1,022 Comments

Ask 361

Use this section to post all your questions on Dynasty Leagues, redraft leagues, or candidly, anything you want.

I’ll do my best to answer in a timely fashion.

For previous items, go here.

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1,022 comments on “Ask 361

  1. 14-Team Dynasty League: Of these available players on waivers, who do you see making an impact next year as a call up or late call up this year. We get 2 NA slots that I already have T. Glassnow and JP Crawford and have room for maybe 1 or 2 more as a bench. FA pickups can be kept in the last round of a 24-Rd Draft. Thanks Rich!

    Bradley Zimmer, David Dahl, Manuel Margot, Josh Bell, Orlando Arcia, Jameson Taillon

    • Impact next year? Actually, I’m not sure of any of them. I think all but Manny Margot will be up. Zimmer is the most likely to have early success followed by Arcia. Love Dahl though with the highest upside and Margot is going to be very, very good but not as a Red Sox.

  2. Will Gausman ever figure it out? If so what’s his upside? 3.00era 1.15whip 9k/9?

  3. Hey Rich :

    all things being equal ,
    which arcia do i want to pick up for my dynasty team ?

    14 team-er , and according to league rules , i’d have to carry the player
    on my major league roster until the end of the year .
    after that , i can place him on my minor league squad , for 2016 and beyond .

    or , i could do the same with difo or pompey .

    am leaning towards one of the infielders ,
    primarily because of the (potential) scarcity-nature of the beast ,
    but give me your thoughts , please .

    Thanking You , in advance .

    • I think Orlando Arcia has the highest upside and will likely get a Sept. call-up. The Twins clearly have a problem with Oswaldo and he likely needs out of there to get a chance. Like Pompey and he’ll see a Sept callup but playing time will be an issue. The addition of Revere really hurt him. I just don’t know where he plays. Difo??? I think the Nats promote Turner.

  4. I read your prospect review of the Phillies and noticed you thought the obp ceiling of Franco to be around .310. So far this year is obp is in the neighborhood of .340. Which number likely proves more true long term? .310? Or .340? Also has his power output this year reinforced his 30/100 possibility? Or increased it? Thanks

  5. when is hector olivera gonna be brought up to play second for the braves?

  6. Would I rather own Jake Thompson (PHI) or Aaron Blair?

    Who has the brighter future?

  7. Mr. Wilson!
    (All prices are this year costs)

    You’ve helped me quite a bit this year with questions and I have another for you with a different league. 12 Team Head-to-Head, 5×5, Auction League. Been in 1st place all year but feel I’m just hanging on even though I have what will be about a 8 game lead after this week. We keep 3 players each year with a $5 increase and arbitrate a 4th. I have an offer to deal Keuchel $1 for W. Davis, M. Melancon and J. Cueto $12…There are 2 teams in the playoff hunt that run all closers and setup men (we count Saves + Holds) and win every week with this strategy because they have strong offenses. There’s also 2 teams in the hunt that run all Starters. Top 6 teams make playoffs.

    My potential keepers next year are Abreu $17, Donaldson $13, Sale $19, Pollock $3, Mookie $9, Keuchel $1 so I do have options if I deal Keuchel but his cost is really tantalizing.

    My question is should I do the deal to line myself up better against the “Reliever” teams?
    How would you tackle this conundrum? I’ve tied 5-5 against the 2nd place guy who runs all relievers and squeaked by the other while fairing well against everyone else obviously.

    My Pitching is very strong:
    RP – Chapman, Street, Betances, Siegrist
    SP – Scherzer, Sale, Keuchel, Odorizzi, Nola, Zimmermann, Heston, T. Walker and then I try and stream so right now I have Tillman, J. Ross and J. Nelson.

    Sorry for such a long post this time, as I try to keep them short but needed to have you well-informed.

    Look forward to your thoughts. Much appreciated Rich!
    P.S. I don’t mind the commercials on the podcast, you deserve some dollars for all you guys do!

    • Rich, I’m following up because a deal has been accepted…but we’ll see if the League Vetoes it.

