San Diego Padres Farm system: The Padres system is extremely shallow, with Ethan Salas standing as its lone potential fantasy star.
Summary
The Padres system is thin overall, with Ethan Salas standing alone as a potential fantasy cornerstone. Behind him, Kruz Schoolcraft offers starter traits with explosive stuff and developmental runway, while Kash Mayfield and Miguel Mendez bring mid-rotation or late-inning upside depending on how their control and durability hold up
Beyond that, the system drops off quickly. Ty Harvey and Jorge Quintana are raw projection plays with athleticism and tools, but neither has proven they can hit pro pitching yet. Tucker Musgrove and Victor Lizarraga offer backend rotation or bullpen depth, while Tirso Ornelas and Ryan Wideman are fringe bats who need ideal context to matter in fantasy.
This is one of the shallowest systems in baseball from a fantasy standpoint. Outside of Salas, few players project as impact assets, and most are deep-league stashes or bullpen hopefuls. Dynasty managers should treat this group as a place to find speculative arms—not foundational pieces.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Ethan Salas – Top 15 fantasy catcher ceiling despite injury setbacks and aggressive timeline
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Kruz Schoolcraft – Long-term project with explosive stuff and starter traits
- Kash Mayfield – Mid-rotation upside with extreme risk tied to delivery and control
🥉 Tier 3: Outside of the Impact/Everyday Targets
To see the reset of the tiers, become a Patreon subscriber at Patreon.com/prospect361.
2026 Player Profiles
1. Ethan Salas (C)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026-27 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Solid understanding of the strike zone with the potential to add plus power and stay behind the plate. He missed most of the season due to a stress reaction in his back.
Salas appeared in just 10 games before a stress reaction in his back placed him on the IL. The initial recovery estimate was two months, but slow healing stretched into a lost season. It’s a frustrating development for a player whose reputation has been built more on projection than production. In 2024, at age 18, he hit just .206 with a .311 slugging percentage in High-A, reinforcing the gap between tools and stat line.
From a scouting lens, the swing is smooth, the bat speed is excellent, and the body projects for 20–25 homer power as he fills out. Defensively, he’s advanced for his age, and the overall package still screams future big leaguer. But the Padres’ aggressive timeline has made it hard for Salas to settle in and build momentum. He’s no longer the youngest player in the league, and the missed reps matter.
I’m still bullish long-term and haven’t moved off a ceiling of a fantasy Top 15 starting catcher. The tools are intact, and the upside remains high. But the risk has increased—both due to injury and the pressure of accelerated development. Fantasy managers should stay patient, but recalibrate expectations for a longer runway.
2. Kruz Schoolcraft (LHP, #25)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2029+ Fantasy Ceiling: Wide variance, including top-of-the-rotation ceiling.
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Long-term project with explosive stuff and starter traits
Schoolcraft was the Padres’ first-round pick in 2025 (No. 25 overall), and he’s a player development dream: 6-foot-8, athletic, and already touching the upper 90s. The delivery is raw—long limbs, scattered mechanics—but the arm speed and physicality suggest big upside once it all syncs. He’s the kind of prep arm that could explode with the right tweaks.
While most orgs kept their high school pitchers at the complex, the Padres pushed Schoolcraft to Low-A for a brief debut. It was predictably messy: nine batters faced, four strikeouts, three walks, one hit. The stuff is loud, but the command is nowhere near ready. That’s fine for now—he’s a long-term project with real starter traits if the control comes.
For fantasy managers with deep benches and long timelines, Schoolcraft is a worthy stash. But the risk is real: he may never get past Double-A, and the Padres have a habit of trading their best young talent. If he’s dealt to a less development-savvy org, the path gets murkier. Bottom line—know your parameters and be ready to wait.
3. Kash Mayfield (LHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027+ Fantasy Ceiling: Top 50 SP with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Mid-rotation upside with extreme risk tied to delivery and control
Mayfield was the Padres’ first-round pick in 2024 and finally debuted in 2025. He reportedly touched the upper 90s in high school, but has sat in the mid-90s (T96) as a pro. His changeup is excellent—heavy fade, well-tunneled off the fastball—and it’s already giving righties fits (.271 SLG). The slider is still developing, but thanks to his crossfire delivery, lefties struggle to pick it up, making it more effective than it looks.
