Advertisements

Dylan White

Buy Low Pitchers using BABIP and xwOBA

Now that we’ve passed the quarter-pole of the 2019 season, we are starting to be able to deep dive into the underlying statistics with more confidence. A quick way to see which pitchers we could argue have been unlucky is to compare their xwOBA (derived from Stat Cast batted ball data) against their BABIP.  Because […]

Advertisements

Digging Deep Series – Buy Low Pitchers (Through May 7th)

This is the companion piece to the Hitter deep dive last week. Now that we have accumulated over a month of data, we can examine to see which starting pitchers have seen the most substantive changes (in both directions) in their pitching effectiveness, both in defense-independent results (e.g. K%, BB%) and with the underlying peripherals […]

Digging Deep – Buy low Hitters through April

We’ve gathered over a full month of data and some of the underlying metrics are starting to become more “stable” – by which we mean we can make more confident conclusions about whose performance this year is ”real”. The strikeout rate is one of the quickest hitting characteristics to stabilize; whereas batted ball metrics such […]

Digging Deep Series – “Buy Low (Hot-Rod), Sell-High (Lemons) Pitchers”

To use StatCast data for deep analysis on pitchers, I started with the simple difference between wOBA and xwOBA. The difference between actual results (i.e. wOBA) and expected results (based on the batted ball data for their pitches, i.e. xwOBA) would provide a crude high-level method to identify overachievers or underperformers thus far in the […]

Digging Deep: Hot Rods and Lemons (Week 3)

We’re back with a new installment of Hot Rod or Lemon. This time we’re trying to get some names for you prior to Sunday night FAAB to maybe throw some money at (or to drop whilst picking up someone else). This article looks at StatCast data through Friday night’s games. Enjoy the list and please […]

Digging Deep Series: Looking under the Hood – Hot Rod or Lemon

It’s only been a week but already we can take a look at some batted ball numbers in StatCast. MLB has downloadable leaderboards for average exit velocity, ‘barrels’ per plate appearance and expected batting average – both for hitters and pitchers. Taking a look after about a week of games is not particularly definitive. However, […]

Hitter Comparisons using StatCast

With the public availability of StatCast data, the baseball fan is now able to do deeper dives into players using information that was never before accessible. A fun thing I like to do is to compare players’ underlying peripherals to see which players have similar hitting profiles to each other. When thinking about what makes […]

Digging Deep Series: Players to draft for On-Base Percentage Leagues

Average Draft Position or ADP is commonly used to assist fantasy players in determining where to select batters and pitchers as they go through their draft. However, most ADP’s are derived from standard 5×5 categories and that presents challenges when leagues use another category such as OBP instead of batting average.  To assist those fantasy […]

Digging Deep Series: Pitchers to avoid at the Draft Table

Of all of the ERA indicators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), I’ve found through experience that SIERA (“Skill-Interactive ERA”) has been the most predictive. One simple way to find pitchers to avoid before your draft then is to subtract a pitcher’s 2018 ERA from their 2018 SIERA and find the largest negative discrepancies between what their results […]

Digging Deep Series: Sleepers – Pitchers

Of all of the ERA indicators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), I’ve found through experience that SIERA (“Skill-Interactive ERA”) has been the most predictive. One simple way to find sleepers before your draft is to subtract a pitcher’s 2018 ERA from their 2018 SIERA and find the largest positive discrepancies between what their results actually were vs […]