| Original Published Date: Jan. 27 2013 |
We have modified our original Top 100 list to reflect fantasy rankings.
For a description of how we came up with the rankings as well as comments on some of the movers, click here.
| Original Published Date: Jan. 27 2013 |
We have modified our original Top 100 list to reflect fantasy rankings.
For a description of how we came up with the rankings as well as comments on some of the movers, click here.
nice “may pop-ups” article.. thanks Rich!
What are your latest thoughts on Mike lot? Has his stock dropped dramatically or is he just going through some tough times?
Stock is definitely dropping. I think I read he was having his eyes examined…maybe that’s the reason. I haven’t seen him play this year but something is clearly wrong.
Hi Rich,
I appreciate both this site and your podcast.
Could you add the date of the ranking so that we can tell how current it is?(Or is it already there and I’m not seeing it?)
Great point. I did that on all the write-ups but did not on the rankings. Will do.
Thank you for your great response as always. I’m in an NL only pool and drafting 5th in the prospect draft and was considering Wacha or Puig ahead of guys like (Dahl, Hansen or Wong) only because it is anvantageous that the players graduate this year and leave room for me to draft next year. I figure, Darnaud, Wheeler & Fernandez will be gone by the time I get to them at 5 and Gyorko will be unavailable due to our league rules.
When I saw Wacha, he didn’t really have a quality breaking pitch. It’s possibly it has improved and I’ve seen others write that it is in fact improved. How much, I don’t know. Puig…just saw him with my own eyes and will be writing up something by early next week. WOW…big, fast, and very athletic. Very good bat speed, although there is some length to the swing. I only saw two at-bats and batting practice and need to see more, but he might be better than anybody thought he would be. He’s a lottery pick for sure until we know more about him, but isn’t that what Fantasy Baseball is all about. I love both Dahl and Hansen but, and I could be DEAD wrong here, I’m might just take Puig before those other two if I were you.
Hi Rich,
If you were to re-rank today, would you bump up Yelich, Wacha or Puig based on their spring training?
I like Yelich a lot, but I still see a 20/20 guy and not the type of power that he showing in ST. Top 20 player and I feel good about that. The hit-tool is really going to play well and as a third hole hitter, he could be a very valuable fantasy guy. Wacha…he might be better than I thought but let’s see what this year holds. Puig…candidly, I haven’t seen him but hope to this week during spring training. The reports I had on him were very raw, but he might be more advanced than those reports. Still a very small sample size for all these guys. I’m in Arizona as I write this and will definitely find my way out to see him.
Great content Rich….thank you!
I don’t know about the other users but I’d be most interested in your rankings based on long term fantasy stats the players will put up. For us dynasty guys that are young and in leagues that have been going for 10+ years the long term outlook is all that matters!
Hey Rich, Well I bought a lottery ticket today by drafting D.J. Davis as my last of 10 minor league keepers. You sold me on him during”prospects” podcasts; which were great by the way. Thanks for the knowledge and entertainment with Timmy Lynn and the gang.
Enjoy. Keep an eye on Roman Quinn as well. Similar speed guy with the Phillies, maybe faster. Like both a lot!
That is very helpful. Thanks Rich. Have a great season!
I ended up moving Castellonas straight up for the #1 to get Fernandez. Good move? Feels like it was to me. I also ended up with Hanson at 3, Wacha at 5 and Domingo Santana at 12. Pretty stoked on my draft. Thanks for the great info Rich!
You should be…well done. Fernandez for Cast is nice get. Santana is a big drop off from the others though, but Fernandez and Hanson could be special and provided Wacha can develop a breaking pitch, he could be a solid #3 or more.
Ha ha, well I liked what you wrote about Santana. And with ESPN not adding Brinson, Davis, Quinn, Paulino, and other top 100 prospects till the other day our draft came down to slim pickens pretty quick. We also have a rookie draft after the MLB draft, so that’s another reason the pool was pretty thin/deep. I did like my draft though, thanks for the advice.
Advice wanted:
I have the 3rd and 6th picks in my dynasty league. On this list the top players available are Fernandez, Archie Bradley, Allen Hanson, Jorge Soler, Yasiel Puig, and Michael Wacha. I don’t usually take pitching over position players, but Fernandez and Bradley would be hard to turn down. I have a feeling I’ll be looking at Hansen or Soler at 3 and probably Wacha at 6. So would people take Soler or Hanson? This league will be around long enough for young players to be relevant. I’m leaning towards Soler since I prefer to draft power upside, but Hanson is higher on the list. Any advice? Also I am hoping ESPN adds Gregory Polanco to the pool before we draft but I guess it’s probably unlikely.