The delivery itself is a concern—lots of effort, some recoil, and potential for arm issues down the line. I expected control problems, but he held his own with a 4.2 BB/9. That’s not great, but it’s manageable for a young arm with this kind of stuff. The question is whether the command holds up as he climbs the ladder and faces more advanced hitters.
I have plenty of questions about Mayfield, but the Padres have earned some benefit of the doubt with how they draft and develop. The stuff is good enough to project mid-rotation upside, but I’m tagging him with an extreme risk caveat. If the delivery holds and the control improves, he could be a breakout. If not, the volatility will show up fast.
4. Ty Harvey (C, #160)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2029+ Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher with extreme risk
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Loud tools, raw bat; high school catcher with breakout potential
Harvey was the Padres’ fifth-round pick in 2025, but signed for over $1 million above slot—essentially mid-second-round money. He turned heads at the draft combine with elite bat speed and loud contact, routinely hitting balls over 105 MPH and maxing out at 115. It was surprising he fell that far, but the Padres pounced and made the deal.
He’s athletic, has excellent bat speed, and projects for future power with a chance to steal a few bases early in his career. That said, his pro debut was rough: a .174 average and 12 strikeouts in 30 plate appearances. It’s a small sample, but it confirms he’s raw and will need time to adjust to pro pitching.
If you’re investing in Harvey, you’re betting the Padres nailed the projection and can develop him into a full-time regular. That’s a decent bet given their track record, but far from guaranteed. High school catchers are risky FYPD picks, but in deep Dynasty formats (25+ minor leaguers), he’s worth a stash. The upside is real if the hit tool comes around.
5. Jorge Quintana (SS)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2028-29 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 20 SS with risk
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Athletic, zone-aware outfielder with power-speed upside
Quintana was a notable international signing by the Brewers in 2024, landing a $1.7 million bonus—more than Jesus Made or Luis Pena in the same class. That kind of investment doesn’t always reflect talent, but Quintana has held his own. He was traded to the Padres at the 2025 deadline, giving San Diego another long-term upside bat to develop.
He’s got above-average speed and a projectable 6-foot-2 frame that should add power over time. In the Arizona Complex League, he slashed .264/.349/.403 as an 18-year-old, showing solid zone control and athleticism. After the trade, he struggled in Low-A (.191 AVG, 34% K rate in 101 PA), but that’s not unusual for a teenager adjusting midseason. He’ll likely return to Low-A in 2026 and won’t turn 19 until April.
The ceiling is high, but so is the risk. Quintana controls the zone well and has the physical tools to grow into a power-speed threat. If the hit tool stabilizes, he could jump tiers quickly. He’s someone to monitor closely—especially since the Padres chose to invest. In deep leagues, he’s a projection play worth tracking.
6. Tucker Musgrove (RHP)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2027 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Triple-digit fastball and spin-heavy arsenal; relief path likely
Musgrove was a seventh-round pick in 2023 and finally debuted in 2025 after recovering from Tommy John surgery. It’s a big arm—he can touch triple digits with the fastball and pairs it with a sharp slider and cutter, all thrown with heavy spin. His changeup is still developing, and he’s using a sinker to attack glove-side hitters, giving him a varied arsenal.
He logged just 20 innings in Low-A during the regular season, plus a few more in the Arizona Fall League. At 23, time is a factor, and the Padres may shift him to the bullpen to accelerate his path. If he throws enough strikes, the stuff is loud enough to profile as a dominant late-inning reliever. The command is the key variable.
Fantasy managers should keep Musgrove on their radar. He’s not a priority add yet, but the arm talent is real, and the Padres have incentive to fast-track him. I’ve seen enough to include him on my Top 500 list (in the 400s), and if the control clicks, he could rise quickly.
7. Bradgley Rodriguez (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Closer ceiling with elite velocity and swing-and-miss changeup
Rodriguez made his MLB debut in 2025 and looked impressive out of the Padres’ bullpen. His four-seamer and sinker both sit 98–99 MPH and can touch 101, giving him elite velocity. His best secondary is a swing-and-miss changeup, and he mixes in an 89 MPH cutter with nasty late movement. It’s high-quality stuff across the board, and he’s already shown he can get big-league hitters out.
