The Top Five are elite. The next tier through to #11 Spencer Steer are all solid options. The rest of this group brings, in some cases, more questions than answers, and with it comes risk—sometimes too much risk.
I prefer to come out of the draft with one of the top-tier 1B types. Vladdy at the wheel or Josh Naylor at the Fifth Round works fine. Vinnie Pasquantino in the 7th/8th round? You betcha! The mid and latter options work fine in filling the corner infield slot but provide too many unanswered questions to warrant being an everyday player at First Base.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR – 2024 moved Vladdy one step closer to a half-a-billion-dollar payday. 2025 could prove to be the finale that gets the deal done.
2. Bryce Harper, PHI – 30 homers, a handful of stolen bases, and an OPS in the .900 range is great production at First Base.
3. Matt Olson, ATL – In a down year, Olson slugged 29 homers and drove in 98 runs. Many a player would be very happy with those results in a down year.
4. Freddie Freeman, LAD – Freeman had surgery at the beginning of December to remove loose bodies from his ankle, a concern that followed him around for most of the 2024 season. A return to health will help, but heading into his age-36 season has the eventual decline commenced?
5. Josh Naylor, ARZ – Christian Walker is out. Josh Naylor is in. Naylor is coming off a career season in Cleveland but having the likes of Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll hitting ahead of him in Arizona won’t dim the chances for a repeat of that great 2024.
6. Pete Alonso, FA – The strikeouts were up. The power was down. The 2024 season didn’t improve the odds of Alonso securing a long-term deal.
7. Salvador Perez, KCR – You will most likely roster Perez at catcher, but he’s far from a non-entity at first. C-91
8. Vinnie Pasquantino, KCR – The fractured thumb cost the 27-year-old the full month of September and he still found a way to hit 19 homers and drive in 97 runs. Better days are right around the corner for the 27-year-old.
9. Christian Walker, HOU –A few less at-bats. A few less homers. A few less strikeouts. A lot more cash in Houston over the next three years. A rebound into the 30-home run range would go a long way towards endearing him to the Houston faithful.
10. Triston Casas, BOS – We are all aware of the power potential in that bat. Will it come to fruition in 2025?
11. Spencer Steer, CIN – The .260 BABIP, down from .318 in 2023 helps explain the drop in BA. Other than the dip in BA, the past two seasons have been remarkedly consistent. OF-102
12. Jake Burger, TEX – Burger has amassed a .250 BA in three years running. His OBP has been .302, .309. .301 over those same three years. That’s remarkedly consistent production for a 30-home run power bat. 3B-59
13. Cody Bellinger, NYY – Two years of Cody Bellinger could prove to be a huge bargain or curse. After his second-year decline in Chicago, I’ll go with the latter and proceed with caution. OF-94
14. Paul Goldschmidt, NYY – He’s moving to the Bronx after a solid 2024 in which he slugged 22 homers, drove in 65 runs, and swiped 11 bases. Is there one more year in the tank?
15. Michael Busch, CHC – A bird in the hand is worth two in the Busch?
16. Michael Toglia, COL – How do you like your home runs? I like mine with a bit more BA, but beggars can’t be choosers.
17. Rhys Hoskins, MIL – The high-end potential that was on display in 2018 has never been duplicated, but that doesn’t mean the 27, 30, and 26 home runs he has hit over the past three seasons should be ignored.
18. Jake Cronenworth, SDP – The numbers are just okay at First Base, but look much better at the “keystone corner.” 2B-70
19. Nathaniel Lowe, WAS – The move to Washington and a potentially better spot in the order could fuel an increase in the RBI totals.
20. Luis Arraez, SDP – BA and Runs scored are still just two categories in our game, right? 2B-42
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