I think you have to take Fernandez first if you can get him. If you want to take Soler next, I understand your logic and leaning. The power upside is very high but Hanson plays at a premium fantasy position and with the potential for nice stolen bases, a little pop and a nice hit-tool, he could out-earn Soler, even if Soler becomes a 30 home run threat. Again, I totally understand your thought process, but for me though, I take Hanson. That said, and I say this to everyone…dynasty leagues are different than a traditional one-year league. You will own these guys a long-time and you have to stare at them on your team with no remorse Their upsides are close and both are very young and why I have them ranked close to one another. Good luck. RW
Thanks for the quick response Rich. Your site and podcast are invaluable and I really appreciate your work. So would you say Hanson has top 5 SS upside? Maybe a Starlin Castro type? That is hard to turn down. I will obviously take Fernandez if he’s there. The harder call would be Bradley vs Hanson and Soler.
Oh I probably should have mentioned…….I am just looking for the player who will carry the most value in 2-3 years. My team isn’t set up to win now.
I think Fernandez will be starting for the Marlins by then…not an ace yet, but showing a lot of potential. Soler and Hanson will both be sniffing the majors if not full-fledged rookies. Bradley, who I love, will likely be sniffing the majors and has #1 potential. Again, if I were drafting, I’d go Fernandez first, Hanson next, followed by Soler, Bradley,and then Puig.
FYI….in the latest article that I read on Kepler he claims to be up to 220lbs. I don’t think he is on the radar of many of the GM’s in my league so I may be able to just watch him for a bit, but I love his athleticism and I expect a very nice 2013 season from him.
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130128&content_id=41226182&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
I love the site. I look at a variety of rankings but now I accept yours as my official reference guide. We seem to feel very similar about a lot of guys and I like your insight and interaction with visitors.
Please give me your feedback on a trade that I just made and my plans for the upcoming draft. I needed to free up an additional spot on my minor league roster because I really wanted to be able to draft 2 players this year. We keep 10 prospects and I already had 9 on my roster. I traded Danny Hultzen and Gregory Polanco for Anthony Rendon. I know you like Polanco but I needed to free up space and I figured I could buy low on Rendon after his injury plagued 2012 season. I tried unsuccessfully to include Austin in the deal rather than Polanco.
This leaves my minor league roster as follows:
1. Jurickson Profar
2. Jose Fernandez
3. Jedd Gyorko
4. Anthony Rendon
5. Dan Vogelbach
6. Jesse Biddle
7. Robert Stephenson
8. Tyler Austin
9. ???
10. ???
I have the rights to the first overall selection in our minor league draft as well as the #7 pick. I intend to draft Mike Zunino and hopefully David Dahl. I expect Dahl to be there at #7. Based on your rankings I am guessing that you would support the trade and at least the selection of Dahl. I like Zunino over other guys because of his position and quick expected path to MLB.
Also….I would love to hear what you think about Jessie Winker and Max Kepler these are both guys who are pretty high on my list of available prospects. I will be tracking them both and looking to add one when I have the roster space….most likely when I promoted Gyorko.
Thanks,
AWBY
“The Flying Wasp”
Wow…a lot here…
I’m good with the trade, particularly if you have free-up a spot. Rendon has a chance to be an elite player, provided he can stay healthy. He looked great in the fall league and I was encouraged. Polanco hits High-A with a lot of upside, particularly fantasy, but he’s still has a lot of risk associated with him. I’m just not huge on Hultzen. In two-years, there will be dozens of pitchers like him.
The safe pick is Zunino and he has the best trade value of any prospect coming into the league. But in 5-years, Dahl will be the better fantasy player, by a long shot. Yes positional scarcity supports the pickup as well. If you don’t get Dahl, it’s Russell or Almora for me.
I love Kepler and believe he’ll make my Top 100 list next year. Winker is ok for me…no speed but can hit with some power. Candidly, those guys are readily available in a fantasy league, unless you are crazy deep. I’m always looking for power/speed guys in the OF.
I love the site. I look at a variety of sites for player rankings but now I accept yours as my official reference guide. We seem to feel very similar about a lot of guys and I like your insight and interaction with visitors.
Please give me your feedback on a trade that I just made and my plans for the upcoming draft. I needed to free up an additional spot on my minor league roster because I really wanted to be able to draft 2 players this year. We keep 10 prospects and I already had 9 on my roster. I traded Danny Hultzen and Gregory Polanco for Anthony Rendon. I know you like Polanco but I needed to free up space and I figured I could buy low on Rendon after his injury plagued 2012 season….and I don’t really like Hultzen much. I tried to include Austin rather than Polanco with no luck.