      I get: J. Cueto, Wade Davis, K. Jansen, Chris Davis

      Give up: K. Siegrist, D. Keuchel, J. Ross

      I’m getting quite the haul but the owner wanted Keuchel badly, he’s rebuilding and wants Keuchel’s $1 ($6 next yr) to pair with J. Fernandez $8 ($13 next yr) and he has 3 rookies (Correa, Giolito and Sano)

      I’d still like to know your thoughts on how you would combat the all Closer strategies. I try to get 3-5 low ratio closers/setup men paired with at least 2 Aces and other low ratio starters and then stream for QS

  8. Hi Rich- Any new insights on Kohl Stewart? He has dropped out of the top 50 even with all the recent promotions. Has something went wrong with his development this year? What kind of player does he look like now? Thanks.

  9. Hey friend…

    Jays just landed tulo and I’m a happy camper..now if we could only get a pitcher!

    Now that trevor story has tulo gone…do you see him being a fantasy stud in 2016?

    Do you think this helps Reyes?

    Take care

  10. In a dynasty league I have Kyle Schwarber. I was offered Jorge soler for Schwarber. In your opinion, which one of these guys would you rather have? Do the trade? Keep Schwarber?

  11. Hi Rich, Love the podcasts, missed you this week.
    Rumor: Morse headed back to the Giants. Does he play? I have Belt, Morse is a free agent. 15 Team, 28 players. Is Morse worth picking up? Can’t take time from ‘All World’ Belt can he? I am competitive (BTW, thanks!) but my OF is kind of weak.

  12. Good morning, Sir!

    In a 20 team, 40 minors/team league, I have acquired an interesting, albeit motley crew of pitchers. After eliminating the obvious, how would you rank the following (and would you consider all of these to be) longshots?

    Raul Alcantara (consistently low k totals but looks the part)
    Alec Asher (smart pitcher nice mechanics not always standout stuff)
    Michael Cederoth (mentioned as ceiling of closer)
    Jharel Cotton (volquez/tom gordon-ish?)
    Daniel Mengden (mentioned as an under the radar pick)
    Frederis Parra (mentioned as a dark horse)
    Wes Parsons (can’t seem to get off the ground)
    Eric Skoglund (like his mechanics am hoping fb ticks up a notch or two)

    Thank you for your thoughts!

  13. Is Michael conforto comped to Nick Markakis first 4 seasons a fair comp to what he can do?

  14. hey Rich :

    i realize that this is a busy (and fun) time for you ,
    but i was wondering if you’ve had a chance to see this kid (25 years old) ,
    Cody Anderson , pitch for the Cleveland Indians .

    i’ve watched each of his four mlb starts , and am impressed by his size ,
    poise , composure , and determination .
    (i think there’s a bit of bull-dog in him … and very little “back-down”) .

    what he lacks is a “put-away” , swing and miss , pitch ,
    thus , his K totals are border-line miserable to almost non-existent .

    here is the link to his cbs page , which shows his minor league record :
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/playerpage/2116982/cody-anderson

    i grabbed him for his 1st start , in my dynasty league ,
    and am buoyed by the thought , that the longer he hangs around
    that Cleveland bullpen , the more likely he is to “learn” a pitch ,
    from Kluber , or Carrasco , or Salazar , or maybe even the
    Mickey Callaway/Jason Bere coaching combination .

    am wondering if you’ve seen him pitch , this year , or maybe in the minors .

    obviously , am asking you to put on your “scout” cap ,
    and provide me with your assessment .

    given a modicum of talent , how hard can it be to learn and
    develop a new pitch ?

    thanking you , in advance .

    • Nice analysis and conclusion about Anderson. PitchFx data supports your position, although his change-up looks like it’s getting some swings and misses. Breaking pitches are not fooling anyone.

      I never saw him pitch, I don’t think, in the minor leagues. He’s not in my database, but in the early years, I wasn’t as diligent as I am today about logging everything. I’ve seen a few innings on MLB.TV and he is what you say.

      The wildcard is the coaching situation in Cleveland. Kluber was never an elite prospect and they unlocked the talent of Carrasco and Bauer. I would not put it past Anderson to improve his strikeout rate and continue to become relevant in fantasy.

