But the risk is real—there’s just as much chance he tops out as a fourth outfielder. For now, he’s a tools-first stash with athletic traits worth betting on.
8. Gage Wood (RHP, #26)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP or Reliever
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: High-K arm with closer traits or SP upside.
Drafted 26th overall in 2025, Gage Wood made national headlines after throwing a no-hitter in the College World Series, striking out 19 in a 119-pitch masterpiece. Despite a shoulder injury that limited him to just 10 starts, the Phillies saw enough to invest heavily in his upside. His fastball sits 94–96 MPH and touches 97 with excellent ride, while his curveball grades out as a 60 and generates consistent swing-and-miss. He doesn’t yet feature a changeup, and developing one—or a splitter—will be key to sticking in a rotation role.
Wood pounds the strike zone with advanced control, walking fewer than two batters per nine innings across 2024 and 2025. The shoulder injury raises durability questions, but the command and pitch quality give him a strong foundation. At 6-foot-1, he draws physical comps to Jack Leiter, though the hope is that Wood can pair his stuff with more consistent location and a deeper arsenal. The Phillies are likely to take a cautious approach early in 2026, focusing on health and pitch development.
Fantasy managers should treat Wood as a high-floor arm with mid-rotation upside. If the third pitch comes and the shoulder holds up, he could grow into a strikeout-heavy starter with strong WHIP and win potential. The fallback is a high-leverage reliever with elite control and two plus pitches. Either way, the ingredients are here—now it’s about staying on the mound and letting the arsenal mature.
9. Jean Cabrera (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 60 SP or Reliever
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: Starter traits, flashes command, needs third pitch.
Signed out of Venezuela in 2020, Jean Cabrera doesn’t have prototypical starter size at 6 feet tall, but his arsenal is quietly impressive. His fastball sits 94–95 MPH and touches 97 with excellent ride through the zone, consistently generating carry at 2400–2450 RPM. It pairs well with his best secondary offering—a plus-grade changeup that misses bats and neutralizes left-handed hitters. The slider is still developing, showing flashes but lacking consistency.
Cabrera’s control regressed in 2025, walking over four batters per nine innings, but his delivery remains intact and free of mechanical red flags. The Phillies have kept him in a starter’s role, though the lack of a reliable third pitch and wavering command leave his long-term role in question. If the slider tightens and the walk rate improves, he has the stuff to stick in a rotation. If not, his fastball-changeup combo could play up in shorter stints, especially against lefty-heavy lineups.
Fantasy managers should treat Cabrera as a deep-league stash with role-dependent upside. In a rotation, he could offer strikeouts and decent ratios with streamer appeal. In relief, he might grow into a multi-inning weapon with sneaky value in holds formats. Either way, he’s tracking toward a big-league role, and the arsenal gives him a shot to contribute.
10. Moises Chace (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP or Closer
- Last Updated: 11/18/2025
- Tools Summary: Swing-and-miss stuff, relief floor, starter ceiling.
Signed out of Venezuela in 2019, Moises Chace looked sharp in his first six starts of 2025 before velocity issues surfaced, ultimately leading to an elbow sprain and Tommy John surgery. He’s expected to miss most of the 2026 season, with a possible return in August or a stint in the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, Chace features a fastball that touches 98 MPH with excellent ride and inverted vertical metrics that generate consistent swing-and-miss. His slider is a legitimate plus pitch with whiff rates projected north of 30%.
The changeup remains underdeveloped, and his control continues to grade out below average. Chace struggles to repeat his delivery, and the lack of a reliable third pitch has led many to project him as a future reliever. That said, his fastball has historically been effective against glove-side hitters, and if he sharpens his command, he could still stick in a rotation. The Phillies will likely take a cautious approach post-surgery, focusing on health and pitch efficiency.
Fantasy managers should treat Chace as a high-risk, high-reward stash. If the command improves and the velocity returns, he has starter upside with strikeout potential. If not, he could be electric in short bursts out of the bullpen, offering value in holds formats or as a speculative saves play. The ceiling remains intriguing—but the path is narrow.
