Houston Astros Farm System: The Astros’ farm system blends potential fantasy-impact, but volatile bats, with a mix of equally volatile arms.
Summary
The Astros’ system features a handful of true fantasy-impact bats, led by Jacob Melton and Brice Matthews, both combine athleticism with speed/power blends that could translate into everyday roles. Xavier Neyens offers big raw power with patience, and Walker Janek is a rare catcher who brings both pop and speed alongside plus defense. Together, they form the core of Houston’s most exciting fantasy prospects.
On the pitching side, Bryce Mayer and Alonzo Tredwell stand out as rotation candidates. Mayer throws strikes with three solid secondaries and could grow into a mid-rotation arm if velocity ticks up post-TJS, while Tredwell’s unique pitch shapes and 6-foot-8 frame make him an analytics favorite despite average velocity. Ryan Forcucci and Miguel Ullola are more volatile — Forcucci has mid-rotation upside if he returns strong from surgery, while Ullola’s upper-90s fastball/slider combo likely fits best in relief.
Among the developmental bats, Caden Powell, Luis Baez, Nick Monistere, and Kevin Alvarez offer intriguing but risky profiles. Powell pairs hard contact with speed but must cut down a 30% strikeout rate, Baez has significant raw power but struggled post-injury with spin and strikeouts, and Monistere brings rare second-base power but needs to refine his approach. Alvarez, meanwhile, made a notable impression in the DSL with strong contact skills and steady defense, positioning himself as a sleeper utility infielder to watch as he climbs the ladder.
AI-Assisted Fantasy Tiers: Methodology and Observations
AI has made significant strides in all aspects of our lives. Over the past four years, I have compiled 500,000 words of personal scouting narratives, which have formed the foundation for training my own AI assistant. This assistant now evaluates prospects and assigns fantasy tiers exclusively based on the insights and observations contained in my write-ups.
After requesting that my AI assistant generate fantasy tiers using this year’s reports, I found that the AI’s rankings generally align with my own assessments. However, there are some cases where the AI’s evaluations differ from my personal rankings. I am sharing those differences here for your consideration.
🥇 Tier 1: Fantasy Impact Targets
- Jacob Melton – Plus speed/power blend, patient approach, everyday outfield upside.
- Brice Matthews – Athletic shortstop, above-average pop, speed, versatile defensive profile.
- Xavier Neyens – Raw power, above-average bat speed, patient approach, three-outcome potential.
- Walker Janek – Catcher with solid power, surprising speed, plus defense, OBP upside.
🥈 Tier 2: Everyday-Upside Targets
- Zach Cole – Speed-first outfielder, gap power, solid defense, fourth outfielder profile.
- Kevin Alvarez – Contact-oriented infielder, average power, steady glove, utility role projection.
- Ethan Frey – Balanced power/speed, solid strike-zone feel, fourth outfielder upside.
- Joseph Sullivan – 70-grade runner, modest pop, passive approach, regular role possible.
To see the list, click here.