      Cody Anderson is one of the topic for this Sunday 7/12 on our podcast…I might just read your post…LOL.

      • as a follow-up to “learning a new pitch” , here’s a link to Manaea crediting Ryan Madson teaching him to use his 4-seam change-up (and drop the 2-seamer) … in an effort to control arm-side “run” …. http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150715&content_id=136735598&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

        carlos martinez , on the other hand , credits his up-tick to developing “more” arm-side run , by switching to a 2-seam change-up .

        so , my question today , mister Pitching Scout … is this some sort of aerodynamic fact ?
        does a 2-seamer give more “run” than a 4-seamer ??
        or are these just peculiar facts related to these particular pitchers ??

        again ,
        thanking you , in advance

  15. Hey Rich,
    I just claimed Tony Kemp. 2B Hou. I really don’t know that much about him except that he was hot as a firecracker for a while. What should I look for out of him?

    Thanks for your time and keep up the podcasts!
    Frank

  16. Hey Rich, back on the Joseph question, the question was asked to Mark Anderson of BP on twitter, and here’s his response:

    https://twitter.com/ProspectMark/status/619107949542309892

    https://twitter.com/ProspectMark/status/619173268206014464

    Sounds like an odd situation. What would the issue need to be for Anderson not to be able to go into it?

  17. Trade Question: I’m in 1st place in a 14_Team Dynasty Keeper League. I traded away last year to acquire early draft picks so my team is stacked. Keepers are kept at a 2 round upgrade every year. (round value for next year indicated)

    I get:
    M. Harvey (14 Rd)
    4th Rd Pick
    14th Rd Pick

    Give up:
    K. Calhoun (Rd 10)
    J. Samardzija (Rd 6)
    2nd Rd Pick
    10th Rd Pick

    My keepers for next year would be Stanton (1), Springer (9), Arenado (11), A. Wood (12), W. Davis (13 – we have holds), Keuchel (16), Syndergaard (18), M. Betts (20), Joc Pederson (21), A. Russell (22), T. Glasnow (23), JP Crawford (24)

    As you can see, a really strong core and Harvey would be slotted in the (14th). I may try and ask to give up a 3rd instead but do you think this trade is a no brainer or not.

    Thanks Rich!

  18. Hi Rich,
    I tried digging around on the site, but couldn’t find much recent info on the following minor leaguers … I’m particularly interested in them as they are both on their team’s respective 40 man rosters and there appear to be some differing avenues for them to join the big league club’s rotation.

    – Erik Johnson (CHW) – blocked by Danks, Samardzija (trade candidate), and Rodon (shut down candidate)

    – John Lamb (KAN) – blocked by Guthrie, Young, Ventura, and Duffy (with Vargas and Medlen as additional roadblocks when they return from DL)

    I am admittedly performing statistical scouting with each, but they have caught my eye as both have performed well at AAA. For Johnson, he appears to have moved on from last season’s disaster…have you seen or heard anything about him from a scouting perspective (development of change up maybe?). For Lamb, I am wondering if he has discovered anymore velocity from his pre-TJS days. I found a post from you back in 2013 that said he was 7-8 MPH below his pre-surgery velocity.

    Thanks!

    • I’ve had reports that Erik Johnson has pitched better. I did like him two years ago, but as you point out, it didn’t go well for him in his MLB debut. Lamb – I hope he makes it, but the stuff is really diminished. I think its buyer beware on both with Johnson over Lamb.

  19. Hey Rich,

    Need your help on this one…

    Norris ($2.00)
    Sano ($1.00)

    For

    Springer ($1.00)

    Is Springer worth it for those two guys? We need help for this year, but don’t want to give up too much for next.

    Thanks!

    • Given Springer is out for a while with a broken wrist. I haven’t heard of a specific time, but it’s usually 6-8 weeks. If so, that’s most of the second half. It doesn’t seem to fit your objective.

      • Yes, that’s a question mark too. That’s partially why I’m not sure I should make the deal.

        Also, I don’t want to get burned by Sano and Norris next year if I don’t get a ton out of Springer this year yet.

        Thoughts?

        Thanks!

