Once again, the Dodgers system is strong. However, unlike previous years, there’s more depth this time than Top 50 prospects.
When I look at the top of the system with Dalton Rushing, River Ryan, and Diego Cartaya, they all have a chance to be impact MLB players, but I have concerns about each. While I’ll let you read their capsules to learn more, I must comment on Cartaya. I was all-in on him this time last year. However, he’s on his way to breaking my heart. It was a terrible year. I hear great things about his makeup and “want,” so I hope he can turn things around.
Even with the graduation of Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and James Outman, the Dodgers still have a Top 5 system in the game. There are close to 4,500 words for you to wade through…Enjoy!
Prospect Snapshot
- Top Prospect: Dalton Rushing
- Biggest Mover: Josue De Paula and Thayron Liranzo
- Biggest Disappointment: Diego Cartaya
- Emerging Prospect: Joendry Vargas and Eduardo Quintero
1. Dalton Rushing (C/1B)
- Highest Level: High-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 C
- Tools Summary: He has above-average power with high on-base skills. There is some swing-and-miss in his game.
Dalton Rushing had a solid season for the Dodgers in 2023, slashing 228/.404/.452 in 89 games in High-A. He also hit 15 home runs while striking out 24% of the time and posting a 19% BB-Rate. His approach has some passivity, which might cause problems as he starts to face better pitching, but he’s also highly knowledgeable of the strike zone and doesn’t swing at balls outside the zone.
His bat speed is average, and he can be beaten with high-end velocity, but I also believe there is enough physicality that he should hit 15 to 20 home runs annually.
He’s a solid prospect, but I’ll stop short of calling him an elite prospect until I see him hit better pitching. I have some concerns.
2. River Ryan (RHP)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 SP with upside.
- Tools Summary: Athletic pitcher with a plus fastball-cutter and an improving change-up. He needs to focus on throwing strikes, and with his athleticism, odds are he will.
The Padres selected River Ryan in the 11th round of the 2021 Draft but traded him to the Dodgers for Matt Beaty shortly after the 2021 season ended. He was a two-way player at the University of North Carolina at Pembroke and got 39 at-bats in the Complex League with the Padres, where he hit .308. Once he was traded to the Dodgers, he focused exclusively on pitching. He has a plus arsenal with a fastball that will touch 98 MPH, with big spin (2300 RPM), and a nasty cutter. The change-up has improved, showing a ton of fade and deception.
He doesn’t throw consistent strikes, but he’s athletic enough that the odds favor that he will eventually. He turned 25 in August, so he’s getting a little long in the tooth to be an elite prospect, but based on the stuff and athleticism, the ceiling is a number three starter, maybe more.
3. Diego Cartaya (C)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2025 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 Catcher with risk
- Tools Summary: He came into camp out of shape and never got it going. No other way to say it. It was a bad season, and his prospect status has fallen.
Diego Cartaya came into camp out of shape, showing reduced bat speed and too much swing-and-miss. The result is he hit .189 with a .379 SLG. He did hit 19 home runs, but when you only hit ten doubles and struck out nearly 30% of the time, the swing is problematic. I’ve heard conflicting things about the weight gain, but many things went poorly for the young catcher in 2023.
It was an unexpected bad season that caught the Dodgers off guard. They are saying all the right things (young kids struggle), but clearly, he was not ready for the challenge of Double-A. Can he right the ship? Absolutely. The Dodgers have publicly discussed his makeup and work ethic and believe he has all the tools, both physically and emotionally, to be an impact Major Leaguer.
As a fantasy owner, you have to be patient. If by July of 2024, he’s still struggling, then it’s time to worry. Plus, he’s lost all his trade value as he’s no longer a Top 50 prospect and might not be a Top 100 guy. How the mighty have fallen.
4. Gavin Stone (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP
- Tools Summary: His velocity and movement were off early in the season but seemed to return to form over the summer.
With all the early injuries to the Dodgers pitching staff, many young pitchers got their chance. Gavin Stone was one of them and really struggled.
Statcast showed diminished stuff early in the season with a fastball sitting 91 to 93 with poor spin. Consequently, he got hit hard and was sent back to the minor leagues. The velocity returned over the summer, and by September, his fastball was sitting 94 to 95 MPH and getting a 23% whiff rate. His signature pitch is his change-up with significant fade. He was able to post a 41% whiff rate with the pitch, which was also his most used pitch.
He might not have the fastball to pitch at the top of the rotation like I thought entering the season, but he’s much better than he showed in 2023. I still think he can be a mid-rotation starter. He has solid control of his pitches, and with his change-up, I think he strikes out a batter an inning.
He’ll be cheap at the draft table next season, and there’s a good chance I’ll take a late-round gamble on him.
5. Josue De Paula (OF)
- Highest Level: Low-A ETA: 2026 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 30 OF with risk
- Tools Summary: He’s athletic with great speed and is proving that he can control the strike zone. There is an All-Star ceiling.