Control has been the issue. In 2024, he walked 4.5 per nine, and in Triple-A, that ballooned to nearly seven. But El Paso and the PCL are notoriously tough environments, and in his seven MLB appearances, he trimmed that to 3.5 BB/9. That’s encouraging, and I think a reasonable walk rate for him is around four per nine—enough to survive if the stuff stays this loud.
The ceiling here is a closer, but with Mason Miller locked into the ninth inning, Rodriguez will have to wait his turn. He’s still developing, but the arm is good enough to carve out a high-leverage role. Fantasy managers should monitor him closely—he’s one adjustment away from being a setup weapon with saves upside.
8. Miguel Mendez (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 50 SP
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: 70-grade fastball/slider combo; bullpen likely, rotation not ruled out
Signed in 2021, Mendez has steadily climbed the Padres’ system and now profiles as one of their most electric arms. He leans heavily on a fastball-slider combo, with both pitches grading out at 70 on the 20–80 scale. The fastball sits 96–98 MPH and can touch 100, spinning at elite rates. The delivery is high-effort, which raises durability questions, but the raw stuff is undeniable.
His changeup is still developing, and while he’s shown modest platoon splits so far, those could widen as he faces more advanced hitters. The slider is a true weapon—tight, late, and capable of missing bats in any count. He’s probably headed for the bullpen long-term, but the slider is so good that a rotation role isn’t off the table if the command holds.
Mendez is definitely someone to watch. The arm is exceptional, and if the Padres can smooth out the delivery and build up his innings, he could emerge as a high-leverage weapon or surprise starter. Fantasy managers should monitor his role closely—he’s got the kind of stuff that plays anywhere.
9. Tirso Ornelas (OF)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Waiver Wire Pickup, maybe a #5 outfielder
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Replacement-level depth with OBP skills and modest power-speed blend
It’s a shame Ornelas didn’t get more run in San Diego in 2025, appearing in just seven games and going 1-for-16. Unless you’re a top prospect like Roman Anthony or Gunnar Henderson, you need to hit to stick—and Ornelas didn’t. Still, his Triple-A season was solid: in 82 games, he slashed .289/.384/.450 with 10 homers, seven steals, and strong plate discipline (17.3% K-rate, 12.5% BB-rate).
That won’t make him a star, but it’s the kind of production that should earn a shot in the right organization. He’s 25 now, and while he’s unlikely to be rostered in most Dynasty formats, he’s not without value. The bat-to-ball skills, OBP foundation, and modest power-speed blend could translate into a full-time role if he lands in a favorable situation.
In fantasy terms, Ornelas profiles as a replacement-level outfielder—someone who can get on base, hit 10–12 homers, and chip in a few steals. He’s not flashy, but he’s functional. Keep him in mind as a depth piece if he gets another opportunity.
10. Victor Lizarraga (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 70 SP or Reliever
- Last Updated: 12/23/2025
- Tools Summary: Sinker-heavy backend starter or middle reliever if control improves
Lizarraga signed with the Padres in 2021 and has steadily climbed the ladder, reaching Double-A in 2024. He stayed at the level in 2025 and struggled: a 6.21 ERA over 25 games (23 starts), with 8.6 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9. The strikeouts are fine, but the walk rate is a concern, and the overall command needs to improve for him to stay in a rotation role.
His arsenal is fairly ordinary. The sinker averages 90 MPH (T92) and is tough to square up, so he throws it often. The curveball and changeup don’t generate many whiffs, but his funky delivery adds deception and helps him survive. Still, without consistent strikes, it’s hard to see him advancing beyond Triple-A. He’ll likely spend most of 2026 in the PCL, where control issues could be magnified.
For now, I’m willing to overlook the poor walk rate and hope for improvement. The sinker gives him a chance to eat innings, and the deception could play in short bursts. I’ll keep his upside pegged as a back-of-the-rotation starter or a middle reliever. He’s a depth arm with some utility if the control stabilizes.