      • It will not help this year, but neither is Sano and Norris likely to help much. So, it’s long-term. 12-team league is more about quality than quanitity and GS has proven he could be a significant contributor. Sano and Norris are still dreams. I would go Springer, just know that his contribution will be limited this year.

  20. Hey Rich:

    A question regarding the way you look at hitting prospects:

    Which quality do you believe is more important for a young hitter to have in order to achieve success at the Major League level? Do you look more at a prospect hitter’s plate discipline and strike zone judgement, their ability to make contact (any contact) with a pitched ball, or a hitter’s power capabilities?

    What in your opinion is the top quality or talent to consider when evaluating a hitter’s potential?

    Thanks,

    Bill

    • It’s a great question Bill.

      I value a hitters ability to control the strikezone and make contact as key to big league success. That said, superstars are many times born out of toolsy players that eventually takes their hit tool time to develop. The classic case is Carlos Gomez. He’s turned into a star but it took a long time for his hit tool to develop.

      In the end, give me Mookie Betts or Manny Margot; guys that are hitters first with bat speed and natural foot speed and I’ll go there almost any time.

      • Hey Rich:

        I’d like to tack on a follow-up to my question about what you look for in evaluating hitting talent.

        Guys like Betts and Margot within the Red Sox organization have received a lot of press lauding their contact skills and bat speed. Have you seen any hitters at the lower levels of any MLB organizations who have the same potential but who have not received the coverage of some of the more highly-touted prospects? I guess I am asking if there are any true under-the-radar sleepers out there — any hitters we don’t know but probably should?

        Thanks again,

        Bill

      • Every year I do an article about kids that can really hit. Here’s what I wrote last year.

        http://prospect361.com/2014/06/25/young-kids-who-can-really-hit/

        Many of these guys were not very heralded when I wrote it. I’ll be doing something similar shortly. In the article, I list some of the things I look for in a hitter. I hope this helps.

      • Rich, any chance at a sneak peak of the list? I’m in a draft right now and could really use some names. LOL

  21. hey Rich
    as you know , i’ve been a devout reader of your blog and listener of your pod-casts
    since their inception .
    when it comes to major league ballplayers , we often have differing opinions ,
    but in assessing the talents (and potential) of minor league prospects ,
    i rely heavily on your opinion .

    that said ,
    on your most recent top 50 prospects pod-cast , you called #34 , Jose Berrios ,
    “a potential solid #3 ,and perhaps a low #2 SP” .

    as i have never seen him pitch , it would help me in my evaluation of Jose Berrios , if we could use Jon Lester as a yardstick .

    imo , Jon Lester is a #3 SP … (albeit , perhaps , the best #3 SP in the majors) .

    what is YOUR opinion of Jon Lester ?

    thanking you in advance .

  22. Hey Rich, awesome work you do here at prospect 361! Was wondering if you could answer a quick question for me. What happened to Manuel Joseph, who was owned by the Tigers organization? I say “was” because his MiLB.com profile says his status is currently “released”. Do you know where he is and if a team has picked him up yet? Why did Detroit release him? Their system isn’t exactly the Chicago Cubs system, so one would think that a guy who hits real well in the DSL would get a shot to come over state side and perform in the US. Just trying to figure out why a kid like Joseph was released by Detroit despite putting up impressive numbers in the DSL. Thanks in advance Rich and keep up the great work here!

  23. What should I do with A. Russell? Drop/Trade/Hold?

    14-Team Dynasty and Russell would be a 22nd Round keeper next year (moves up 2 rounds each year kept).

  24. I have a few bubble type players I am considering for my Dynasty roster. Would you recommend any of the below names over the others?

    Hitters
    Mark Zagunis
    Luigi Rodriguez
    Javier Guerea
    Chance Sisco
    Dwight Smith, Jr.
    Gavin Cecchini

    Pitchers
    Jorge Lopez
    Yoel Mecias
    Clinton Hollon
    Justin Steele

    Thanks!

    • Zagunis can really hit. I like him the most. Saw Guerea earlier this year and he was impressive in the field with some speed. I don’t think there will be much power. I like Chance Sisco and given the problems with Bundy and Harvey, he could be the Top prospect in that organization.