When it was time for the Complex League to start their season, it seemed reasonable that Josue De Paula would start his stateside career in Arizona. Instead, the Dodgers deployed him to Rancho Cucamonga in the California League (Low-A) at the end of May. While he looked overwhelmed at times, in the end, he held his own as the fourth youngest player in the league.
He made excellent swing decisions, posting an 18% K-Rate while walking 13.5% of the time. While he’s a plus runner, his speed could fade as he fills out and starts to develop power. While it’s hard to believe that a kid who hit two homes with a .372 SLG could develop 20+ home run pop, he has excellent bat speed that, once he fills out and gets stronger, the power should develop.
He’s one of the more exciting prospects in the system and could see a significant step forward next season. Now is the time to invest if you’re in a shallow Dynasty League.
6. Andy Pages (OF)
- Highest Level: Triple-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 OF
- Tools Summary: His carrying tool is potentially enormous future power.
Andy Pages looked poised to join the Dodgers in the second half of the season when he tore his labrum in his shoulder the day after being promoted to Triple-A. He has massive power to all fields and projects to have 25+ home run power at the highest level. He’s always posted average strikeout rates but will chase pitches outside the zone, especially breaking balls. Early in his career, there could be some modest speed (5 to 10 stolen bases), but as he fills out, the speed will reduce. His ceiling is a power-hitting, middle-of-the-order right fielder with some pressure on his batting average but with 100 points on top of it for OBP.
7. Michael Busch (2B)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 2B or Top 50 OF
- Tools Summary: He showed improved contact without losing any power. However, when he got a chance to perform in LA, he hit .167.
Michael Busch got his chance in Los Angeles this season, and it didn’t go as he wanted. He only hit .167 in 25 games. If you’re looking for a silver lining, the few balls he did hit, he hit them hard with a max velocity of 108.3 MPH.
His 2023 Triple-A season was great! He reduced his strikeout rate considerably without losing any power, slugging .618. He still has the upside of an impact performer with 25+ home run pop who can post a high on-base percentage. His biggest hurdle is that he’ll turn 26 in November and needs to find a way to break through.
8. Kyle Hurt (RHP)
- Highest Level: Majors ETA: 2023 Fantasy Ceiling: Closer or Top 45 SP
- Tools Summary: He’s athletic with his arsenal, taking a meaningful step forward, including his control.
Kyle Hurt was drafted in the 5th round of the shortened 2020 Draft. He has split his time between starting and the bullpen, as he was not showing the control needed to be a starter. However, in 2023, the control was more consistent, and the secondary pitches, particularly his change-up, missed plenty of bats. He was fourth in all the minor leagues in K% at 39% and tops in SWST% at 28.6% (200 min batters faced).
He has a diverse arsenal but relies on his two-seamer, which is up to 97 MPH, and his nasty double-plus change-up with a 60% whiff rate. His breaking pitches do not have high spin rates. Instead, he relies on horizontal run to fool batters. It worked in 2023 very well.
The biggest question is whether he’ll start or pitch out of the bullpen. The Dodgers have had him in both roles. Oddly, they bookended him in 2023. He began the season as a bullpen arm, then pitched mainly as a starter in the middle part of the season before ending the season in the bullpen, including a late-season call-up to Los Angeles.
9. Nick Frasso (RHP)
- Highest Level: Double-A ETA: 2024 Fantasy Ceiling: Top 45 SP or Closer
- Tools Summary: He’s 6-foot-5, athletic, with a fastball that can touch the upper 90s.
Nick Frasso is a sinker-slider pitcher with plenty of athleticism that allows him to repeat his delivery. The sinker is thrown at high velocity and spin, presenting unique challenges to hitters.
The pitch is more swing-and-miss than a typical sinker, so his 29% whiff rate is unsurprising. His slider is his signature pitch that doesn’t have a huge velocity separation with his fastball but has plenty of horizontal run and is just a nasty pitch. His change-up isn’t very good, and he rarely throws it.
His lack of a change-up makes me pause that he might eventually wind up in the bullpen. However, the sinker-slider combination is so good that he will get big-league batters out.
10. Joendry Vargas (SS)
- Highest Level: DSL ETA: 2027+ Fantasy Ceiling: Top 15 SS with risk
- Tools Summary: He can potentially be a power-hitting infielder in the mold of Xander Bogaerts.
The Dodgers have been surprisingly uneven in recruiting young Latin players of late. Diego Cartaya is already an elite prospect, and the early returns on Josue De Paula are encouraging. On the other side are Luis Rodriguez and Wilman Diaz. The early returns on both have not been good, with serious questions on their prospect viability.
In 2023, the Dodgers went big again and spent over $2 million to sign one of the class’s top players, Joendry Vargas. The early returns are pretty impressive. In 48 games in the DSL, he was one of the league’s stars. He slashed .328/.423/.529 with seven home runs and nine stolen bases, walking as much as he struck out (14.4% BB-Rate, 14.9% K-Rate).
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