This leaves my roster as follows:
1. Jurickson Profar
2. Jose Fernandez
3. Jedd Gyorko
4. Anthony Rendon
5. Dan Vogelbach
6. Jesse Biddle
7. Robert Stephenson
8. Tyler Austin
9. ???
10. ???
I have the rights to the first overall selection in our minor league draft as well as the #7 pick. I intend to draft Mike Zunino and hopefully David Dahl. I expect Dahl to be there at #7 as there are a few clueless owners in front of me in terms of prospects. Based on your rankings I am guessing that you would support the trade and at least the selection of Dahl. I like Zunino over other guys because of his position and quick expected path to MLB.
Also….I would love to hear what you think about Jessie Winker and Max Kepler these are both guys who are pretty high on my list of available prospects. I will be tracking them both and looking to add one throughout the course of the season as roster space becomes available maybe when I promote Gyorko. Which player do you prefer?
Thanks,
AWBY
Hey Rich, thanks for the post. I have the 3rd pick in the upcoming draft. #1 is supposedly not going to be a prospect and #2 is supposedly going Jose Fernandez. Should I go with Correa, Russell, Dahl, Buxton or Singleton #3? Or Jose Fernandez if #2 passes him up? I have Kemp and Jupton in OF and jeter, cozart at ss and hoping machado comes bk. Just traded Verlander so Scherzer is arguably my ace. Thanks in advance!
Sorry it’s taken me a while. Somehow I missed this one.
Based on your team (Jeter and Cozart), I would go Russell and then Dahl or Buxton. However, if Fernandez is there, you’ve got to take him…got to.
I’m surprised to see no mention of Chris Archer or Eddie Rosario.
I wrote about both of them and rank them highly but they both just miss my Top 100. I’m worried about Archer’s ability to throw strikes – love the arsenal, particularly his slider but the Rays need to work on his command; which candidly they have a track record of doing. I like Rosario a lot and believe he has a chance to be a first division starter or solid regular at the highest level. He just missed the list.
Thanks Rich… Is Oscar Taveras going to get the AB’s this year? I have him and Wil Myers and need to keep one for this year and next?
Here’s the way I would look at it.
Myers should get the call early in June as this is a typical Rays strategy. Plus, he’ll be one of the early callups as he has ZERO service time. So, you should expect 3.5 to 4 months of production. I think you’ll see power and a decent average with minimal SB’s. I’m guessing he’ll hit down in the order initially and this should surpress his other counting stats. However, 15-18 home runs seems like a reasonable estimate/floor (this is what I would put in my spreadsheet for estimating draft production) with 50 Runs and RBIs. Count on a .270-.275 average.
On the other hand, Taveras has no job. However, Beltran is old and could be injury prone and Holliday is no spring chicken either. Plus, is Jon Jay truly for real??? It’s risky to say he’ll get more than 100 at-bats in 2013 but in the end, that could happen, you just can count on it at the beginning of February.
While I like the long-term value of Taveras more, for 2013, Myers is the safer bet.
Thanks for all of the information and analysis! Why is Soler ranked so low? Doesn’t he have the power/speed potential to become an elite fantasy player?
He’s a tough one to rank as the power is still in the potential stage and the speed will not translate to stolen bases, particularly the more he matures. I could be low on him but not by a ton; I could see him going anywhere from 45 to 60. Still an elite prospect for me.
Thanks for the explanation. Are these the rankings that you would use for a dynasty draft?
Love the site and podcasts Rich, thanks for your insight. 16 team, deep dynasty league and I own the 2nd and 4th picks. Correa going #1…was thinking Buxton and Addison Russell (I have no present or long term SS) but Dahl is making strong push. Any thoughts/advice? Thanks again
I would love to get Russell and/or Dahl in those spots. I would think you could. Buxton has crazy upside but it’s going to take a while. Both Russell and Dahl should move quickly.
It’s not perfect, but I used a combination of expected values for 2013 along with long-term value. I did write a post about it, but realized I should have included a link on this page to the write-up. It explains my ranking of Teheran. Here’s a link. http://prospect361.com/2013/01/27/top-100-fantasy-players/
Will update the page now.
Hi Rich,
Fantastic work as always! Thank you.
I was wondering about how you valued a player’s upcoming value in 2013 vs. their career value in this list. For example, Julio Teheran projects as having a rotation spot in Atlanta to start the season, where as Shelby Miller has strong competition for a spot in the St. Louis rotation; yet Miller saw his value on this list rise while Teheran saw his fall.
Is this list based on projected 2013 value, projected career value, or a combination of the two?