  25. Conforto or Judge? Both are basically at the same spot in your most recent rankings…which would you chose to stash? Dynasty H2H OBP league

  26. have you seen yorman rodriguez this year. Does he look like he has finally made adjustments or just small sample size? Do you see him as a solid OF for the reds?

    • Saw him last week in Scranton. Guy looks the part and even hit a HR in the game I saw. However, I saw some laziness in his play and that turned me off. That said, he has the tools: plus bat speed, ability to steal some bases, a nice arm for RF. I’m not convinced he’ll ever reach his ceiling. That said, keep buying cheaply for him as it could come together.

  27. Hi Rich! Of Mychal Givens, Nick Wittgren, and Pat Light, who has the best shot at being a great mlb reliever…closer or otherwise?? (holds are okay too!). Thanks!

  28. hi Rich, last year Giles was dominating the minors…who is this year’s Ken Giles, currently in the minors, and on the cusp of the majors? Thanks!

  29. Thoughts on Joe Musgrove?

  30. Hey Rich, what do you think of Mauricio Dubon? Not a lot of scouting reports on him & he seems to get lost in all the Redsox prospect talk.

  31. Dynasty H2H 6X6 OBP league — am I crazy to be considering his Springer for my Corey Seager & Julio Urias? for perspective — young guys I currently have: Manny Margot, Mookie Betts, Addison Russell, Joc Pederson, Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriquez, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes…currently in 3rd place and the first place team just made a big move, so I need to catch up…I think I have enough youth/talent to absorb the loss of the 2 blue chippers in Seager & Urias…what do you think?

  32. Hi Rich! Thanks for everything as usual. Any thoughts on Max Kepler? Looks like he is finally starting to hit. Do you think he can be a regular at the big league level?

    • Kepler is a test for fantasy owners in patience, one that I fail at constantly and have done so here. It just took Kepler a long time to let his athleticism shine through. The in-game power has yet to surface but he has average to above-average speed and has really learned to hit. Upside is an above-average regular in the big leagues.

  33. Hey Rich,
    In a 12-team points league with 30 man rosters, should I drop any of the following for Matz: Quintana, Fiers, McHugh, Walker, or Velasquez?

  34. Is Marcus Stroman worth a long term DL stash? My league offers 4 DL slots and I’m only using 2 ATM

  35. What’s his upside/future projections??

  36. Dynasty league…who do you like better for 2016?

    D. Herrera or JP Crawford? Are they a similar player or is Crawford that much better?

  37. Hi Rich! Should Brett Phillips be picked up off the waiver wire in a 16 team dynasty?

  38. Threw this out in the FB group, but do you have anything on Yeyson Yrizarri?
    It appears he got a jump from Rookie-Ball to AAA as an 18 year old.
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/Prospect361/permalink/1124797887549876/

  39. Rick 10 team dynasty H2H would you rather have Jose Peraza, Roughned Odor, or Dilson Herrera? TIA

    • Hmm…there are close but I’m big believer in Dilson Herrera and it’s between him and Peraza. Hmm…let’s go Dilson because he’ll likely stay in the dirt as the Braves seem to favor Peraza in the OF. It’s close and I might change my mind tomorrow.

      • Rich,

        Thanks for your insight here I went ahead and picke dup Dilson Herrera. I have another question for you about the same team. I have the following players that are keepers Hanley Ramirez who I’m still playing at SS but will move to OF next year. George Springer and Christian Yelich. I’m looking at replacing Yelich I have Justin Upton & A.J. Pollock this year so Yelich is just sitting on the bench and I’m wondering if any of these guys would be better options for the future? TIA

        Bradley Zimmer OF CLE
        Ramiel Tapia OF COL
        Jesse Winker OF CIN
        Brett Phillips OF HOU
        Hunter Renfroe OF SD
        Nick Williams OF TEX
        Clint Coulter OF MIL

  40. Where would Velasquez have ranked on your mid-season top 100 before the call-up? I know that he was 82nd preseason, but how far would his performance at a higher level combined with a bunch of guys ahead of him graduating to the majors have pushed him?

  41. My 20 team dynasty league just started its minor league draft. I have the 4th pick overall and the following have been taken: Swanson, Rogers, De Leon. Some options I am considering are Bergman, Olivera, Devers, Fulmer, C. Frazier, and Tucker. Would you please rank them? Is there any others players in the I do have a pretty good OF in Polanco, Pederson, Souza, and Bruce so I would prefer the INFs.

  42. I’m in a H2H OBP Dynasty(keep all players) league…I just traded Max Scherzer, Matt Carpenter, & JP Crawford for Joc Pederson, Kolten Wong, & Tyson Ross…Did I win or lose in your opinion? — context of the trade: I own Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Steven Matz so losing JP I thought was ok…also on the pitching side I had Gerrit Cole, Archer, Keuchel, sonny gray, jordan zimm, pineda, mchugh, so I felt I could afford to move Max…

  43. I just read your list about guys coming up. I was just offered Souza or Archie bradley for baez. I hesitated because his bat is so enticing. Would you just hold on to him and see what happens….or is Souza or bradley worth it (what happened to him).

    • Tough call…this year, Souza for sure…long-term, I would stick with Baez. I guess it depends on whether you are competing. Bradley just can’t throw enough strikes yet. He’s going to be good, just not yet.

  44. What are your thoughts on CJ Cron? Will he settle into an everyday role in the MLB at some point or does he look like a Quad A type who crushes in AAA but struggles against MLB pitchers? If you think he will settle into a full time MLB role at some point what does he look like in 2016 and at his peak? Thanks in advance.

  45. Hi Rich….I’m interested in your opinion on two breakout pitchers this year.

    Jose De Leon vs Brent Honeywell

    Who do you think has the most upside long term?

    I’ve been offered the following deal in a 20 team mixed dynasty:

    I give Rougned Odor/Brent Honeywell/2nd round pick in new player draft

    for

    Jose De Leon/Carson Smith/Dominic Smith

    I’d be interested in your thoughts..thanks

  46. Hello – I know you like Alex Reyes quite a bit, but am wondering if you think he’ll remain a starter? Love his stuff, but his walk rate is scaring me.

    The reason I ask, is someone is asking me for both Reyes and Eloy Jiminez in a trade (in part), which would bring me back Nelson Cruz. I am way back in HR and SLG (injuries to D Wright, Vmart..plus Arcia, Y Gomes and Jaso).

    Am I giving up too much?

    • You’re right, I’m a big fan. But part of the reason you have prospects is to help the real team. It’s a fair trade and Cruz should help.

      To answer your question directly, Reyes has the arsenal and athleticism to be a #2 pitcher. I believe the control will improve but I’m not 100% confident. If not, he could be a nasty back-of-the-bullpen guy.

      Here’s what I just wrote up about him.

  47. (Sorry if this posts twice)

    16 team dynasty league

    Choose your keeper/player preference:

    Option A
    2015 ROS Taijuan Walker
    2016 Taijuan Walker @ market rate based on 2015

    Option B
    2015 ROS Archie Bradley
    2016 Archie Bradley at cheap discount
    2017 Archie Bradley @ market rate based on 2016

    Thanks!

  48. Good afternoon Rich: I really thought Miguel Sano would be on a much faster track this year than is apparent. It appears his promotion this summer might merely be to AAA with perhaps a September call-up. I was hoping for his going up to the Twins after the Super 2 deadline provided he hit well enough. How do you see this situation playing out? Thanks Rich – appreciate it, as always…..

  49. 16 team dynasty league

    Choose your keeper/player preference:

    Option A
    2015 ROS Taijuan Walker
    2016 Taijuan Walker @ market rate based on 2015

    Option B
    2015 ROS Archie Bradley
    2016 Archie Bradley at cheap discount
    2017 Archie Bradley @ market rate based on 2016

    Thanks!

  50. I just had a spot open up on my dynasty league prospect list. I read your piece on jose Deleon and was set to add him. I also see that michael kopech of the Red Sox has done well.

    Which would you take for long term potential?

    I also noticed michael gettys is there and know you like him. From what you have seen, which if the three would you add to the open slot in terms of potential.

    Thanks!

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